CASHING IN ON THE BEST NEW MULTINATIONALS SMART U.S. COMPANIES ARE GROWING BY GOING GLOBAL. HERE ARE SIX STOCKS THAT ARE GETTING WORLDLY THE RIGHT WAY.
By DUFF J. MCDONALD REPORTER ASSOCIATE: JENNIFER FUNKE

(MONEY Magazine) – MOST GREAT BLUE-CHIP GROWTH STOCKS OF THE past 20 years share a common trait: rapid international expansion contributed mightily to their success. Think for a moment about three of the world's best-known corporations: Coca-Cola, Gillette and McDonald's. Each of these behemoths has boosted foreign sales to more than half its total revenues over the past 15 years. Largely as a result, their earnings have grown at an average annual rate of at least 14% over that period. Foreign sales are key, because by the time a company reaches the multibillion-dollar mark, it usually has long since exploited its best opportunities in the U.S. "Then, a business logically turns to foreign sales to maintain double-digit growth," says Elizabeth Mackay, chief investment strategist at Bear Stearns in New York City. In addition, foreign markets usually offer higher growth rates than ours.

Choosing successful multinationals requires more than just looking for companies with the biggest foreign sales, however. The potential payoff is greatest if you can spot firms that are still early in their global expansion. That way, you'll be able to ride the wave, perhaps for decades. To find such companies, we screened a database of 9,500 publicly traded corporations for those with sales between $500 million and $5 billion. That left us with firms that were large enough to compete overseas but still small enough to have plenty of room to grow. Then we looked for companies where foreign sales were already rising rapidly but still amounted to less than 50% of total revenues--in most cases, far less. Finally, we wanted businesses whose international sales were growing faster than those at home.

Ultimately, we uncovered six new globetrotters that top analysts believe can post stock-price gains of 23% to 56% over the next 12 months. They range from personal computermaker Gateway 2000 to motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson. Here's a look at the six stocks in order of their potential returns:

Gateway 2000 (ticker symbol: GATE; recently traded on NASDAQ at $26.25; no yield). Investors hoping to catch international expansion early have an ideal candidate in computermaker Gateway 2000 (estimated 1996 sales: $4.3 billion). While many of its competitors, such as Compaq and Hewlett-Packard, have international sales of more than 50%, this North Sioux City, S.D. company currently gets only 15% of its business abroad. Nonetheless, Gateway's foreign sales are now growing 35% to 45% a year--about 10 percentage points faster than its domestic business--says Paine Webber analyst Michael Kwatinetz.

Gateway, Kwatinetz figures, can gain ground against formidable competitors because it is the leading direct marketer of computers worldwide. Buyers can custom- order an IBM-compatible personal computer merely by calling an 800 number. "As worldwide PC buyers become more experienced, they want more power for less money--and that's what direct mail offers," says analyst Wendy Abramowitz at Argus Research in New York City. She thinks Gateway's stock could trade for about 15 times her 1996 estimated earnings of $2.80. That would mean a stock price of $41--or a 56% gain over the next 12 months.

Alberto-Culver "A" shares (ACVA; New York Stock Exchange; $36; 1%). Foreign business currently accounts for 30% of this health- and beauty-aid company's $1.6 billion total revenues. Last year, however, international sales lathered up by a stunning 24%, thanks in part to acquisitions. For instance, Alberto-Culver's 1995 purchase of Molnlycke, a $100 million Swedish toiletries firm, made the company a leading marketer of consumer packaged goods in Scandinavia. Also, Alberto-Culver recently purchased St. Ives Laboratories in Chatsworth, Calif. for $120 million; that firm, which makes Swiss Formula hair and skin products, already does more than a quarter of its business overseas.

Salomon Bros. analyst Diana Temple projects that Alberto-Culver's international growth could keep rising by more than 15% a year, compared with only 5% to 6% domestically. As a result, she expects overseas expansion will help push up the company's earnings by 15% this year. Temple recommends the "A" nonvoting shares because they are about 10% cheaper than the company's "B" voting shares, and she sees the stock rising 39% to $50 within the next 12 months.

Harley-Davidson (HDI; NYSE; $38.50; 0.5%). This $1.5 billion Milwaukee motorcycle maker ranks among the world's greatest brand names. "There aren't many brands that provoke such loyalty that customers will tattoo the company logo on their bodies," says Hambrecht & Quist analyst Shelly Hale Young. She adds that such enthusiasm translates well overseas. In fact, last year Harley sold 30% of its bikes abroad, which didn't come close to satisfying foreign riders. That worldwide demand figures to fuel Harley's growth far into the future. For instance, the European market for heavyweight motorcycles--where Harley now holds a mere 11% market share--is larger than that of the U.S., where the bike maker controls 53% of the market.

In fact, the chief brake on Harley's growth is that the company can't make its cycles fast enough. The backlog in the U.S. is more than one year's worth, says Richard C. Young, editor of Young's Intelligence Report monthly newsletter in Potomac, Md. ($99; 800-848-2132). As a result, Harley is scouting new manufacturing sites to gear up production--from 115,000 bikes this year to as many as 200,000 by 2003. Hale Young figures that Harley's earnings could move up 23% this year and that the stock could cruise to $50, a 30% gain over the next 12 months.

Boston Scientific (BSX; NYSE; $46.50; no yield). This $1.4 billion medical-equipment company is a leader in one of today's most robust health-care lines: so-called less invasive devices that reduce the need for traditional surgery. For example, the Natick, Mass. company's angioplasty devices use a balloon-tipped tube inserted through a small incision to open blocked arteries. International sales accounted for a third of Boston Scientific's revenues last year, but owing to the company's bold plans to grow globally, that figure could rise to one-half by 1999, according to Salomon Bros. analyst Eli Kammerman. The result: Foreign sales could grow 40% annually--twice the rate of domestic revenues.

The company's current formula for success is simple: Acquire niche products and sell them worldwide. Last year, for instance, Boston Scientific picked up products with combined sales of about $180 million by acquiring Meadox Medicals, an Oakland, N.J. producer of blood vessel replacement devices, for $400 million, and Heart Technology, a Redmond, Wash. maker of surgical tools to unclog arteries, for $450 million. Jay Silverman of Schroder Wertheim in New York City figures sales of those products could rise 28% to $230 million this year. Overall, he expects Boston Scientific's earnings to rise at a 25% average annual rate over the next five years and thinks the stock could gain 29% to $60 within 12 months.

Dentsply (XRAY; NASDAQ; $40.25; 0.8%). Even though its annual revenues total only $650 million, this York, Pa. maker of dental products and equipment is already a market leader worldwide. The company owns and operates 44 manufacturing and distribution facilities in 17 countries and sells more than 2,000 products. "It has some of the most well-established brand names in the industry," says analyst Timothy Reiland of Cleary Gull, a small-stock research firm in Milwaukee that serves institutional investors. Reiland thinks Dentsply's international sales will continue rising 10% annually, compared with domestic growth of only 7%.

Since aging populations in industrialized countries need more dental care, Dentsply is going after the $9 billion worldwide market aggressively. Last year, the company bought Switzerland's $30 million Maillefer Instruments, the leading manufacturer of root-canal instruments. Analyst Elliott Schlang at Hancock Institutional Equity in Cleveland also points to Dentsply's recent opening of distribution facilities in Thailand, India and the Philippines as potential sources of growth. Schlang thinks Dentsply's world-bridging initiatives will help boost earnings 21% this year. He figures the stock could climb 29% to $52 over 12 months.

Duracell International (DUR; NYSE, $49.50; 2.3%). The world's leading producer of alkaline batteries, $2.3 billion Duracell is fully charged for rapid expansion overseas. "The company's business mix is likely to change materially over the next two to three years, with its strongest sales growth in developing markets," says Deutsche Morgan Grenfell analyst Peter Barry. Reason: Developing countries such as China, India and Brazil are starting to switch from inferior zinc-carbon batteries to the more expensive but longer-lasting alkaline cells that have long been popular in industrialized countries.

"Countries like China and India are virtually untapped markets for alkaline cells," says Value Line analyst John Lyons. "And Duracell beat its only true competitor, Eveready, to both of these markets." Barry points out that unit sales of alkaline batteries in Brazil are already running nearly double last year's level and adds that Duracell has the biggest share in that growing market.

Barry thinks the Bethel, Conn. firm's foreign sales will increase 20% annually, compared with less than 15% domestically. All together, sales outside North America could account for 55% of total revenues by 2000, up from 46% last year. As a result, Barry says, foreign business will help power a 19% rise in earnings over the next 12 months, pushing the stock up 23% to $61.