GO WEST FOR THE BEST PRIME JOBS WILL OPEN IN A VARIETY OF AREAS, BUT THE PLUM POSITIONS WILL POP UP FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC.
By KAREN HUBE

(MONEY Magazine) – When it comes to your career, you needn't fret much about next year's slow-mo predictions. Granted, after the strongest employment growth in seven years--a robust 2.1% in '96--the next 12 months are likely to slip a tad. But look at it this way: Last October, the national unemployment rate dropped to 5.2%, hitting its lowest level since 1974, while joblessness in states such as Nebraska and North Dakota dipped to about half that rate. So even though unemployment will climb some--probably to about 5.5%--that still translates into 2 million or more new jobs in '97, down only somewhat from 2.4 million last year.

Looking for opportunity? It's definitely out there. But how well you fare may also depend on where you live (see the regional chart at right). "There are tremendous differences in the employment market across the country," says Malcolm Cohen at Employment & Training Consultants in Ann Arbor. "Regional mini-trends move a lot faster than do national ones." Whether it's the burgeoning population in Arizona (think: health-care pros and teachers) or the famous tech cluster in the Northwest, the economic engines in your area will influence your options.

The news: Hot jobs are especially available west of the Continental Divide. In the Northwest, Far West and Southwest, 46% of employers are planning to add new positions this year (4% higher than the national average), according to a 1996 American Management Association (AMA) survey of 1,441 companies. By contrast, only about 35% of companies in the Northeast are planning to add jobs. Metropolitan areas like Chicago and Minneapolis show only medium employment growth, but labor shortages are intensifying in the Great Plains and Mountain States. In fact, there are so many white-collar positions of all kinds going begging in those regions that Omaha employers are offering managers and tech pros up to $10,000 signing bonuses. Even headhunters are paying premiums for qualified candidates. "If a company doesn't pay a sign-on bonus to lure workers, we sometimes will," says Peggy Noll, vice president of Noll Human Resources in Omaha. "We pay an average $2,500."

Before detailing the region-by-region highlights, here are the big-picture trends, coast to coast.

--Thanks to slash-and-burn CEOs, including Sunbeam's Albert Dunlap and AT&T's Robert Allen, layoffs will keep rolling through the corporate firmament as employers restructure or swallow other companies. As a result, at least 450,000 mostly middle managers will be laid off in '97. But for every managerial job a company sheds, says Eric Greenberg, AMA's director of management studies, a tech job or a multiskill position will show up. "Employers are choosing applicants with the most skills," says Craig Schneier, a management consultant in Princeton, N.J., "say, an accountant who also knows the latest accounting software." To be primed for opportunity, suggests Schneier, "sign up for any training available to you."

You might also test the waters of a smaller pond. Most of the new jobs will be fueled by small to mid-size businesses of as many as 500 employees, which now account for a full 60% of the work force and generate 40% of the GDP.

--You'll also continue to feel a tight cap on wages. Average salary increases for '97 won't be much better than last year's lackluster 3.5% to 4%. Employee benefits will even lag that creeping pace. Your canniest bid to boost income? Ask for a bonus. Many employers, says Ira Kay, director of executive compensation at Watson Wyatt Worldwide, a New York City market research firm, "will award 15% higher bonuses than they did in '96."

--Again, to no surprise, the fastest- growing occupation in '97 will be the same one that's topped MONEY's annual hot-job list for three years running: technically trained pros, such as computer programmers, software designers and engineers. "Technical advances in the computer field have come so fast and furious that virtually everybody is either upgrading, replacing or designing computer systems," explains Mitchell Fromstein, CEO of Manpower, the Milwaukee-based international temporary-service firm. Such jobs are needed in almost all industries from manufacturing, which is increasingly automating machinery, to retail, which is computerizing inventory systems. Nos. 2 and 3 on the hot-job list are health care and sales.

--As employers keep the lid on wages and inventory, outsourcing will continue to boom. "We're seeing contracts for everything from food service to accounting," says John Challenger, executive v.p. of Challenger Gray & Christmas, a Chicago outplacement firm. Temporary employment, a form of outsourcing, will account for nearly 8% of new jobs in '97, according to the AMA.

Still, opportunity depends not only on what you do but where you live. Here's a closer look at regional trends:

Northeast. If you're a stockbroker, Wall Street analyst or other kind of financial services wizard, you're likely to find open doors throughout New England and the Mid-Atlantic States. Credit the ripple effects of a record bull market. Also look for openings at the sizzling telecommunications and chemical companies. Says Lee Hoffman, spokesman for Du Pont in Wilmington, Del.: "We'll hire more people than we have in the past five years--mostly chemical engineers and technically trained people."

In health care, most jobs will be found outside established medical institutions as the regional hospitals consolidate. New York City alone saw at least two hospitals close in '96 while two others are merging--Beth Israel and Long Island Jewish as well as Columbia-Presbyterian and New York hospitals. Instead, look for positions in home health care, physical and occupational therapy, and radiology.

Job growth is slated to be the slowest in the nation here--at just over 1%. One bright spot: Because of the high concentration of top-paying jobs, the Northeast will be the only region besides the Far West to match the average salary increase of 3.9%.

Southeast. Foreign companies--mainly Japanese and German auto producers and suppliers like Honda and BMW--will be expanding and moving into the region to find cheaper workers and more customers. "Atlanta is the No. 1 magnet, but manufacturers are moving into all areas for their warm climates and lower labor costs," says James Smith, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina. That influx has created across-the-board opportunity in health care, retail, computers and support staffs, such as paralegals.

Southbound retirees are also boosting the economy. In Myrtle Beach, S.C., for example, about a hundred 18-hole golf courses were built in the past five years.

With the rapidly growing economy and abundant labor, there will be little pressure on employers to increase wages. Look for the lowest salary raises in the country here--at 3.7%.

South. In the past three years alone, the fever for gambling has created 35,000 jobs in this region. In 1997, as casinos and riverboats multiply, the industry will swallow a record number of employees, from dealers to accountants. An offshoot of the boom, hotels and restaurants are proliferating along the Mississippi River and the interstate highways, creating jobs for hoteliers, food-services managers and chefs plus security personnel and travel- services pros. Education jobs, particularly for kindergarten and elementary school, will also be found aplenty, particularly in Alabama. Young families will be heading south to find lower housing costs.

Unemployment is still high in some areas--about 6% in Mississippi--but likely to inch down over the next 12 months.

Midwest. The growing and aging population will drive the job market here--particularly in health care, education and urban development. "For the first time since 1986," says Yishai Castro, an economist with the Michigan Employment Security Commission, "there are more people moving into Michigan than moving out." Elementary school teachers, child-care pros and pediatricians will be in short supply. In addition, opportunities are expanding among the Big Three, as many workers retire and profitability among General Motors, Ford and Chrysler climbs. "The industry is going to need everything from engineers to assembly-line workers," says Castro.

Average raises in the Great Lakes and surrounding regions will drop a tenth of a percentage point this year, to 3.8%.

Great Plains and Mountain States. No matter what your line of work, you're likely to be snapped up by employers here. "Companies are looking for technically trained workers and the whole range of professional support staff," says Omaha recruiter Peggy Noll, "from secretaries to accountants and human-resources personnel." The intense demand began in the early '90s, fueled by the exodus of companies from recessionary California and Texas. Opportunities are particularly strong among the telemarketing and data processing firms hired by credit-card issuers, catalogue houses and airlines. Such demand is putting pressure on wages, which will probably lead the nation at about 4% this year.

Southwest. Tech jobs will still be available around this computer hub, even though Motorola, Texas Instruments and Advanced Micro Devices have experienced layoffs. "Mostly middle managers were cut back," says Clayton Griffis, a labor market analyst for the Texas Employment Commission, "but companies are still hiring such experts as manufacturing technicians and circuit design engineers." Watch too for jobs in corrections in Texas: Plans have been drawn for six new high-security additions to the state prison system--already the largest in the U.S. with 105 units employing 40,000 workers.

Overall, expect strong growth. Texas hit its lowest unemployment rate--5.4%--in 15 years late last year, while Phoenix's job market is growing at more than twice the national rate.

Far West. With California rebounding and Las Vegas booming, architects, construction workers, retail sales staff and marketing managers will be almost as sought after as computer experts. After experiencing negative job growth between 1990 and 1993, California is now poised for growing employment, with average raises among the highest in the country, at 3.9%. "The natural growth of the tech industry has almost fully replaced the defense industry," says Manpower's Fromstein.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas will continue its phenomenal 17% growth in construction. Plans for casino expansion and new hotels--about 23,000 new rooms will be built by '98--create opportunities for a host of pros from architects and engineers to managers and finance experts.

Northwest. Washington and Oregon will remain America's mecca for systems analysts, software designers and other computer adventurers. And tourism is also flourishing, particularly in Alaska, which was visited by a record 1.2 million travelers in '96. Crowds are predicted to swell in '97. Three major hotel complexes and several motels are planned around Anchorage, Fairbanks and near the state's prime natural attraction, Denali National Park. Food-services and hotel management jobs are therefore on the rise.

Construction in Alaska will get a further boost from the metal-mining industry: Major mining operations will continue to be built during the year, creating jobs for engineers, site managers and accountants, among others.

Overall, then, the smartest career moves for 1997 include learning new skills, negotiating for a bonus and seriously considering a trek on the Oregon Trail.