AFTER BEATING THE MARKET, THIS TOP VALUE HUNTER NAMES FOUR STOCKS SET TO RISE 35%
By JUNIUS ELLIS

(MONEY Magazine) – The S&P 500 index has soared an incredible 58% since my June 1995 profile of Eileen Rominger, manager of Oppenheimer's $725 million Quest Value Fund (5.75% load; 800-525-7048) in New York City. If that 58% profit puts your portfolio to shame, be sure to check out the four stocks that this 42-year-old value hunter recommends now. Two years ago, Rominger urged readers to buy four low-risk stocks that then delivered 12-month returns averaging 41%, compared with 27% for the S&P 500 index. Eleven months ago, Rominger offered four more picks (see left for details) that have risen an average of 33%, more than 60% higher than the S&P 500's 20% advance.

Shareholders of Oppenheimer Quest Value can't quibble either. They earned 21% in the past year, vs. 18% for growth funds overall. Their three-year gain of 22% annually also handily beat growth funds' 17%. Even better, Rominger's fund was 25% less risky than stock funds as a group over the past three years, according to fund rater Morningstar.

Rominger's golden touch? "We buy exceptional businesses that appear too complicated or boring to hold the attention of most investors," she explains. "These stocks are typically mispriced at 70% or less of what a corporate acquirer might pay for the companies." Below, she names three such gems and reiterates her 1995 and 1996 recommendation of insurer Exel Ltd. Rominger figures the four stocks, all on the New York Stock Exchange, could rise an average of 35% in 12 months--the limit of her price projections. Her four picks:

--Lucas Varity (ticker symbol: LVA; $31; 3% yield). The September 1996 merger of Britain's $4.5 billion Lucas and Buffalo's $2.5 billion Varity, says Rominger, begat a $7 billion sleeper that's among the auto industry's leaders in anti-lock brakes and diesel engines. What many investors overlook is that Varity CEO Victor Rice, 56, and his highly incentivized management team are now in charge of Lucas Varity. From 1991 to 1996, Rice expanded Varity's operating profit margin some 80% to nearly 12% by slashing costs and selling low-return divisions. Rominger sees Rice launching a similar makeover of Lucas' homely 6% margin and boosting lva's earnings 26% next year, propelling the stock 45% to $45 in a year.

--Carnival Corp. (CCL; $37; 1.2%). Rominger sees this Miami-based cruise line, with $2.2 billion in annual sales, steadily strengthening its dominance of the $12 billion North America market via disciplined "yield management." This ship-filling strategy, borrowed from airlines, repeatedly reduces prices on unreserved cabins until they attract passengers prior to sailing. "And Carnival can afford to cut fares more than smaller rivals," notes Rominger, "because its 25-ship fleet is one of the youngest, most efficient afloat." That advantage could lift profits 21% this year and 13% next, elevating the stock 61% to $50 within 12 months.

--Ace Ltd. (ACL; $64; 1.1%) and Exel Ltd. (XL; $42; 3%). Both are based in Bermuda and sell excess liability insurance to U.S. companies. These arcane policies cover a specified amount of potential legal claims against clients that, for example, once sold silicone breast implants. Yet Ace, with $4.7 billion in assets, and $5 billion Exel aren't competitors, says Rominger. Ace focuses on bigger policies that provide an average of $135 million in protection, which kicks in after an initial $165 million in damages. Exel's coverage averages $85 million (after the first $80 million). And both are making a bundle, she adds, "because their costs are nearly half that of American insurers." As Bermuda companies, Ace and Exel are exempt from corporate taxes and the regulatory red tape bloating the overhead of U.S. rivals that market to consumers. Rominger expects Ace's operating profit to rise 14% this year and 10% next, lifting the stock 28% to $82 within 12 months. She sees fairly comparable earnings gains and close to 31% stock appreciation for three-peat pick Exel, where her 12-month target is $55.

ALL STOCK DATA AS OF MARCH 24