WHY YOU SHOULD PICK UP THE GOOD GUYS ON THE RUN
By MALCOLM FITCH AND DUFF MCDONALD

(MONEY Magazine) – THIS MONTH: --What to do with those Dow dogs now --Three acquisitive insurers offer gains of up to 38%. --A once-dim bulb glows with high-tech potential.

Like the evil crop duster's assault on good guy Cary Grant in North by Northwest, the Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate hike in late March has a number of innocent stocks on the run, along with the rest of the market. In the four trading days following the Fed's decision, sellers predictably dumped stocks that tend to be squeezed by higher interest levels, such as banks, brokerages and home builders. But also tossed out were many promising companies whose prospects are unaffected by rising rates. Some of them, say analysts, look like good buys right now. "The key is to find stocks in sectors that don't need a booming economy for big profits," says Hugh Johnson, chief investment strategist at First Albany in Albany, N.Y.

Accordingly, we screened more than 7,000 stocks, seeking industries that have tended to outperform the market when rising rates slow economic growth. We then canvassed two dozen analysts covering those sectors for large and mid-size companies that they felt had been unfairly sold off. The stocks appear below in order of potential return.

--Chiron (ticker symbol: CHIR; recently traded on Nasdaq at $18.50; no yield). Dragged down 8% by a biotech slump even before late March, this $1.7 billion drugmaker dropped another 6% after the Fed's move, as investors concluded that the risky biotech sector was no place to be during a market sell-off. But unlike many competitors, Chiron has real profits. "With revenues up 20% a year and a whole new batch of drugs on the way, Chiron is the biotech industry's defensive stock," says Jim McCamant, editor of Medical Technology Stock Letter ($320 for 24 issues; 510-843-1857).

According to analyst Anthony Butler at Lehman Bros., the Emeryville, Calif. company expects to gain Food and Drug Administration approval this fall for Myotrophin, a drug used to treat Lou Gehrig's disease. That would more than double profits in its $150 million therapeutics division over the next 12 months. And analysts think that a home-testing kit for HIV-positive patients might also pass the FDA's hurdles by year-end. That could increase sales 20% in the $680 million diagnostics division over the next three to five years.

Naturally, Chiron would suffer if the FDA were to hold up approval for its new products, particularly since high expectations are built into the stock's 39 P/E. But Butler thinks that since the firm has no fewer than 32 other drugs in development, any delay in approval will be offset by other new products. He sees earnings rising 65% over the next year, lifting the stock to $26, for a 41% return.

--Rite Aid (RAD; NYSE, $42; 1.9%). Since most of their revenue comes from sales of drugs and other household necessities, drugstores can usually shrug off rising rates. Rite Aid, the nation's second largest drugstore chain with more than 3,500 stores in 26 states, is no exception. Even so, the stock of the $11.1 billion chain has been knocked down 11% from its recent high.

For a defensive holding, Rite Aid is making some offensive moves, including the $2.4 billion acquisition of Thrifty PayLess last December. That purchase gave Rite Aid 1,007 new stores in key West Coast markets. While some analysts worry that Rite Aid may have trouble turning around Thrifty's lower- margin stores, Morgan Stanley analyst Debra Levin notes that Rite Aid has proved it can make such deals work. In fact, 61% of its current stores came through acquisition.

Other analysts worry about Rite Aid's overall debt load. But the company recently reduced its short-term debt by more than 80% to just $44 million, which figures to protect earnings if rates continue to rise. Meanwhile, Rite Aid trades at just 17 times estimated 1997 earnings, compared with 23 to 24 times for rivals Walgreen and CVS. Raymond James analyst Andrew L. Weinberg in St. Petersburg sees room for Rite Aid to jump to $57 a share over the next 12 months, a 38% total return.

--Anheuser-Busch (BUD; NYSE, $41.25; 2.3%). If you're looking for stability in a turbulent market, this stock's for you. The $11.3 billion St. Louis brewer holds a solid 45% share of the U.S. beer market. "This is one of the stocks you definitely want to own in a downmarket," says Salomon Bros. analyst Jennifer Solomon.

The brewer of such popular suds as Budweiser and Michelob has been streamlining its operations by shedding noncore businesses like Eagle Snacks and the St. Louis Cardinals baseball team. "The improved focus on the core beer business is working," says Edward Froelich, an analyst at Pershing/ DLJ in Jersey City. The proof: While the domestic market grew a mere 1% last year, bud turned in volume growth of nearly 3%, and international sales grew at a 15% clip.

Even so, the stock has fallen along with the market since the Fed raised interest rates. Despite bud's brand-name cachet, it now trades roughly on a par with the market at 17 times 1997 earnings. "This is one of the few global consumer-products leaders you can buy for a reasonable price," says Solomon. She thinks the company's more focused strategy will drive 10% earnings growth this year and push the stock to $49 within 12 months, for a 21% return.

--Medtronic (MDT; NYSE, $62.25; 0.6% yield). This $2.5 billion Minneapolis manufacturer of pacemakers and neurological products tanked 5% in the days after Greenspan raised rates. But analyst Eli Kammerman at Salomon Bros. isn't fazed. "The company's product line is so broad that it will keep growing no matter what the Fed does," he says.

The new products include Medtronic's implantable brain stimulator, which treats the tremors from Parkinson's disease. Analyst Michael Mullen at Cowen & Co. in Boston thinks that the device, due out in August, could fuel revenues and earnings growth of up to 20% annually over the next five years in Medtronic's $310 million neurological products group. Analysts also have faith in the company's new Kappa pacemaker, due in August as well. Although Medtronic already owns about half of the $2.3 billion market for pacemakers, analysts think the Kappa will pump up revenues 13% in the $1.6 billion pacing division over the next year. Though noting the potential for a price war among the four pacemaker manufacturers, Mullen thinks such a battle would hurt smaller players like $1.9 billion St. Jude's far more than Medtronic. All in all, he thinks that earnings will grow 20% in the next 12 months, pushing the stock to $73, for an 18% spurt.

--Ralston Purina (RAL; NYSE, $78; 1.5% yield). Even though this $6.5 billion consumer-goods maker has dropped 10% from its high in early March, don't dismiss it as dog chow. Analysts say that at a P/E of 19, 10% below that of its peers, St. Louis-based Ralston could be an investor's best friend. "Ralston has such strong brand names that earnings should grow no matter what happens to the economy," says John O'Neil, an analyst at Bankers Trust.

Ralston's $2.4 billion pet-food division (46% of revenues) is No. 1 in the U.S., where it enjoys close to 10% annual revenue growth. Overseas, where Ralston is No. 5, it's growing 20% a year as more owners shift to premium-priced, dry pet food. One threat: The price of soybeans, the main ingredient in pet food, has already climbed 10% this year and could go even higher, cutting into profits. However, analyst John Renwick at Morgan Stanley notes that Ralston increased prices twice last year to preserve margins.

Earnings just keep going and going at Ralston's other major unit, the $2.4 billion Eveready battery division. Second only to Duracell, Eveready's sales and profits are growing 10% a year, with the fastest growth coming from Asia. Overall, O'Neil sees earnings rising 14% and the stock hitting $90 in a year, for a 17% total return.

ALL STOCK DATA AS OF MARCH 31