STOCKS SAFE ENOUGH FOR MOM
By LISA REILLY CULLEN

(MONEY Magazine) – You know the old routine. You ask the salesman if the product you're thinking of buying is really safe. He pulls you aside, his voice drops, and he murmurs: "You did not hear this from me, but Ralph Nader just bought one for his mother." What loving son or daughter wouldn't choose the best for Mom? So when we wanted a dozen investment experts to recommend stocks that you could safely buy now, we asked them: Would you buy this company for your own mother?

Each of our pros came up with a pick that passed the Mom test--indeed, most moms already owned the shares. The selections said a lot about the parent-child relationship, as you'll see. Everyone wanted Mom's money to grow but without burdening her with more volatility than she--or her kid--could handle. Bill Paternotte, chairman of the investment committee at BT Alex. Brown, the Baltimore brokerage firm, said it best: "As much as I like talking to my mom, I don't want her calling every day asking why the stock was up 3% or down 5%."

What emerged is a diverse group of companies that are as appropriate for any growth-oriented but conservative investor as they are for Mom. The picks range from such technology hotshots as Cisco Systems to turnaround plays like NCR Corp. to the most azure of blue chips like General Electric. Most are household names, and all have sterling balance sheets to help them cruise smoothly through any economic slowdown. Even the smallest, $118 million Spacehab, which provides lab research facilities for NASA space stations, has a cash cushion equal to a quarter of its revenues. But there's one caveat from Alan Skrainka, chief market analyst for brokerage firm Edward Jones in St. Louis: "No one should own only one stock," he says, "least of all Mom."

YOU'RE NEVER TOO OLD FOR TECH. Jim Oelschlager manages Akron's $292 million White Oak Growth fund, up an average of 40.9% a year over the past three years to Sept. 10. That puts the fund in the top 2% of all large-cap growth funds. How has he amassed such a record? Thanks largely, he says, to such technology outfits as Cisco, 3Com, Compaq, Intel and Microsoft. Six years ago, he insisted that his mother Jerry, who is now 80, buy Cisco Systems (ticker symbol: CSCO; traded on Nasdaq at $72.15; no yield), the $6.6 billion San Jose network-equipment and software behemoth. Though she was frightened by tech stocks' ups and downs, Cisco has boomed twentyfold in the six years she has owned it. Analyst Terrie Murphy of Smith Barney in San Francisco expects the company's future growth to be powered by new products like the so-called gigabit switch router that moves data swiftly over the Internet. Now Jerry frets about the big hit she'll take from capital-gains taxes when she finally sells her stock. Says Oelschlager: "I told her: 'Sorry, Mom. For those kinds of gains, you'll just have to pay those kinds of taxes.'" He expects the stock to reach $105 in 12 months, for a total return of 45.5%.

Michael Metz's mother passed away in 1994. But that doesn't keep him from thinking of stocks she'd surely have loved. One such: NCR Corp. (NCR; NYSE, $35.85; no yield). Why a business so badly bruised by years of losses? Explains the chief investment strategist for Oppenheimer & Co. in New York City cheerfully: "All the surprises will be on the upside." The $4 billion computer manufacturer was spun off in January from AT&T, where it had been "a complete disaster," Metz says. But now a new management team has jettisoned low-margin computer manufacturing and is focusing on designing and servicing ATMs, automated ticket dispensers, retail checkout scanners and electronic payment devices. Shao Wang, an analyst for Smith Barney, expects these businesses to grow 10% a year over the next five years, helped by growing demand from Asian countries. "This company's on the verge of a dramatic turnaround," Metz says. Moreover, the company's plump cash reserves of $10 a share lead him to predict a stock buyback over the next year. He expects the price to zip to $51.95 in the next 12 months for a total return of 44.9%.

Two years ago, Kennard "Pete" Woodworth, manager of State Street Research fund in Boston, bought AMP Inc. (AMP; NYSE, $51.60; 2%) for his mother's portfolio. Although he wanted growth, he was anxious about safety for Mom's money. A $5.8 billion Harrisburg, Pa. manufacturer of high-tech connectors, cables and other electronic equipment, AMP is classified as a technology company. But its 56-year history and long market dominance of its industry make AMP less risky than the typical tech stock. "You've got 20% growth and a good-quality, large-cap stock that is selling at a price/earnings multiple lower than the market's," says Woodworth. That was safe enough for Mom. Currency losses have resulted in flat earnings in the past two years, notes Ann Schwetje, an analyst for Smith Barney, who also notes that a growing worldwide demand for components this year helped the company beat earnings expectations in its last quarter. As a result, Woodworth expects the stock to reach $70 over the next year for a total return of 37.7%.

BUY WHAT YOU KNOW. When Eleanor Blayney's mother was alive, her stock portfolio was noteworthy for its household names--Colgate Palmolive, J.P. Morgan, Pillsbury. "Mom wanted the visible, known, recognizable presence in a good sector," says Blayney, an investment adviser with Sullivan Bruyette Speros & Blayney in McLean, Va. That's why Blayney would recommend Mellon Bank Corp. (MEL; NYSE, $52.35; 2.5%) to her mother today. Not only would the giant Pennsylvania outfit be a familiar name to a woman who grew up in Pittsburgh, but the $44.5 billion (assets) holding company is an established player in the financial services industry. In addition to banking, Mellon offers trust-management services through Boston Co.; mutual funds and portfolio management through the Dreyfus Corp.; and Internet trading through discount broker Pacific Brokerage Services. Despite the run-up in the prices of many financial services companies, "Mellon is still one of the cheaper places to buy growth," says George Bicher, an analyst for BT Alex. Brown. The company's P/E is only 16 times estimated 1998 earnings vs. 19 or so for the market, and he expects the stock to be at $65 in a year. That would be a total return of 26.7%.

When Alan Skrainka suggested earlier this year that his mother Yvonne, 65, buy Intel (INTC; Nasdaq, $95.25; 0.1%), he was amazed to discover that she knew what this $26 billion Santa Clara, Calif. company did. Not surprising. Intel's flashy ads are ubiquitous, and its chips are in eight out of every 10 personal computers. Skrainka predicts that PC demand will continue to grow at 15% to 20% a year, sustaining the need for an Intel inside. Moreover, with its $8 billion in cash, "Intel has pockets deep enough to stay one step ahead of the competition," Skrainka says. Mona Eraiba, senior vice president of research at Gruntal & Co., expects the company "to continue dominating the chip market" as it upgrades its famous line of Pentium chips over the next two years. Meanwhile, the company sells at a market multiple of 20 times 1998 estimated earnings. Skrainka's target price is $120 over the next year, for a total return of 26.1%.

Ronald Roge's mom is "a mainstream person," he says. "She understands the market goes up and down, but she does not want a lot of risk." That's apparent from his stock recommendation for Nancy Roge, 76: General Electric (GE; NYSE, $65; 1.6%). "It's a solid, diversified company that will continue to do well for a long, long time," says Ronald, a financial adviser with R.W. Roge & Co. in Bohemia, N.Y. Diversified is an understatement. Nancy uses GE light bulbs and watches NBC-TV, but the $50 billion Fairfield, Conn. company is also in financial services, industrial manufacturing, power generators, aerospace systems and more. Larry Feiler of Prudential Securities credits the stock's performance to a companywide quality-improvement program that will cut costs by $10 billion to $12 billion over the next four years and an ongoing stock buyback plan. He figures the stock will reach $80 over the next year for a total return of 24.7%.

Though she's not an investment buff, even Shirlee Miller, 71, knows who Warren Buffett is. That's one reason her daughter, Columbus, Ohio investment adviser Peggy Ruhlin of Budros & Ruhlin, is encouraging her to buy Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA; NYSE, $42,000; no yield). The Omaha company is really Buffett's mutual fund. "He has Coke, the Washington Post and Disney, so there's some nice diversification there," Ruhlin says. The stunning sticker price and P/E of 46 times 1998 earnings, however, turn away many a prospective buyer. But, says Ruhlin, who holds the stock in some clients' portfolios: "I thought I was crazy when we bought it at $8,000." And analyst Peter Russ of Shelby Cullom Davis, a New York City brokerage, sees the price at $51,100 in a year for a total return of 21.6%. For investors with less cash on hand, the B shares--trading recently at $1,477--are within closer reach.

Frances E. Twiddy, a financial adviser in St. Clair Shores, Mich., recommends that her mother Helen Green, 83, buy Carnival Corp. (CCL; NYSE, $44.30; 1%). One reason: Mrs. Green had enjoyed luxurious cruises on Carnival's Holland America line to Alaska and the Caribbean. Another biggie: The $2.5 billion Miami company, which also owns the Carnival, Windstar and Seabourne cruise lines, has 40% of the cruise market and dominates the industry. Moreover, it is muscling out lesser players as the industry consolidates, says Arthur Weise, analyst for SBC Warburg Dillon Read in New York City. The superdeluxe Windstar and Seabourne liners attract retirees, while Carnival's enormous new vessels--at 100 tons, the largest cruise ships afloat--appeal to families and younger travelers on a budget. Twiddy expects a smooth passage for the stock to $53 in 12 months, for a total return of 20.6%.

DON'T OVERLOOK YIELD. Bill Paternotte's mother, Mary Waterbury, is in her seventies, and he sought a company for her whose dividends were solid enough to make up for any shortfall in earnings. He was also looking for a business she could understand and take interest in. Those criteria led him to Equity Residential Property Trust (EQR; NYSE, $50.95; 4.9%). Located in Chicago, the $565 million real estate investment trust owns 239,000 multifamily residential properties throughout the United States. According to Louis Taylor, an analyst with Prudential Securities in New York City, the REIT has "virtually unlimited access to cash"--in the form of a $350 million credit line--and can move swiftly to acquire properties. Aggressive acquisitions and modest rent increases spur EQR's growth, Taylor says, as do "huge operating and purchasing economies of scale." Paternotte's target price of $57 makes for a total return over 12 months of 16.8%.

Mary Kelly, an 80-year-old resident of Iowa, lived through the Great Depression--and she's never let her son forget it. "I think I'm a conservative investor because of all those stories," groans Brian Kelly, Mary's doting son and manager of the Founders Blue Chip and Balanced funds in Denver. As a result, when it came to picking a stock for Mom, Kelly offered his biggest holding, $32 billion Atlantic Richfield (ARC; NYSE, $81.25; 3.5%). The Los Angeles energy exploration company is "big, stable and has the underlying support of those fat dividends," he says. Arco's multiple of 17 times 1998 earnings reflects an uncertain outlook for energy prices, says Al Silber of Herzog Heine Geduld in New York City. They might fall, he believes, when Iraq re-enters the world oil market. But Silber says Arco's massive natural gas find in Indonesia will bolster its future earnings prospects by boosting production starting in 2001. As a result, Kelly looks for the stock to be at $94 in a year for a 19.2% total return.

TAKE AN OCCASIONAL FLIER. Martin Orgel, lead portfolio analyst with Freedom Capital Management in Boston, recommended that his mother buy Spacehab (SPAB; Nasdaq, $10.75; no yield). The $118 million company has been public for only two years, but it is the main provider of food, water and equipment resupplies for NASA's space shuttle missions and for the Russian space station Mir. (And goodness knows, that bucket of bolts needs all the resupplying it can get.) Also, it has about $25 million in cash. The stock has behaved like Mir, zooming from $12 on the offering to more than $15, then crashing to $5 before rising again, but Meryl Cohen, 49, likes the excitement. "She grew up in the '60s, when space exploration was big," says her son. "Spacehab appeals to her sense of adventure." Peter Aseritis, analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston in New York City, notes that aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed recently reached a tentative agreement with Spacehab to help them get into space programs. That's why he thinks the price will be at $15 in 12 months, for a total return of 39.5%.

MAKE MONEY IN MANAGED CARE. His mother is no longer alive, but Marty Hurwitz, senior portfolio manager for American Express Financial Advisors in Minneapolis, would prescribe this stock for healthy returns in her portfolio: HBO & Co. (HBOC; Nasdaq, $40.10; 0.2%). The stock split in September after reaching an all-time high of $83.50. Hurwitz says the $975 million Atlanta company boasts "a great track record for updating technology and improving productivity in hospitals," chiefly through its patient databases and other information systems. Analyst Christian Hester of Smith Barney in New York City continues to be attracted to its efficient management team, productive corps of salespeople and the trend among hospitals to spend more for the bigger information systems that HBO can provide. Hurwitz looks for a $50 stock within a year, for a total return of 24.7%. And that's the kind of stock performance any mother would love.