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MONEY's All Star Brokers Name Their Picks For 1998
By Junius Ellis

(MONEY Magazine) – Here are three questions that are bound to captivate both bulls and bears in today's high-anxiety stock market. Who are the best stockbrokers in America? What stocks are they telling their clients to buy and sell in the year ahead? And, most important, why?

For answers, check out the 30 stock picks and pans offered by MONEY's All Star lineup of 10 of the nation's top brokers. Our 1998 team is the eighth that I've chosen since 1988. It sports six new members plus four repeaters from 1997--the foursome's reward for recommending stocks that beat the S&P 500's incredible 36% rise over the 11-month season that began Nov. 1, 1996. Fielding four market beaters from a team of 10 is more impressive than it might seem. By comparison, only 26% of U.S. stock fund managers matched or outpaced the S&P 500 during that period.

Leading the four returning All Stars is Smith Barney's Jeff Auxier, pictured at right, a 14-year veteran broker from Portland, Ore. Auxier, who is making his second appearance as an All Star, scored an average 54% gain in '97. Merrill Lynch's Charles Dare, a third-year man and 37-year vet from suburban Detroit, finished No. 2 with a 53% profit. (Dare also placed second a year ago with a 44% gain.) Rauscher Pierce's Frank Sloan, a second-year All Star and 25-year pro from Dallas, came in third with a 49% return on three picks based in his hometown. No. 4 with 40% was Paine Webber's Cynthia Bassett, another second-year All Star and a 28-year veteran from Cleveland.

To identify our exemplars, I first asked money managers and prominent brokers to nominate brokers at firms other than their own. Candidates had to be willing to take new accounts of $150,000 or less and to have spotless records of professional conduct according to the National Association of Securities Dealers, the best source of disciplinary actions taken against brokers. Then I focused on attributes such as accountability and independent thinking that set All Stars apart from journeymen. Our 10 All Stars customarily:

--Base their recommendations on their own research as well as that of analysts

--Personally own the stocks that are on their buy lists --Avoid selling most brokerage products, whose gold-plated fees can weigh down clients' returns

--Give regular customers commission discounts of 20% to 25% in many cases

The following profiles begin with the four returning All Stars in order of their average gain. Their six new teammates are then listed alphabetically. The profiles feature each broker's top three picks (or pans) and market outlook over the next 12 months. Three are bullish; six are anxious; one is bearish. The brokers see their 30 recommendations appreciating 41% as a group in '98, in step with earnings growth averaging a bustling 29%. That's four times the 7% profit growth forecast for companies in the S&P 500. Yet the picks are priced 14% below the market's earnings multiple, recently 20 based on analysts' consensus estimates for '98.

JEFF AUXIER +54% in '97 Firm: Smith Barney in Portland, Ore.; 800-835-9556 Age: 38 Rookie year: 1983 Client households: 150 Account minimum: $100,000 Average account: $500,000 Outlook: Bullish Resume: Native of Portland; graduate of University of Oregon; career broker

Client profile: Local business executives and wealthy families including that of paper and textile magnate Robert Pamplin, who Forbes estimates is worth $550 million. Says Auxier: "Bob Pamplin has been a mentor and customer since my first job mowing neighborhood lawns 27 years ago at age 11."

Comment: "My demanding clients expect me to match or beat the S&P 500's return without taking a lot of risk," says Auxier. None of his three picks a year ago disappointed our readers. One of them, $16 billion financial supermarket American Express, quickly soared past his 12-month target price, prompting Auxier to recommend its sale at $68, a 46% profit, in our All Star midyear update (see MONEY's July issue). He held his two other choices, $2.2 billion (assets) Selective Insurance (up 57%) and $71 billion tobacco titan Philip Morris (up 37%). What about his replacement pick at midyear? Auxier recommended $6.6 billion property insurer TIG Holdings, which rose 24%, beating the market's corresponding 14% gain.

Picks for '98: Again buy Philip Morris (ticker symbol: Mo; recently traded on the New York Stock Exchange at $42; 3.8% yield). The New York City firm derives 65% of its profits from cigarette brands dominated by No. 1 Marlboro. A year from now, Auxier sees the stock at $51, a 21% gain, as investors favorably anticipate a much debated congressional settlement of smoking-related lawsuits. What if a deal is struck earlier--say, in the first half of '98? "Then the stock could hit $56, or 33% more, by year-end," predicts Auxier. Buy $1.6 billion (assets) PMI Group (PMA; NYSE, $65; 0.3%). This San Francisco firm has a 15% share of the fast-consolidating $33 billion mortgage insurance market led by $2.5 billion MGIC (recommended by All Star Charles Dare, below). Auxier expects California's resurgent housing sector (22% of PMI's premiums) to help boost earnings 16% in '98, elevating the stock 26% to $82 within a year. And buy $280 million Binks Sames (bin; American Stock Exchange, $44; 0.9%). A year from now, says Auxier, this obscure Franklin Park, Ill. maker of industrial-strength paint spray guns will be wrapping up a two-year restructuring and earning about $3.50 a share. His 12-month target for the stock is $53, a 20% profit from here.

CHARLES DARE +53% Firm: Merrill Lynch in Farmington Hills, Mich.; 800-937-0446 Age: 63 Rookie year: 1960 Clients: About 500 Minimum: None Average: $1 million Outlook: Bullish Resume: Native of nearby Bloomfield Village; graduate of Michigan State, where he lettered in tennis; career broker who heads a five-adviser group that includes son Charles Jr., 32

Clientele: Senior corporate executives and professionals in the U.S. and abroad

Comment: Dare, a growth-stock investor, last year recommended three companies whose price/earnings ratios averaged 19, representing a risk-reducing 27% discount to their projected 26% profit growth as a group. Pacing the trio was $1 billion Genesis Health, a nursing-home chain whose stock rose 72%. Credit-card whiz First USA, with $23 billion in card receivables, promptly charged ahead 68% and was sold at midyear. But its replacement, $5 billion credit-card processor First Data, slid 5% when earnings didn't live up to analysts' forecasts. (For the latest on First Data, see All Star John Jaeger on page 116.) Dare's other choice, $6 billion software house Oracle, gained 23%.

Picks for '98: Buy $4 billion Corning (GLW; NYSE, $43; 1.7%) in Corning, N.Y. "The world's dominant producer of optical fiber is a terrific but often overlooked way to bet on today's rapidly expanding telecom, computer and cable-TV networks," says Dare. He sees earnings arcing 23% in '97 and 16% in '98, propelling the stock 51% to $65 in a year. Buy $423 million Paychex (PAYX; Nasdaq, $39; 0.9%). More and more small businesses, notes Dare, are hiring this superefficient Rochester, N.Y. data processor to streamline accounting chores such as payroll, withholding taxes and corporate tax filings. Over the past five years, earnings have grown an amazing 33% annually while net profit margins have doubled to almost 19%. He sees profits rising 31% next year and the stock hitting $50, a 28% gain. Also buy $2.5 billion (assets) MGIC Investment (MTG; NYSE, $63; 0.2%), a leading mortgage insurer based in Milwaukee, on the strength of Dare's forecast of 26% earnings growth this year and 19% next. His 12-month target for this low-risk stock is at least $72, a 14% profit.

FRANK SLOAN +49% Firm: Rauscher Pierce Refsnes in Dallas; 800-677-2154 Age: 53 Rookie year: 1972 Clients: 225 Minimum: $100,000 Average: $350,000 Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Odessa, Texas; graduate of the University of Texas; career broker

Clientele: Business owners and executives who appreciate Sloan's focus on companies based in Texas or the Southwest

Comment: "I read lots of Wall Street research on firms in my area," says Sloan. "But I won't buy until I've completed my own grass-roots assessment." That can include interviews with a company's customers, competitors and mid-level management as well as top brass. Last year Sloan recommended three seemingly undervalued Dallas companies, led by $8.5 billion computer-chip maker Texas Instruments. The stock shot up a Texasesque 173%, amply offsetting two losing small-cap picks--$140 million driller Triton Energy (down 2%) and $126 million computer repairer PC Service Source (down 23%). Two of Sloan's three choices this year also have headquarters in his backyard.

Picks for '98: Again buy Triton Energy (OIL; NYSE, $39; no dividend) before a major oil company swallows the exploration firm to gain control of its stakes in promising wells in Colombia and the Gulf of Thailand. Unexpected production headaches plagued Triton in '97, says Sloan. Next year he sees cash flow more than doubling and the stock approaching $60, a 54% rise from here. Buy $370 million art auctioneer Sotheby's (BID; NYSE, $19; 2.1%), based in New York City and controlled by Detroit real estate magnate Alfred Taubman, who owns 63% of voting shares. Sloan notes that an investment group representing the billionaire Bass family of Texas scooped up 8.5% of the stock this past summer. What's up? Sloan expects booming bull market prosperity to propel earnings 30% this year and 32% next, lifting bid 42% to $27 in a year. And buy Dallas' $13 billion Kimberly-Clark (KMB; NYSE, $51; 1.9%), maker of Huggies diapers, Kleenex tissues and other paper products. Glitches in integrating Scott Paper, acquired for $9 billion in late 1995, slowed profit growth in '97, says Sloan. Next year, however, he sees earnings jumping 19% and the stock cracking $70, a 37% gain.

CYNTHIA BASSETT +40% Firm: Paine Webber in Cleveland; 800-533-6386 Age: 58 Rookie year: 1969 Clients: 250 Minimum: None Average: $900,000 Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Cleveland; graduate of the University of Wisconsin; began her financial career in 1962 as assistant to two veteran brokers

Clientele: Moneyed Cleveland clans whose accounts often extend through three generations

Comment: Last year, Bassett recommended three blue chips that, she predicted, "could quickly recover from earnings stumbles that had hobbled the stocks." All three delivered. Bankers Trust, with $130 billion in assets, rose 47%, while $29 billion Pepsico gained 34%. By midyear, third pick $29 billion Motorola had rebounded 42% to $64, two bucks above her target price, and was sold. But her streak was broken by Motorola's replacement, $400 million boating emporium West Marine. Its stock dropped 3% after the company reported earnings that were well below analysts' estimates.

Picks for '98: Buy brash $7 billion telecom consolidator WorldCom (WCOM; Nasdaq, $30; no dividend) in Jackson, Miss. for Bassett's 12-month target price of $50, a 67% profit. WorldCom's proposed $37 billion stock swap to buy $19 billion long-distance rival MCI appears to have vanquished MCI suitor GTE, a $22 billion local phone carrier. The record-setting MCI bidding war, says Bassett, "is revealing the enormous hidden value of leading phone and data networks, particularly WorldCom's." Buy $4.8 billion Staples (SPLS; Nasdaq, $28; no dividend), a Westborough, Mass. chain of 650 office-supply superstores, for forecast earnings growth of 33% this year and 32% next. Bassett's target is $35, a 25% rise. And buy Minneapolis-based Norwest (NOB; NYSE, $32; 2.1%), the nation's 11th largest commercial bank, with $85 billion in assets and one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders. She figures earnings will increase 13% this year and 14% next, boosting the stock 25% to $40 in a year.

RICHARD FRANKEL Firm: Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette in Los Angeles; 800-237-5022 Age: 56 Rookie year: 1972 Clients: 250 Minimum: $50,000 Average: $500,000 Outlook: Bearish Resume: Native of Los Angeles; graduate of California State Polytechnic; former aerospace engineer at McDonnell Douglas

Clientele: Conservative investors, often in the entertainment business, who have placed their personal and retirement accounts under his control

Comment: "Clients expect me to maintain a sturdy balance between growth and income," notes Frankel. "They're more comfortable earning consistent 12% to 15% annual returns than trying to beat a runaway bull market." Besides, Frankel predicts that 1998 will mark the start of a bear market sparked by a slowdown in corporate profits or a spike in long-term interest rates, currently around 6.2%, to the neighborhood of 7.5% to 8%. The bogeyman? Frankel sees one in Asia's mounting currency and credit crunches, which figure to force many banks and companies there to liquidate their stashes of U.S. Treasury bonds, depressing prices.

Picks for '98: Sell short Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts, also known as SPDRs and nicknamed "spiders" (SPY; ASE, $92; 1.5%), which mirror moves in the S&P 500 index. Next year Frankel sees S&P 500 companies' earnings rising about 6%, roughly 50% below brokerage DLJ's estimate of 13%, and spiders falling 20% to $74. Sell short $10 billion PC powerhouse Dell Computers (DELL; Nasdaq, $76; no dividend) in Round Rock, Texas. Frankel's only knock on the stock is its gold-plated price, lately 22 times estimates of '98 earnings. His 12-month target is $58, a 24% drop. And buy $68 million Interneuron Pharmaceuticals (IPIC; Nasdaq, $12; no dividend) in Lexington, Mass. In September, the firm pulled its Redux weight-loss drug off the market, citing safety concerns. Fears about potential liability lawsuits have dragged the stock down 64% from its '97 peak of almost $33. But Frankel says Interneuron has limited liability, ample insurance, $140 million in cash and several other major drugs now undergoing clinical trials that support his 12-month target price of $22, an 83% rebound from here.

STANLEY HEILBRONN Firm: Merrill Lynch in New York City; 800-624-6122 Age: 54 Rookie year: 1965 Clients: 250 Minimum: $150,000 Average: $1 million Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Manhattan; graduate of Fairleigh Dickinson University; career broker who heads a four-adviser group that includes sons Gregory, 30, and Andrew, 28

Clientele: Top executives at Merrill Lynch and in the media, one of the market sectors his group follows closely

Comment: While Merrill Lynch analysts cover more than 1,000 companies around the world, says Heilbronn, "We focus on only 30 to 40 undervalued stocks in industries like media that our clients know intimately." Among his largest media holdings are $13 billion Time Warner, parent of MONEY, and $10 billion Westinghouse. But Heilbronn isn't recommending either pet stock because, he says, "We've got three other ideas, including a Japanese turnaround, that promise more upside in '98."

Picks for '98: Buy $4 billion Corning (GLW; NYSE, $43; 1.7%) for the same reason cited earlier by All Star Charles Dare. Heilbronn adds that many investors fail to recognize how Corning has refocused itself as a technology company by selling its consumer-products unit (Corning, Pyrex and Revere cookware) and spinning off health-care businesses (mainly testing labs). Heilbronn's 12-month target, like Dare's, is $65, a 51% profit. Buy Japan's $39 billion NEC Corp. (NIPNY; Nasdaq, $53; 1.3%), which has commanding 50% shares of that stalled economy's computer and telecom-equipment markets. The stock has fallen 28% from its '97 peak of $74 in expectation of an 18% earnings decline in the fiscal year that ends March 31, 1998. Heilbronn sees both corporate cost cutting and a modest economic upturn in Japan fueling a 48% profit rebound in fiscal '99 that will lift the stock 51% to $80. And buy $818 million Callaway Golf (ELY; NYSE, $32; 0.9%) to cash in on golfers', including Heilbronn's two sons', insatiable appetite for this Carlsbad, Calif. firm's larger, longer-hitting and premium-priced titanium woods and irons. His 12-month target for ELY is $45, a 41% rise, aided by a 17% earnings hike next year.

JOHN JAEGER Firm: BT Alex. Brown in Baltimore; 800-638-2596 Age: 56 Rookie year: 1968 Clients: 200 Minimum: $50,000 Average: $1 million Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Aberdeen, Md.; graduate of Brown University; career broker

Clientele: Wealthy people, about half of whom pay Jaeger's annual fee (averaging 1% of assets) to manage their money Comment: "Working at Alex. Brown's Baltimore headquarters gives me a competitive edge," says Jaeger. Why? Software whizzes Microsoft, Oracle and Sun Microsystems are among the famous growth stocks brought public by the well-connected investment bank. So scores of wannabe Bill Gateses flock to Brown's headquarters each month to make presentations that, quips Jaeger, "I faithfully attend to gain insights and determine, once the slide show begins, whether the top brass, you know, glows in the dark."

Picks for '98: Buy $5 billion First Data (FDC; NYSE, $29; 0.3%), down 37% from its '97 peak of $46 after posting disappointing third-quarter profits. Next year Jaeger sees earnings at the Hackensack, N.J. credit-card processor rising 19% and the stock bouncing 66% to $48, aided by innovations such as fdc's joint venture with Microsoft to allow consumers and businesses to pay bills via the Internet. Buy $2.4 billion Amgen (AMGN; Nasdaq, $52; no dividend), down 25% from this year's $69 high on news of slower sales of Epogen, the Thousand Oaks, Calif. biotech firm's best-selling drug for combating anemia. Jaeger believes Amgen's $52 stock is a short-lived bargain in light of the firm's lineup of promising new drugs under development and $1 billion cash hoard, much of it earmarked for buying back shares. His 12-month target is $65, a 25% profit. Also buy $594 million (assets) IPC Holdings (IPCRF; Nasdaq, $32; 7%), an unrecognized gem among specialty insurers operating from its tax haven in Bermuda. IPC's forte is excess property/catastrophe coverage, providing an average of $15 million in protection that kicks in only after the first $2 billion in damages. "IPC is so profitable," notes Jaeger, "that it's supplementing this year's $1.27 per-share dividend with a special $1 payout in December." What could the stock fetch in a year? "I'm aiming for $39, or 22% more, not counting the fat 7% dividend yield," says Jaeger.

ALEX LIEBLONG Firm: Alex Lieblong & Associates in Little Rock; 888-805-4705 Age: 47 Rookie year: 1977 Clients: 350 Minimum: None Average: $500,000 Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Conway, Ark., where Lieblong sits on the board of the local bank; never finished college; ran Paine Webber's 20-broker Little Rock office for 10 years; launched his own three-broker boutique in June

Clientele: Entrepreneurs and bankers whom he first encountered while checking out their firms as prospective investments

Comment: "The banking crisis of the early '90s was a bonanza for asset players like me," says Lieblong, one of my top sources on the banking sector. In 1992 Lieblong told me he and his clients were loading up on the $12 to $13 shares of crippled megabank Citicorp. He still owns those shares, which now trade at $123. And Lieblong was the main source for my recommendation of Los Angeles' Coast Savings at $16 in my May 1995 Buy Sell Hold column. Now, Coast commands $60, an impressive 275% profit over 2 1/2 years, pending its acquisition by rival California thrift H.F. Ahmanson.

Picks for '98: Buy $460 million (assets) Servico (SER; NYSE, $17; no dividend), a West Palm Beach, Fla. firm that owns or operates 44 mostly full-service hotels affiliated with major chains, including Holiday Inn. "Servico is a master at acquiring mundane properties and transforming them into cash cows within three years," says Lieblong. He sees cash flow increasing 16% this year and 39% next, lifting the stock 47% to $25 in '98. Buy $587 million Grand Casinos (GND; NYSE, $13; no dividend). This low-profile Minnetonka, Minn. concern, initially a manager of gambling parlors on Indian reservations, owns three thriving Mississippi riverboat casinos led by gnd's 18-month-old casino/convention center at Tunica, 30 miles south of Memphis. "Grand's stock trades at only half the cash-flow multiple of its competitors," says Lieblong. He's betting that surging receipts at Tunica will pump earnings up 33% next year, boosting the stock 54% to $20. And buy $250 million Virco (VIR; ASE, $27; 0.3%) for a projected 30% rise to $35 powered by a 67% surge in earnings next year. The impetus? As a leading maker of sturdy school furniture, the Torrance, Calif. firm is Lieblong's favorite way to profit from the baby-boom echo--kids born in a bulge of nest building in the late '80s who are now swamping many school systems.

ROBERT MCLEAN Firm: Paine Webber in Philadelphia; 800-345-7941 Age: 44 Rookie year: 1979 Clients: 300 Minimum: $100,000 Average: $500,000 Outlook: Anxious Resume: Native of Philadelphia; graduate of Brown University; scion of the Philadelphia Bulletin media empire founded by his great-grandfather and sold in 1982; career broker

Clientele: Wealthy families and institutional investors Comment: "My customers are on the lookout for smaller growth-stock ideas that are thoroughly researched but not shopworn," says McLean. To spot timely buys, he taps into his Bloomberg database to discover stock purchases by corporate insiders that are not related to the exercise of options. "Such insider buying has popped up at two of my current picks, Triton Energy and Diacrin," he explains. "That's bullish in my book, even if the purchases are fairly modest."

Picks for '98: Buy $140 million exploration outfit Triton Energy (OIL; NYSE, $39; no dividend) for the same reasons mentioned earlier by All Star Frank Sloan. Delays in ramping up oil production in Colombia have turned off impatient investors, says McLean. He sees Triton's daily output, now 185,000 barrels, more than doubling to 500,000 barrels by midyear, turning heads on Wall Street and pushing up the stock 54% to $60. Buy Charlestown, Mass. biotech start-up Diacrin (DCRN; Nasdaq, $10; no dividend) for McLean's 12-month target of $18, a projected 80% rise. The trigger? Next summer, he predicts, Diacrin will disclose the promising results of clinical trials of transplanting living pig cells into humans suffering from neurological diseases including Parkinson's. (It's the first such study permitted by federal regulators.) Sell short Newark's MBNA Corp. (KRB; NYSE, $27; 1.2%), the nation's No. 2 credit-card issuer with $45 billion in accounts receivable. Rivals including $18 billion Advanta and $14 billion Capital One already have fessed up that mounting charge-offs of uncollectible receivables are depressing profits. So will MBNA, predicts McLean. He figures '98 earnings will come in about 10% below expectations, knocking the stock down at least 26% to $20.

JIM STROUD Firm: McDonald & Co. in Hudson, Ohio; 800-216-4638 Age: 43 Rookie year: 1985 Clients: 200 Minimum: $50,000 Average: $200,000 Outlook: Bullish Resume: Native of Cleveland; graduate of the State University of New York at Fredonia (B.A.) and Akron University (M.A.); manager of seven-broker McDonald office in Hudson, a Cleveland suburb

Clientele: Owners and executives of Ohio-based companies Comment: Stroud and partner Craig Pickering, 48, have complementary roles. Jim concentrates on researching stocks, while Craig is the customers' man. "We favor prosperous, low-profile companies whose stocks are priced at a risk-reducing discount to their growth rates," says Stroud. For example, his three picks as a group are projected to increase their earnings an average of 21% next year. Yet the trio trades for an affordable average of 12 times earnings--a 43% discount to that 21% growth rate.

Picks for '98: Buy $4.2 billion personal-computer disk-drive maker Western Digital (WDC; NYSE, $21; no dividend). The stock of this Irvine, Calif. firm is down 62% from its '97 high of $55 after WDC disclosed that escalating price wars in the latter half of this year will result in earnings coming in significantly below analysts' forecasts. Next year, however, Stroud sees WDC's push into brawnier, high-priced drives pumping up profit margins and propelling earnings 15%. His 12-month target is $37, a 76% rebound. Buy $241 million Encore Wire (WIRE; Nasdaq, $30; no dividend), a highly efficient maker of low-margin copper wiring used mainly in houses and buildings. Thanks in part to a 10% drop in copper prices over the past year or so, Stroud says earnings at the McKinney, Texas firm figure to soar 172% in '97 and jump another 21% in '98, elevating the stock 40% to $42. And buy $293 million In Focus Systems (INFS; Nasdaq, $33; no dividend) in Wilsonville, Ore., a Portland suburb. In Focus is the leading maker of PC-powered, graphics-rich projectors (average list price: $5,000) that are becoming standard equipment in corporate conference rooms. Next year Stroud sees earnings rising 28% and the stock hitting $44--a projected 33% profit for shareholders.