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Nearly Purr-Fect: Our Stocks Are Up An Average Of 36.6% In '97
By Jeanhee Kim; Sarah Rose

(MONEY Magazine) – Just how rich would you be if you had bought all 43 stocks recommended in this column between January and June? Well, who knows exactly, but you would be smiling like the cat that ate the entire aviary: On an annualized basis, our picks returned an average of 36.6% from the time they were recommended until Nov. 11, while Standard & Poor's 500 averaged only 31.8%.

Below we bring you up to date on our 10 best picks ranked by their price performance from the month they appeared in this column through Oct. 31. (Honesty also compels us to discuss a pair of underachievers.) We asked many of the analysts who initially recommended the stocks to talk about what they see ahead in 1998.

THE WINNERS

--Morningstar Group (ticker symbol: MSTR; recently traded on Nasdaq at $44; no yield). No, this is not the Chicago fund rater but a $530 million purveyor of flavored coffee creamers and other processed dairy products. It is up 85% since March mainly on the strength of its merger with $800 million Suiza Foods, another dairy company. Because the combined outfit will control more of the nation's dairy cases, John Bierbusse at A.G. Edwards & Sons still likes the stock and looks for it to hit $60 in 12 months for another 36% advance from here.

--Warner-Lambert (WLA; NYSE, $136; 1.1% yield). Two highly anticipated blockbuster drugs--cholesterol-reducing agent Lipitor and diabetes treatment Rezulin--have catapulted this stock 62% since April. Natwest Securities analyst Jack Lamberton believes that demand for these high-performance drugs will ensure robust revenues through 1998 for the $8 billion Morris Plains, N.J. pharmaceutical company. Though Lamberton doesn't think the stock will repeat 1997's blistering run, he expects 40% earnings growth to drive the stock to $165 in 1998 for a 22% total return. (For more on Warner-Lambert, see the story on page 60.)

--Franklin Resources (BEN; NYSE, $86.50; 0.4%). Since March, the San Mateo, Calif. mutual fund company is up 59%. "The success of the Mutual Series domestic equity funds has exceeded our expectations," says Bruce Brewington, analyst at Putnam Lovell & Thornton in San Francisco. High profit margins and a projected 16% growth in assets under management lead Brewington to believe that there's still steam in Franklin's stock, which could reach $110 in the next 12 months, for a 28% total return.

--Cisco Systems (CSCO; Nasdaq, $80.50; no yield). If you bought Cisco in June, as we advised, after the stock dipped 35%, you'd be up 56% by now. A threatened slowdown in European demand for the $6.4 billion manufacturer's routers and switches, the devices that move traffic through the Internet, never materialized. Even so, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst George Kelly believes the stock is still undervalued. "Nothing, except maybe bacteria, multiplies faster than Internet traffic," he says. Kelly looks for the company to deliver 29% earnings increases, driving the stock up 30% to $105 by the end of 1998.

--Medtronic (MDT; NYSE, $47; 0.5%). The demand for pacemakers remains steady regardless of the economy. That fact plus a two-for-one stock split in September has caused $2.5 billion Medtronic to climb 51% since May. However, the Minneapolis company's lofty P/E of 37 on forward earnings--vs. 23 for the medical-products and supply industry--leads BT Alex. Brown analyst Jonathan Osgood to believe that the stock will slow down in 1998. He expects the shares to hit $56 for a 20% total return.

--AirTouch Communications (ATI; NYSE, $38; no yield). This $4 billion San Francisco firm is the largest independent cellular-service provider in the U.S. Its stock has risen 49% since we recommended it in June. But growth next year will come from international markets, especially Germany, Italy and Spain. ABN Amro Chicago analyst Kevin Roe believes overseas sales will help increase earnings 50% and push the stock to $49 next year, a 29% return. (For more on AirTouch, see page 60.)

--Rite Aid (RAD; NYSE, $61.75; 1.3%). Up 47% since May, the $9.5 billion Camp Hill, Pa. drugstore chain is one of the nation's largest with nearly 4,000 stores in 31 states. "Drugstore fundamentals are strong, thanks to the aging population and its growing need for medications," says Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst Debra Levin. She looks for a 22% earnings increase to push the stock to $69 in 1998 for a 13% total return.

--CUC International (CU; NYSE, $27.75; no yield). Up 32% since June, the Stamford, Conn. $2.9 billion membership organization has agreed to merge with HFS, a $1.5 billion franchisor of hotels and real estate. The combined company, to be called Cendant, will lower its marketing costs and increase its membership base with cross-marketing. For example, operators taking reservations for an HFS franchise motel, like Ramada, refer callers to CUC's discount-travel programs. Paine Webber analyst Craig Bibb believes that this full-court press on customers will boost earnings 25% annually. He thinks cu will reach $38 in 12 months, a 37% gain from here.

--Northrop Grumman (NOC; NYSE, $106.75; 1.5%). Up 32% since February, this $8.5 billion Los Angeles defense contractor is merging with industry leader Lockheed Martin. Northrop shareholders will receive about 1.19 shares of Lockheed for each of their Northrop shares. Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Peter Aseritis expects that the combined company will reach $120 a share in 12 months. That translates into a hefty 35.5% gain from here for Northrop shareholders.

--Oracle (ORCL; Nasdaq, $34.75; no yield). This $6 billion software giant, located in Redwood, Calif., creates database programs for managing payroll, inventory and deliveries to increase a company's operating efficiency. The stock is up 31% since June. Packaged applications, consulting and technical support are growth markets for Oracle, and Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Esther Schreiber expects them to help drive total earnings up 30% next year and the stock price 29% to $45.

THE LOSERS

--Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT; Nasdaq, $24.50; no yield). This $70 million company is a major player in the $450 million gallium arsenide microprocessor industry. Its chips are used in wireless personal-communications systems, and an unexpected inventory glut knocked 18% off TQNT's price since we cited it in April. But the Hillsboro, Ore. firm continues to attract high-voltage customers like Qualcomm and Philips Electronics, and their continued support leads analyst Robert Toomey of Piper Jaffray to believe that earnings will rebound 78% in 12 months. He expects the stock will vault to $50 within two years, for a heady annualized 43% return.

--Fluor (FLR; NYSE, $35.25; 2.2%). In March, Wall Street analysts believed that the stock of this $14.3 billion engineering and construction firm could return 21% in 12 months. Instead, it dropped like a rock, down 50% when some of Fluor's contracts looked like they would generate poor returns. Indeed, 1998 earnings are projected to decline 5%, but Pershing/DLJ analyst Richard Henderson believes FLR will get back on track within 24 months. "Fluor's franchise is too valuable for the stock to lie down for long," he says. Henderson looks for a $60 stock in two years for an annualized total return of 32%. How's that for the cat's meow?