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The New Global Blue Chips It's a big world out there. You'll need the right stocks to conquer it. Here are 11 great companies with hot growth prospects, clean balance sheets and excellent management.
(MONEY Magazine) – Where on earth are the next great growth companies? Increasingly, the answer is overseas. Our stock boom may be cresting here in the U.S., but there are companies in Europe, Asia and Latin America that could be the equal (and then some) of such growth legends as Intel, Pfizer and Citigroup. Since it seems that everyone in today's global village has heard of Nokia and Sony and Nortel, we asked more than 50 portfolio managers and analysts for their best undiscovered names. Call these companies the new global blue chips--the next generation of growth stocks that we think are well on their way to becoming world-class companies. After identifying market leaders in industries from apparel to oil (and, yes, e-commerce), we dug into the financials, look-ing for the strongest earnings growth and the cleanest balance sheets. We also wanted companies that believe the shareholder comes first (a philosophy that's being embraced by more and more managers overseas). And we wanted a measure of stability in their home countries. Of course, we made sure their stocks are reasonably priced too. Despite their international addresses, most of the companies that we picked are available as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), which means they have to meet this country's tougher disclosure requirements and can even be traded on such places as the New York Stock Exchange. A few of these companies, however, are traded primarily on their local exchanges. That makes them somewhat more difficult to buy and sell. (We tell you how on page 83.) And that makes them more risky. (There's no International Securities and Exchange Commission demanding the financial infor- mation that's required in the U.S.) But it also means they are relatively undiscovered and can trade more cheaply than they would as an ADR available to a wider audience of investors. Another caveat: Owning foreign stocks can leave you vulnerable to currency swings, political shifts and economic unrest. To help offset the risk of domestic turmoil, we looked for companies with strong global businesses and smart, dependable management. Of course, you can always hire a pro to invest elsewhere for you, which is why we identify some excellent international mutual funds on page 85. It's a big world out there, and there's lots of money to be made. Before you start making it, remember that the stock prices we publish here are converted to dollars as of June 23. And use the table on page 84 to find the stocks' ticker symbols, the stock exchanges on which they're traded, and their 2001 growth rates and price/earnings ratios. INFINEON $84 Germany Last year's initial public offering for Infineon caused a sensation in Germany, where the investing volk bid up the share price 130% on opening day. "It was," recalls CEO Ulrich Schumacher, "a little bit out of control--in a favorable way." It's easy to see the enthusiasm for this spin-off of electronics giant Siemens. Munich-based Infineon is the world's eighth largest microprocessor maker by revenues ($5.3 billion in 1999), and it's the No. 3 "pure play" chip company, after Intel and Texas Instruments. Profits in its communications unit (chips for mobile phones, smart cards and more) are expected to soar 80% this year. And its DRAMs division (DRAMs are semiconductors that store memory and are used mainly in computers) should see profits jump more than 100% as the latest semiconductor boom hits full steam. Because of its five decades supplying the rest of Siemens, Infineon also makes an incredible variety of chips for cars and industrial uses. In fact, it holds more than 25,000 patents. "Infineon is a name to own," says Oscar Castro, senior portfolio manager for international equities at Montgomery Asset Management, which owns about $50 million worth of it. At a recent $84, its ADR trades for 57 times 2001 earnings. Infineon's PEG ratio (for price/earnings-to-growth rate) is 1.8, in line with Intel's 1.9 and TI's 2.2. While Siemens still owns 55% of the spun-off company (and accounts for 15% of sales, down from 30% three years ago), CEO Schumacher finds his management inspiration in Silicon Valley. Top executives get just 20% of their pay in salary; the rest comes from a very un-German mix of stock options and bonuses based on profit targets. "I'm trying to instill the advantages of entrepreneurship with those of a large company with financial strength and global scope," he says. "Just because you're big, you don't have to be slow or stiff." GRUPO TELEVISA $61.50 Mexico The rise to power of Emilio Azcarraga Jean at Mexican media company Grupo Televisa would make a fine script for one of its Spanish telenovelas. Episode One: April 1997. Televisa's longtime leader is dead. His son Emilio, a college dropout with a playboy lifestyle, is named president, but many doubt his ability to run the company. Will he sell or fight? Episode Two: Emilio survives boardroom power battles only to face bigger problems. Televisa suffers from heavy debt and bloated payrolls, and its TV programs are losing viewers to an upstart. Can Emilio save his legacy? Episode Three: Three years after his father's death, Emilio has slashed the work force, restructured the debt and regained TV market share. Profit margins are way up, the cable business is planning an IPO, and the purchase of Mexico's largest radio network will boost Televisa's recovering radio division. Analysts predict earnings will grow 94% in 2001 (after a hefty 40% climb this year), to $2.06 a share. It's a great story. Now the question for investors: Can Televisa sustain this momentum? Bill Wilby, head of global equities at Oppenheimer Funds, thinks so, pointing in part to Mexico's strengthening economy. "People are getting wealthier, more people are owning TV sets, more companies are moving into Mexico and competing for advertising space, which drives the rates up." Wilby also likes Televisa's formidable assets: 44,000 hours of TV programming a year, the world's largest Spanish-language film library and a major magazine business. "They're a content producer in a world where content is king." Of course, there are risks. Chiefly, the company has been slow to move onto the Internet. Its failure to join a recent Web joint venture with Microsoft and phone company Telmex this spring disappointed Wall Street analysts. Then there's valuation. The ADR price has nearly doubled in the last year to a recent $61.50. Still, Janus Worldwide and Janus Overseas co-manager Laurence Chang (with 7.8 million shares of Televisa in the two funds) argues that the company remains a good value. "They're increasing market share in every form of media, yet they're trading under 10 times cash flow," Chang says. "That's cheap on a global scale." COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT $2,533 Switzerland Thousands of dollars for a diamond necklace--sure. But for a stock? Well, think about it, because Richemont, a Swiss company that boasts sparkling brands like Cartier and Montblanc, may actually be priced more like cubic zirconium. The $14.4 billion luxury-goods group is trading at 18 times 2001 earnings, compared with peers like Tiffany (22 times 2001 earnings) and Louis Vuitton owner LVMH (40). Plus, Richemont is building a truly blue-chip franchise to match its blueblood clientele. Last year, it divested its declasse tobacco and pay-TV holdings and grabbed a 60% stake in jeweler Van Cleef & Arpels. It recently expressed an interest in purchasing the Mannesmann watch brands, and with an estimated $1 billion-plus cash flow this year, the shopping spree probably isn't over. The moves have been accompanied by increased attention to investors, observes longtime shareholder Caesar Bryan of Gabelli International Growth. "When I first invested in Richemont, it was really ragtag. Now they have analyst meetings, conference calls, investor relations." Historically, the company's earnings have grown around 15% a year in good economic times and bad. Richemont's sales remained strong even during the Gulf War slowdown, for instance, and its revenues increased 26% last year despite a recession in Japan, one of its top markets. Says an admiring Bryan: "I expect Richemont to grow at 10% or more over the next five years." RECKITT BENCKISER $11.75 United Kingdom Lysol cleaner and French's mustard don't exactly mix. But in a well-run business portfolio of household brand names, the alchemy can make gold. That's what the top executives at the British company Reckitt & Colman hoped when they bought the Dutch competitor Benckiser, owner of the Calgon and Vanish brands, last December, making Reckitt Benckiser the third largest household-cleaning-products business in the world, after Procter & Gamble and Unilever. As portfolio manager Mike Welch of the Oakmark fund puts it: "Reckitt had great brands but undermanaged them." Enter Benckiser, with a strong record of squeezing profits from its products, and a get-tough manager, Bart Becht, who became CEO of the new company. Becht says he'll sell off 75 of the company's weakest brands this year and will exit the lower-margin food business at some point too by getting rid of French's. His sales-growth goal for 2000 is 25%. How's he doing so far? Cleaning up, you might say. In the first quarter, North American and European market shares grew. Developing countries--where the company does 30% of its business--also provided a big boost: Latin American sales rose 21% in the first quarter and Asian revenues were up 11%. Trading at about 19 times 2001 earnings, Reckitt seems somewhat pricier than Unilever or P&G, which trade at 16 and 17, respectively. But its five-year future-earnings growth projection (23% annually) is easily twice theirs. SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS $313 South Korea most people know Samsung Electronics for its TVs and VCRs. But it also is the world's leading producer of DRAM memory chips, flat-screen display panels and CDMA cell-phone handsets. Last year, total sales rose 30% to $22.8 billion, and operating profits increased by 45% to $2.8 billion. So why does Samsung's stock trade at just 10 times 2001 earnings? "It's Korean," answers Brad Aham, portfolio manager of SSgA Emerging Markets. He means that Samsung Electronics is part of the Samsung chaebol, one of the massive family-owned conglomerates that have dominated Korea's economy since the 1920s. Inefficient and secretive, chaebols historically have not always acted in the best interests of outside shareholders. But Samsung Electronics has made itself palatable to foreign investors. After a crash in memory prices in 1996 and the Korean financial crisis in 1997, the company trimmed debt, shed 30% of its work force and reduced its ties to other chaebol partners. These efforts paid off in the first quarter of 2000: Operating income leaped 81%, and profit margins improved to 20% from 6%. The consumer-electronics business, once a loss leader, saw revenues grow by 50% in the first quarter and earnings by 20%. Recently, Samsung has benefited from resurging demand for DRAMs. Says Aham: "The technology they have is the best in the world, and their production abilities are very strong." Samsung's telecom business is equally healthy. Analysts predict compounded annual growth of 17% in telecom revenues through 2002, fueled by a 70% rise in handset exports. And CEO Yun Jong Yong is positioning Samsung as a pioneer in emerging high-tech arenas like third-generation mobile-phone networks and digital TV. Digital media products already account for 31% of sales. The real question, then, is whether the "Korea factor" will keep a lid on Samsung Electronics stock. Paul Matthews, whose Matthews International Funds specializes in Asian investing, believes the breakup of the chaebol system and improved relations between North and South Korea will increase investors' comfort level. The stock already has leaped 50% this year, and a widely expected ADR would jolt it even higher. "Samsung," says Matthews, "is emerging as one of the great blue chips of Asia." CEMEX $21.25 Mexico Toll-free customer service, rewards for frequent shoppers, store-to-door delivery in 20 minutes. Pizza? Try cement. Yes, Cementos Mexicanos, known as Cemex, has done the unthinkable: It's made the cement business sizzle. An acquisition spree has transformed this once sleepy family firm into the world's No. 3 cement producer, with operations in 30 countries. Last year, swelling demand boosted sales 18% and operating income 25%. And Standard & Poor's in May upgraded Cemex's debt to a rating higher than Mexico's itself. Cemex achieves such concrete results by investing in high-growth parts of the world. A full 80% of its business is in developing countries like Indonesia, where infrastructure demand is high and operating costs are low. Over there, cement is a brand-name product like soda and snack food, purchased in individual bags rather than in bulk. Heavy technology investing enables speedy, 20-minute delivery in its largest markets, and Cemex is a master at marketing to the so-called self-construction consumer. In Mexico, for example, where many use bagged cement to build their own houses one room at a time, Cemex gives out prizes to homeowners who use its products, pays for roof-raising parties and hands out tip-filled booklets at rural airports to newly cash-rich migrant workers returning from the U.S. This attention to customer service has made Cemex one of the most respected brands in Mexico. Shareholders have been well rewarded for its prowess: $1,000 invested 15 years ago, when founder's grandson Lorenzo Zambrano took over as CEO, would be worth more than $97,000 today. But since its listing on the New York Stock Exchange last September, Cemex's ADR has been stuck in the muck. In June shares hovered around $21.25, a tad below its debut price. That's just seven times estimated 2001 earnings--on a company that's expected to deliver near-20% annual growth for at least the next few years. The American market is underestimating Cemex's savvy management and solid balance sheet. "The international exposure has made this company much more interesting, plus it reduces its vulnerability to any one economy," says Goldman Sachs analyst Gordon Lee. His 12-month target for the stock: $35.50. BP AMOCO $58 United Kingdom Sir John Browne is certainly acquisitive. In less than two years, the British Petroleum CEO has made three multibillion-dollar purchases--including U.S. oil producers Amoco and Atlantic Richfield (Arco). No longer a regional refiner, BP now has a diverse range of operations from exploration to chemical production, hitting markets all over the world. Of course, it takes more than pulling out the checkbook to become a player. Browne has also earned a reputation for being one of the world's most coolly efficient managers. He's a corporate backbreaker who's famously adept at sniffing out, ahem, redundancies. That promises to boost BP's already-solid 14.3% average return on equity. "Browne has certainly proven that he deserves his stripes," says CIBC analyst L. Bruce Lanni. BP will eliminate more than 10,000 jobs with the Amoco merger and cut expenses by $4 billion. The company hopes to save another $1 billion from its Arco purchase. If Browne succeeds, BP Amoco will change from a restructuring story to a growth story. Earnings growth should be a gusher this year (up 48%) and a trickle next year (just 1%), but analysts see 12% annual growth for the next five years. And now's the time to buy: At a recent $58, it is trading at 20 times estimated 2001 earnings--below its five-year average of 22.5. Plus, BP Amoco pays a 2.3% yield, above the average for other oil and energy companies (about 1.8%). LI & FUNG $5 Hong Kong Here's a hot Internet play that's been around since the Qing Dynasty. Li & Fung--founded in 1906 as an exporter of fireworks and silk--is morphing into a sophisticated e-commerce company serving large retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch, Avon, The Limited and Reebok. Li & Fung is the ultimate outsourcer, taking on the production of apparel and toys and parceling each stage of the job to a network of 6,000 international factories. The Limited wants a new line of knit shirts? A team from Hong Kong-based Li & Fung customizes a plan that designs the product, sources the best yarn in, say, Italy, ships it to China for knitting and dyeing, then to Bangladesh for assembly, and delivers the finished goods to Los Angeles. With its 48 offices in 32 countries, the company knows the peculiarities of suppliers and the local regulations. It keeps track of everything, so clients can focus on front-end marketing and building a brand name. Execution is key, and managing director William Fung and chairman Victor Fung, grandsons of the founder, hold Harvard M.B.A.s and "are the most sophisticated managers in Asia," says Tim Tuttle of Liberty-Newport Tiger fund. He has about $20 million riding on the stock. "It's not just a trading company anymore, but a strategic partner for its clients." So, what's the Internet connection? With annual sales of $2 billion, the Fungs are now targeting small and mid-size business customers through the Internet, hoping to double revenues by 2004. They recently raised $250 million through Goldman Sachs and invested it in Lifung.com. The opportunity is huge: "Based on our research, there's a $54 billion market in the U.S. alone for our kind of services," says William Fung. Analysts expect the company's earnings to grow 30% in 2000 and 25% in 2001. Its 53 P/E for 2001 may seem high, but it is 2.1 times the earnings growth rate--not bad for a unique company expanding at such an impressive clip. ING GROUP $63 The Netherlands Okay, so insurance companies aren't the most exciting stocks on the block. Then again, ING isn't your run-of-the-mill insurer. With strong businesses in banking, investment banking and brokerage--and 15% annual earnings growth expected for the next five years-- this is the Citigroup of Europe. To be sure, insurance is where ING is growing fastest: About 60% of its pretax profits came from that business last year. But the good news is that ING continues to be valued like a bank, notes Ed Allinson, manager of SSgA International Growth Opportunities fund. In other words, it's a cheap way to own insurance, generally a more stable business than banking, and one that's growing quickly with the global rise in long-term savings. Oh, and did we mention that ING is sitting on an estimated $13 billion in cash? And that a younger, more aggressive management team is in place and looking to spend it? "ING's a dealmaker," says Allinson. Last year it bought U.S. life insurer ReliaStar Financial, which vaulted ING into the top 10 of the U.S. life market. The company has been in talks to acquire the financial services and international units of Aetna, the largest U.S. health insurer, but has been holding out for a good price. Whatever the outcome with Aetna, reinvesting all that excess capital in new financial businesses is expected to bump up ING's return on equity from its current 11% to 15%. "This is such an underestimated company; there's nothing in the U.S. that compares," says Robert Reiner of Deutsche International Equity fund, which has a $72 million stake in ING. "You just buy it, sit back and watch." TAKEDA $65.50 Japan With Japan's recovery on shaky ground, it makes sense to play carefully. Our defense: Takeda Chemical Industries, a.k.a. "the Pfizer of Japan." This 219-year-old company (you read that right) first hit the U.S. several years back through a joint venture with Abbott Laboratories. But Takeda is now focusing on its wholly owned subsidiary to develop and market drugs in the States, considered the world's jackpot drug market since it is the biggest and is less regulated when it comes to prices. "Takeda is trying to go global--and they're making it," says Valerie Chang of Neuberger Berman International. Two of its drugs, including the ulcer-fighter Prevacid, have surpassed $1 billion in sales each. And its newest star, the diabetes drug Actos, has captured a 48% market share in just 10 months. What about new drugs? Takeda spent $740 million last year on research. Big Japanese companies tend to carry big P/Es. Takeda, at 56 times 2001 earnings, is no exception. (It's certainly higher than Pfizer, at 36.) But then Takeda's 22% growth rate easily outpaces the industry's 17%. Besides, it's trading only a bit higher than its historical P/E of 53. And it remains the only Japanese drug name with a truly global presence. This stalwart recently remained unscathed despite a 10% drop in the Nikkei. As Neuberger's Chang says: "It's just a solid company." PHILIPS $50 The Netherlands When people think Philips, they see light bulbs. And indeed lighting accounts for a seventh of all sales at the 100-year- old Dutch company. But the real story is what you don't see: huge stakes in soaring tech firms, a chip business with megaprofits, and hot optical and flat-panel products for cell phones and laptops that are helping the company generate a high-wattage 54% earnings growth this year and a still bright 18% increase next year. Philips' semiconductor business is especially noteworthy. It accounts for 15% of the company's revenues but 30% of profits. (Only Intel beats Philips in chip profitability.) And the company's chips end up in half of all cell phones. (Nokia is a key customer.) Philips has a market cap of about $68 billion. Yet many investors overlook Philips' 25%-plus stake in Taiwan Semiconductor (adored on Wall Street these days) and smaller stakes in JDS Uniphase, ASM Lithography and a range of other companies. The market value of those investments: a whopping $22.6 billion, figures Naveep Sheera, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney. Philips also has $2.5 billion in cash, which brings Sheera's estimate of the company's true value to $93 billion, or about $70 a share. Last time we looked, Philips was fetching $50 a share. Hmm. Is that a light bulb we see over your head? |
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