(MONEY Magazine) – THE HOUSING MARKET IS COMING IN FOR A landing--and so far, at least, it looks like a soft one. Nationwide, single-family-home prices will rise 3.5% between now and June 2007, according to forecasters at Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody's Economy.com. "That's a decent increase," says Fiserv chief economist David Stiff. Still, it's less than half the past year's clip and well under the 9% annual rate of the past five years.

How will your region fare? If it was hot, with few exceptions, now it's not. Appreciation will slow to a trickle in New York and Los Angeles. Las Vegas prices will fall, and by next spring Sin City will have plenty of company in the loss column. "This slowdown is the initial stage of correction in many markets," says Stiff. On the other hand, a few ugly-duckling markets will see surprising gains as their affordability turns buyers' heads.

For an eye-popping view of how markets are changing, turn to the map inside the gatefold.

[THE FOLLOWING DESCRIPTIVE TEXT APPEARS WITHIN A DIAGRAM]

How Your Market Stacks Up

Forecast for the year ahead: There will be clusters of red-hot housing markets in Florida, the Southwest and the Pacific Northwest. But once-booming areas, including New York, Las Vegas, San Diego and Miami, will turn icy cold. The No. 1 market in the country: McAllen, Texas (who knew?).

HOW THIS WORKS

Check the map to get a feel for what's hot and what's not in the country's 100 largest housing markets. (A few liberties with geography had to be taken; we've flagged selected cities to help get you oriented.) Then turn to the tables at the left and far right for details on individual places.

Markets that are not visible on the map are marked with an asterisk (*) in the tables.

Circumference indicates population size

Each line represents one percentage point of forecasted growth

12-MONTH PRICE FORECASTS AT A GLANCE:

HOT 5.6% and up WARM 4.0%-5.5% COOL 3.2%-4.0% CHILLY 2.2%-3.2% COLD 2.1 or less

NOTE: Overlap among Warm, Cool and Chilly is due to rounding.

TEXAS AND THE GULF

McAllen, along the Mexican border, will be the nation's hottest market thanks to booming trade. High oil prices have added wealth to the region. Rebuilding helps New Orleans.

CITY/FORECAST

1 McAllen/11.4% 2 El Paso/7.4% 3 Dallas/4.0% 4 Houston/3.5% 5 New Orleans/3.4%

FLORIDA

Sunshine State fever is moving north and west, as more affordable areas heat up and Miami cools down.

CITY/FORECAST

6 Jacksonville/8.0% 7 Orlando/7.6% 8 Sarasota/6.2% 9 Tampa/6.0% 10 West Palm Beach/5.7% 11 Fort Lauderdale/3.4% 12 Miami/0.8%

THE SOUTH

Washington will slow considerably. Less trendy Virginia Beach will rise owing to its affordability and an influx of technology jobs.

CITY/FORECAST

13 Virginia Beach/5.4% 14 Charlotte/3.5% 15 Washington/2.6% 16 Richmond/2.2%

MID-ATLANTIC

With prices already twice the national median, the Big Apple and its Long Island suburbs face tougher times. Job growth and low prices will boost smaller cities.

CITY/FORECAST

17 Allentown/7.0% 18 Wilmington/6.0% 19 Baltimore/5.4% 20 Philadelphia/4.4% 21 Pittsburgh/4.0% 22 Edison/3.0% 23 New York City/2.1% 24 Nassau/Suffolk/-1.5%

NEW ENGLAND

High-priced Boston started cooling off last year and will get even colder. Undervalued Hartford will remain hot.

CITY/FORECAST

25 Hartford/6.5% 26 Stamford/2.9% 27 Boston/1.1% 28 Providence/0.0%

THE MIDWEST

This manufacturing-heavy area had poor employment growth and a housing surplus while the coasts boomed. But homes are affordable, and the job market continues to improve.

CITY/FORECAST

29 Cincinnati/4.5% 30 Indianapolis/3.6 31 Cleveland/3.5% 32 Chicago/3.4% 33 Detroit/3.1%

THE WEST

Las Vegas and California prices have risen so much faster than incomes that they're bound to crack. The Pacific Northwest, a relative bargain, will do well.

CITY/FORECAST

34 Seattle/10.5% 35 Portland/7.5% 36 San Francisco/6.3% 37 Los Angeles/2.3% 38 San Diego/0.9% 39 Las Vegas/-3.4%

100 BIGGEST U.S. MARKETS WEST AND MIDWEST

100 BIGGEST U.S. MARKETS NORTHEAST AND SOUTH

NOTES: The 100 Biggest Markets determined using 2000 population figures. Data as of 2005 unless otherwise noted. Metro areas are defined by the U.S. Census and often include multiple towns. Growth Forecast is for June 2006 to June 2007. Worst decline is since 1980. [1] Includes San Bernardino. [2] Includes Anaheim. [3] Includes Troy. [4] Includes Kenosha County, Wis. [5] Includes Newton. [6] Includes Wilkes-Barre. [7] Includes Frederick. [8] Includes High Point. [9] Includes Norfolk and Newport News. SOURCES: Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody's Economy.com, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, Homegain.com.

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