(gigaom.com) -- Amazon Web Services faces growing competition from a dozen or more legacy name-brand IT giants. But instead of taking a hit, it poses a bigger-than-ever threat to the those vendors — all of which are building their own competitive clouds, according to new Morgan Stanley research.
Oh, and the researchers project that AWS will hit $24 billion in revenue by 2022. Amazon doesn’t break out AWS revenue, but most pundits figure it passed the $2 billion-a-year mark about a year ago.
The fact that AWS has a huge lead in cloud over the rest of the world is not news to anyone who’s been watching, but these projections could be a wakeup call to investors who think tech incumbents — companies like IBM, Microsoft, HP, VMware, Red Hat, as well as every telco and hosting provider — can challenge Amazon in cloud computing.
“Applying retail economics to the delivery of technology services well positions Amazon Web Services [to be] a Top 5 vendor within the $152 billion TAM [total addressable market], ” according to Morgan Stanley analysts Scott Devitt, Keith Weiss and team.
The move to cloud computing means fewer companies will buy huge numbers of servers and storage arrays for their own use. Over the next five years, Morgan Stanley’s expects that 3 percent to 17 percent of current spending could be sucked up by cloud-based IT service providers. AWS represents a key risk for infrastructure vendors EMC, Brocade, NetApp, VMware and Qlogic, in particular, according to the report.
Other key takeaways:
And then there is enterprise software, where Amazon threatens VMware and Red Hat in the virtualization market. And, as we’ve reported, Amazon is pushing hard for enterprise workloads with its DynamoDB NoSQL database and RedShift data warehouse. Those AWS efforts represent a long-term threat to Oracle, SAP and Microsoft. In content delivery, where Amazon’s CloudFront is a factor, Akamai faces a long-term threat.
Morgan Stanley isn’t the first analyst firm to up the ante on AWS expectations. In January, Macquarie Capital projected that AWS would account for $38 billion of an overall $71 billion cloud services market by 2015. If you don’t like Morgan Stanley’s take on AWS, hold on — there are bound to be others.
The growth of Amazon’s public cloud infrastructure and its push beyond startups into the enterprise,will doubtless come up at GigaOM’s Structure event, where Amazon CTO Werner Vogels will speak.
Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
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