NEW YORK - Go, consumer, go -- spend, consumer, spend - mend, economy, mend - go, spend, mend!

I can just imagine Big Chief Greenspan and his tribe of Monetary Policymakers cheering shoppers on behind closed doors at the Federal Reserve. That's because nearly every time Mr. G speaks he says that the consumer has got to keep spending to keep the recovery on track.

So what do we see in the latest same-store chain store numbers?

According to Mike Niemira , a guy who watches these numbers VERY closely, a mixed bag but generally a move in the right direction: higher.

Mike is the man behind the weekly Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/UBS Warburg chain store sales report. He put his index of about 80 chain stores together back in 1984 and economists on Wall Street keep a close eye on it.

In May, Mike tallied up an increase of 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, up from 1.6 percent in April, but down a long ways from 6.4 percent in March. One story here is that an early Easter in March robbed sales from April, along with rainy weather that dampened enthusiasm for new spring merchandise. But sales were also a lot stronger in January and February though, at 5.1 percent and 6.2 percent respectively.

Many economists say early tax filers got extra-big refunds and that helped push sales higher early in the year. Same-store sales have averaged about 4.5 percent over the past few months, Mike says, so May's figure was still below trend.

A bright spot: many of the retailers he spoke to said that sales picked up in the last week of May as the weather got warmer and sunnier so some optimism is building for June to be a better month.

Mr. G's worry has been that if the labor market doesn't start picking up, if firms don't stop laying off and start hiring, people might get more cautious and less willing to keep on spending. That has to be true for families where one of the breadwinners is laid off, and only one is working.

The consumer has been a big linchpin of the U.S. economy. Voracious purchases of homes and cars helped offset the plunge in business investment spending last year, providing a cushion that kept the mild recession from turning into something uglier. After May auto sales came in less robust than economists and analysts had forecast, there's even more focus on the consumer.

I can just hear the Fed pep staff now: Shoppers! shoppers! Stay on plan!!! ... Cuz if you don't, recovery's in the can!  

Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy. She is also a regular contributor on Lou Dobbs Moneyline.