NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Nokia's revenue warning blew over pretty quickly -- the market, after all, has gotten pretty used to bad news from the wireless giant.

But there was one aspect of Nokia's announcement on Thursday that seems to have been overly downplayed: In addition to lowering its sales forecast for this year, the company ratcheted down its projected long-term growth rate to roughly 10 percent a year.

That's about 5 percentage points less than most analysts expected, according to First Call, and only a third of the 30 percent growth rate analysts talked about just a couple of years ago.

Nokia's admission caught my attention, because it's rare indeed for any tech company to suggest it'll grow less than a magical 15 percent a year.

Just out of curiosity, I pulled up First Call's consensus estimates of the long-term growth rates for a dozen widely-held tech names. Only one company in the bunch -- the behemoth IBM -- is forecasted to post gains less than 15 percent. Microsoft and Dell are expected to post 15 percent gains; Intel and Sun between 15 and 20 percent.

Great Expectations Earnings growth forecasts have gotten chopped -- but may still be too lofty. Company  Forecast (June 2000)  Forecast (Current)  Cisco  31%  20%  Dell  32%  15%  Microsoft  22%  15%  Nokia  30%  10%   * Forecast refers to estimated growth for next five years.  Source:  First Call

The rest of the bunch, including AOL, Cisco and Oracle, are supposed to do better than 20 percent. eBay, off in a reality of its own, is expected to post 50 percent gains evermore. (I've rounded all these numbers off -- when you're talking about five-year projections.)

These aren't atypical results: Chuck Hill of First Call says the typical long-term growth projection for tech companies is a not-exactly-modest 17 percent a year.

Unrealistic expectations aren't confined to the tech sector. While analysts peg the long-term growth rates for companies in the S&P 500 at an average of 12.4 percent, Hill notes, actual earnings growth rates are closer to 7 percent. "As usual, the analysts are looking through rose-colored glasses," Hill says.

During the tech boom, every company it seemed was going to grow at least 30 percent. Compared to that, 15 percent seems sort of piddly. It's not. In fact, over the long haul, 15 percent annual earnings growth for a company of some size is not only an ambitious goal -- it's almost impossible.

Consider a study conducted last year by Fortune magazine (working with Value Line). Looking at the 150 biggest companies in two overlapping 20 year periods (and one 19 year one), Fortune discovered that only a handful of big cap companies were able to post such impressive growth.

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In the two decades between 1960-80, only 3 of the 150 managed to meet or beat the magic 15 percent; only 4 managed this difficult feat in the years from 1970-1990; and 5 in the years from 1980-1999. In each of these periods, far more companies posted negative growth than posted 15-plus percent growth -- 33 in the 1980-1999 period alone.

So take those long-term growth estimates with a grain of salt. Or perhaps a shaker full.

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