PALO ALTO, Calif. (CNN/Money) -
If we've learned even one thing in this painful, painful downturn it's that no one has all the answers. Not the CEOs or the high-priced analysts. Definitely not the politicians. Certainly not the journalists!
And as many of you have written to tell me recently, there's also no such thing as a completely "safe" stock. To wit, here's the market performance of the three "trustworthy" companies I highlighted here last week, since I wrote about them: Illinois Tool Works, down 3 percent; Quest Diagnostics, down 8 percent; Procter & Gamble, down 7 percent; Caterpillar, down 6 percent.
Of course, I never suggested that these were trading opportunities. Trading is for pros. Individuals should invest.
But I can tell from my e-mail flow that folks are more confused than ever about exactly how to go about doing that. For example, a writer from Georgia says her husband has gone back to a job from which he retired "because of the market and how much we've lost." She adds, "Every time I look at the stock market my heart pounds harder by the moment. Will it EVER slowly go back up?"
And how about this frustrated reader, who recalls a recent meeting with two financial advisors at the same major brokerage, one of whom advised income-producing bonds while the other said she should stay invested in equities. "How can two people who both work for the same company see my future in such diverse terms?" she wonders.
Remember, investing is an art, not a science. It's not unusual that two managers would see things differently, even if they worked for the same 100,000-person firm. The key is getting a financial advisor who understands your needs, your level of risk aversion, your goals, and, importantly, can explain the plan of action to you.
On the subject of advice (not really my game), here's a comment from a bonafide bank manager. "You had mentioned to watch stocks that would benefit from the falling dollar and market, and yet you forgot to even mention any major banks. With the falling dollar and bond market the banks are making more mortgage loans than ever before, and thus fee income. Increased relationship-building with mortgage customers and thus an increase in the bottom line for major banks involved and running with the mortgage demand."
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RECENTLY BY ADAM LASHINSKY
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I have a two-word response to that: Housing bubble. If the real estate market collapses, do you really think mortgages won't be affected?
In any case, a wise person once told me one should invest only if you can sleep well at night knowing your investments are at risk. That provides no solace for all of us who've lost, especially those closer than others to retirement. But it's a good reminder to diversify.
Will the market ever slowly go back up? Sure. But slowly.
Sic transit Robertson Stephens
As of late Friday, it's official that Robertson Stephens, the investment-banking unit of FleetBoston, will simply shut its doors. Unable to find a buyer, the San Francisco boutique will now just...go away. It's really the end of the era.
Newcomers to the technology finance realm won't even remember "Robbie Stephens" a few years from now. The same is true of Montgomery Securities, the remnants of which are now part of giant BankAmerica. Ditto Hambrecht & Quist, whose name survives only as an appendage to J.P. Morgan H&Q, a unit of J.P. Morgan Securities.
Finally, most folks reading this probably haven't even heard of Alex. Brown, the Baltimore brokerage that had a solid San Francisco-based tech presence. It's just a sliver of Deutsche Bank today. The generational shift that ends today reflects perfectly investor sentiment of the moment. Technology doesn't need its own investment banks anymore. It's just part of the larger economy.
But that's kind of sad.
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at adam_lashinsky@timeinc.com.
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