NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - No matter what happens to the stock market this week -- new lows, holding steady or even moving ahead -- the potential damage to the economy is done. Consumer sentiment has fallen and investor optimism has been decimated. The worry now is that this will translate into less spending, which in turn could cause the economy to grind to a halt.
So amidst the doom and gloom, let's not lose sight of some very healthy fundamentals in the U.S. economy, pillars of support that optimists say will continue to provide a firm foundation for recovery.
Start with the consumer. Yes, consumer sentiment is taking a beating. We saw the University of Michigan's mid-July number fall to 86 from 94, pulled down by a big drop in people's expectations for the future. Their view of current conditions surprisingly held steady. It will be a big surprise if that part of the survey doesn't show some major deterioration when the final July number comes out on Friday.
But actions speak louder than words and the action from consumers lately tends to fly in the face of their gloomy assessments of the economy. Weekly chain store sales have bounced around of late, and were down 0.3 percent in the July 13 week. But the week before they rose 0.7 percent and on a year-over-year basis they were still up 3.5 percent in the July 13 week. The trend since the September 11 attacks has been higher.
The word on auto sales for the first ten days of July is that they may have picked up nicely as zero percent financing got people back in the showrooms. It's true that the stock market's scariest declines occurred after that, but it's not like investors haven't been dealing with the actual and psychological impact of stock market losses for awhile. So the fact that it looks like they are still buying cars is interesting.
Layoffs at telecom companies are grabbing headlines, but at least until last week we saw new claims for unemployment benefits in the aggregate trending lower. Most economists say they don't see much evidence -- if any -- of a desire to add workers at most companies at this juncture, but at least there are signs the worst of the layoffs is over.
In fact, if the jobless claims decline holds and they don't start moving higher, economists say we have seen the peak for this business cycle at 6 percent. In past recessions, unemployment moved much higher than that. Plus, if 6 percent of the labor force is unemployed, that means 94 percent is still working -- and bringing home paychecks.
Then there's low mortgage rates, and rising home prices. Higher home prices make homeowners wealthier, and, according to Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, that helps blunt the pain of shrinking stock portfolios. Low mortgage rates help make homes affordable even when prices are rising. And the low rates are also fueling a mini-refinancing boom, which puts money into consumers' pockets.
So there are some rays of hope out there. Will the stock market cloud dim those rays entirely? Or just keep them from beaming as brightly? Coming economic reports will give us some answers.
As for those low mortgage rates, tune in to my show, Money and Markets, today to hear one of my favorite mortgage mavens tell you if they are going to stay that low and whether you should lock in current low rates now. He's got a pretty good track record and he's got some advice you won't want to miss.
Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.
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