graphic
graphic  
graphic
Commentary > The Hays Files
graphic
In with stocks, out with bonds
Bonds had been racing on fears of a meltdown -- but does Wednesday's stock rally change all that?
July 24, 2002: 6:39 PM EDT
By Kathleen Hays, CNN/Money Contributing Columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wall Street equity traders weren't the only ones on a roller coaster ride today: A powerful rally in the bond market stopped dead in its tracks after a stunning reversal in the stock market. If the stock bear is going into hibernation, then bond bulls are likely to turn tail and run.

Early on the yield on the government's two-year note hit a low of 2.06 percent -- a new record. Traders said that "risk aversion" took over as the overnight drop in European stock markets and the initial steep losses in U.S. stocks fueled fears of another stock market meltdown.

Another catalyst for the early bond market rally: lingering worries over the investigation into Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase and their dealings with Enron. The question for bond traders is how that could affect the banks' bottom lines and ultimately their credit quality.

"There was continued fear that there might be more than meets the eye, more than has already happened," according to Jerome Lacey, who trades bonds at the Chicago Board of Trade for Prudential Financial (I interviewed him on CNNfn's Halftime Report today). "And if that, in fact, happened, there may be a credit crunch, a liquidity crisis, call it what you will," he said.

But when stocks started turning around, the bond market party was over. Prior to the U.S. Treasury's $27 billion dollar note sale Wednesday, traders thought the new paper would sell at a yield around 2.10 percent. But as stocks roared higher, expectations for a continued "flight to safety" by investors started to dry up. In the end, the two-year note sold at a much higher 2.27 percent.

Let's keep this in perspective, though. Just three weeks ago the government sold two-year notes at a yield of 2.97 percent, so short-term yields remain at very low levels.

What next? Depends on how badly the U.S. economy is damaged by the recent rout in stocks. If people keep spending and if businesses keep getting new orders for their goods, then talk of a double-dip recession and a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve will dissipate. (At the height of the bond market rally this morning, there were rumors of an emergency meeting by the Fed to discuss a rate cut -- typical in moments of market "near-hysteria.") And that would argue for bond yields to retrace their recent declines.

But those are some pretty big ifs. Is today's stock rebound a one-day wonder? Have we seen the last of Citigroup and J.P. Morgan Chase's allegedly dirty laundry?


Kathleen Hays co-anchors Money & Markets, airing Monday to Friday on CNNfn, and appears throughout the day reporting on the economy and how it affects financial markets. As part of CNN's Business News team, she is also a regular contributor to Lou Dobbs Moneyline.  Top of page




  More on COMMENTARY
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus rally
Thanks for nothing, Corporate America
It's not just the economy, stupid




graphic graphic

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.