NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
A "double-dip" recession is unlikely in the U.S. economy; the Federal Reserve, President Bush and Congress have got policy about right; and greater regulation of markets is coming, according to a survey of economists published Monday.
The National Association of Business Economists said 69 percent of the 193 economists it surveyed between July 26 and Aug. 7 don't expect the economy to fall back into the recession that began in March 2001 and may have ended early this year.
And 85 percent of the economists surveyed said they weren't concerned about deflation, a state in which companies aren't able to raise prices enough to keep up with wage inflation and are forced to lay off workers in order to break even. That fear had been raised by the persistent absence of inflation in an economy struggling for months to return to robust growth.
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Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed said the Fed's monetary policy was "about right," meaning it was neither too restrictive to growth nor too stimulative to inflation. The Fed cut its target for short-term interest rates 11 times in 2001 and has left that target at a 40-year low so far this year.
Fed policy makers meet again Tuesday and are widely expected to leave rates alone. Also Tuesday, President Bush is hosting a forum to discuss economic issues.
Bush and Congress, who set fiscal policy, including tax and spending programs, got low marks from the survey respondents -- 79 percent said Congress' performance was either "poor" or "somewhat poor," while 59 percent said Bush's performance was "poor" or "somewhat poor."
Oddly, 48 percent of the respondents still said fiscal policy was "about right."
Seventy-two percent of those surveyed said they expected greater regulation of financial markets in the wake of recent stock-market volatility and corporate scandals. Only 48 percent agreed with the idea that stronger regulation was necessary, however, and 58 percent said they were worried that regulation would go too far.
Of a list of several possible risks to future economic growth, the one picked most often -- by 44 percent of the respondents -- was stock-market volatility. In second place -- a distant second -- was "excessive indebtedness for consumers and business[es]," chosen by 8 percent of the respondents.
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