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Markets & Stocks
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One big month does not a bull make
Stock market indexes are way up from lows hit one month ago. But there are some troubling signs.
August 22, 2002: 11:39 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Four weeks and 1,255 Dow points from the lows of last month, the recent rally isn't playing any favorites.

Instead, stocks of all stripes have been doing well. Large-capitalization stocks are up big, but so are mid- and small caps. Things investors like to buy when the economy is revving up, like fianancials, are running higher, but so are safety areas like pharmaceutical companies.

The Dow and the Nasdaq are both up roughly 15 percent since July 23, and the S&P 500 is up 19 percent. But while it has been nice to see that rising tide lift all the market's boats, the rally's themelessness has people worried that it might not be long for this world.

No direction
The biggest winners since July 23 have been the defensive utility and health care sectors, while the cyclical areas that tend to outperform at the beginning of a bull market have lagged.
Sector Change 
Utilities 30% 
Health care 25% 
Financials 22% 
Telecom services 21% 
Industrials 18% 
Consumer discretionary 17% 
Energy 16% 
Consumer staples 15% 
Information technology 15% 
Materials 11% 
S&P 500 19% 
 Source:  Standard & Poor's

"It's H&R Block here, Pixar there -- the stocks breaking higher have no homogeneity to each other," said Jeff DeGraaf, technical analyst at Lehman Brothers. "It's weird action."

Where there is differentiation between different sectors, it's almost the exact opposite of what you would expect to see in at the beginning of a new bull market.

The two best-performing sectors of the market over the past four weeks have been utilities and health care -- considered defensive areas. The two sectors whose rallies have been most muted are basic materials and technology -- cyclical areas that investors flock to when they think the all-clear signal on the economy has sounded.

"Normally at the beginning of a bull market you would want to be in the economically sensitive stocks, and that's not what's running at the moment," said Merrill Lynch global strategist David Bowers.

  graphic  Calling the market  
  
How to know if the rally is real
  

True, both the utility and health care sectors had beaten down severely in the summer selloff (when you're home to troubled companies like Reliant Energy and Bristol Myers that's what happens). But adjust for that and you end up with what? A market that sees nothing clear to latch onto.

"It's hard now, there are no layups to be made," said Brett Gallagher, head of U.S. equities at Julius Baer Investment Management.

In 2000 and 2001, Gallagher was making big sector bets, believing (correctly) that there was a huge disparity between tech valuations and valuations for the rest of the market.

Now he thinks those valuation gaps have disappeared, and since he doesn't see the economy making big waves one way or another, he's unsure which way to position his portfolio. The only thing he has any real conviction in, he says, is that stocks are expensive and that buying into the current rally could be dangerous.

The lack of a theme in the market gives Miller Tabak strategist Pete Boockvar the sense that the recent rally isn't anything more than a snap-back.

"Look, June and July the market basically crashed," Boockvar said. "Everything got washed out and everything was going to rally after that. So we're seeing a little bounce here -- people shouldn't get too carried away by it."  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.