NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A group of leading U.S. economic indicators was lower in August, a research group said Monday, as the economy continued to struggle to recover from a recession that began in early 2001.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) fell 0.2 percent to 111.8 after falling a revised 0.1 percent in July. Economists, on average, expected the index to fall 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.
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The report had little impact on U.S. stock prices, which fell in early trading. Treasury bond prices rose.
The data that comprise the LEI already are known to economists, including those at the Federal Reserve. Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet Tuesday to discuss their target for short-term interest rates.
They are expected to leave rates alone, but recent signs of economic weakness could mean their rate-cutting campaign, on hold in 2002 after 11 cuts in 2001, could resume later this year.
The Conference Board said seven of the 10 indicators that make up the LEI showed a weakening economy in August, including rising weekly new claims for unemployment benefits, falling consumer expectations and lower manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and non-defense capital goods.
Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of total U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, has been robust despite a recession that began in March 2001, falling stock prices and more than 1.5 million job cuts.
But most economists believe business spending is critical to the economy's future health. A sudden drop in business spending after a boom in the late 1990s led to a production slowdown, job cuts and a broader recession. Lingering weakness in business investment could lead to more layoffs, finally hampering consumer spending.
The Conference Board's coincident index rose 0.1 percent to 115, as personal income, business sales and the number of employees on non-farm payrolls rose. Still, the coincident index indicates "a weak economic recovery," the research group said, since industrial production fell for the first time all year, and even the three positive indicators were anemic.
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