NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
It's been a brutal three months. The consumer is starting to pull back on spending. The semiconductor recovery came and went. The rebound in capital spending never happened. Financial-services companies grappled with more loan defaults and the continued slide in stocks.
As the negative news poured in over the last quarter, analysts slashed estimates for profit growth. As of July 1, Wall Street saw the S&P 500 posting earnings growth of 16.6 percent, but that has plunged to 4.9 percent as of Monday, according to First Call.
"I'm afraid we're in for a repeat of what we saw in July when [companies] beat estimates, but the announcements were accompanied by so many warnings," said First Call's Director of Research Chuck Hill. "I'd focus on consumer cyclicals, basic materials and technology to try and get a handle on where earnings are going early next year."
The Basic Materials sector has seen estimates for profit growth drop to 5 percent from 27 percent, the consumer cyclicals sector has seen views remain steady at 22 percent and the technology sector has had expectations slide to 25 percent from 81 percent, according to First Call.
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Chuck Hill, director of research at Thomson First Call talks about earnings and various sectors in the market.
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This week and next, investors finally get to see what all that added up to. Out of the hundreds of earnings reports due in the coming week, here are 10 to keep an eye on.
Fannie Mae
Worrying about Fannie Mae (FNM: up $1.22 to $66.30, Research, Estimates) has become a Wall Street pastime lately. Critics worry that the big government-sponsored mortgage lender, as a result of the huge surge in mortgage refinancing, has taken too much risk. The stock is more than 20 percent off it's high -- though it was up more than 3 percent on Monday in advance of the earnings release Tuesday morning.
Investors will be less eager to know what it earned than what steps it's taking to reduce risk. Some watchers, including Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, would also like Fannie Mae to disclose more information on the mortgages they own.
Analysts polled by First Call think the company earned $1.57 a share, against $1.33 a year ago.
Citigroup
Citigroup (C: down $0.03 to $30.37, Research, Estimates), which reports Tuesday morning, has weathered the weak economy well -- earnings continue to grow. Skeptics say that Citi has helped pad results by placing bets on interest rates, but if that's true, at least it's bet well.
Citi's more immediate problem is Jack Grubman, the former telecom analyst from its Salomon Smith Barney unit. Grubman is under fire for touting companies that were Salomon investment banking clients, but his lawyers suggest he was encouraged to do this by Citi top management.
At $30, the stock is off some 40 percent from its high, bringing its P/E (based on 2002 expected earnings) to just 10.6, compared to 16.4 for average of the S&P 500. Investors know the valuation is more attractive than it was a few months ago, but they would like to hear what the big bank is going to do to put the controversy behind it.
Analysts expect that Citi earned 73 cents in the quarter, against last year's 63 cents.
General Motors
It hasn't been struggling as badly as its rivals, but you can't say the environment hasn't been challenging for General Motors, which is due to report Tuesday morning. Demand has lately slipped, forcing the carmaker to extend its incentive programs yet again. Investors worry that demand will keep slumping in any case, while the expanded zero-percent financing deals will cut into profitability.
Indeed, GM shares sank more than 2 percent Monday after Merrill Lynch downgraded the world's largest automaker to "neutral" from "buy," saying either the (automakers') capacity to support the market will diminish and/or consumer demand will contract on its own as it has in other cycles.
GM (GM: down $1.46 to $33.36, Research, Estimates) shares are 50 percent off their 52-week high and are trading at a P/E of 5.4 for 2002 expected earnings.
Analysts expect that GM earned 99 cents in the third quarter, versus 85 cents a year ago.
Intel
There's not much that Intel, set to report after the close Tuesday, can do these days besides soldier on and hope for better times. With tech budgets in tatters, most consumers satisfied with the computing power available chips give them, and competition galore, times are tough for the former high flier.
Worse, investors are looking closely at the stock options that it gives out to employees -- if Intel (INTC: down $0.11 to $15.11, Research, Estimates) expensed those (like other forms of compensation), Merrill Lynch estimates that the company's earnings would be 15 cents a share lower for the year.
Shares of the world's largest semiconductor maker are 60 percent off their 52-week high and are trading at a P/E of 28.1, based on 2002 estimates. Analysts think Intel earned 13 cents in the quarter, against last year's dime.
Ford
Ford, due to report Wednesday morning, could change its name to Edsel. Its stock has fallen to 1991 levels as investors fret that its attempts at turn around will fall flat. Worse, its bonds have done poorly, effectively shutting the automaker off from raising capital in the fixed-income market.
If the situation doesn't improve, Ford may have to cut back sharply, closing down plants and laying off workers. The company hopes to use its earnings call next week to allay investors' fears.
Ford (F: down $0.36 to $7.96, Research, Estimates) shares fell nearly 5 percent Monday as Merrill Lynch slapped a downgrade on its stock Monday, taking it 58 percent off its 52-week high. The shares are trading at a P/E of 18.4.
Analysts expect Ford earned 3 cents a share against last year's third-quarter loss of 28 cents.
J.P. Morgan Chase
J.P. Morgan Chase, on the docket to report Wednesday morning, has been under the hammer. Besides having to cope with the economic downturn, it had exposure to any of the recent credit disasters you may care to think of -- Enron, Kmart, Global Crossing, Argentina, etc. J.P. Morgan plans to lay off up to 4,000 people, according to a source at the company, and it's possible that the cuts will come in tandem with the earnings announcement.
But some investors think even those cuts won't go far enough, and that the company may eventually need to scuttle its brokerage operations. Another alternative: merging with a European counterpart, like Deutsche Bank, combining the brokerage operations and then cutting staffing by half.
Shares of J.P. Morgan (JPM: down $0.25 to $16.94, Research, Estimates) are 58 percent off their 52-week high of $40.95 and are trading at a P/E of 10.
Analysts expect J.P. Morgan earned 7 cents a share versus last year's 51 cents.
Merrill Lynch
Last year Merrill Lynch, which reports before the open Wednesday, put through big layoffs. Rivals guffawed that it was making a big mistake -- business was going to come storming back and Merrill would be severely understaffed. Guess who's laughing now? It's tough times in the brokerage industry, but Merrill is better-positioned than anyone to be the global powerhouse once the storm passes.
Shares of Merrill Lynch (MER: up $0.86 to $32.94, Research, Estimates) are 44 percent off their 52-week high and have a P/E of 12.6.
Analysts expect Merrill earned 58 cents a share compared with last year's 44 cents.
IBM
In recent weeks, chatter abounded that IBM, set to release its numbers after the close Wednesday, was going to warn. Such rumors have become something like a quarterly ritual and, as is usually the case, the bad news traders expected from Big Blue didn't come.
But that doesn't mean IBM is trouble-free. With the economy sputtering and stocks swooning anew, business spending on technology could fall even more. On top of that, IBM's pension plan appears severely underfunded -- it may need to inject scads of cash into the plan to get it back up to funded status.
IBM (IBM: down $0.72 to $63.20, Research, Estimates) shares are 50 percent off their 52-week high and are trading at 16 times 2002 estimated earnings.
Analysts expect that IBM earned 96 cents a share, versus last year's 90 cents.
Philip Morris
Stocks in companies like Philip Morris, due to report before the open Thursday, are supposed to weather economic downturns well. Nothing like making an addictive product that people consume through thick and thin. But late last month, the tobacco company cut its 2002 forecast, saying that volume was slumping. Maybe having to pay $7 bucks a pack is convincing some smokers to kick the habit.
The world's largest cigarette maker has also been hounded by recent lawsuits, including one where the company was ordered to pay a record $28 billion to a 64-year-old woman with lung cancer who blamed her tobacco addiction on the company's failure to warn her of the risks of smoking. Philip Morris (MO: up $1.17 to $38.18, Research, Estimates) said it would appeal the decision, but its shares took it on the chin nonetheless.
The company's shares have fared relatively well recently as they are 34 percent off their 52-week high and are trading at a P/E of 8.3.
Analysts expect Philip Morris earned $1.26 a share against last year's $1.07.
Microsoft
Microsoft, which reports Thursday after the close, hasn't had nearly as tough a time as its tech counterparts -- it's good to have a monopoly. One problem area: The Xbox, its game console, continues to face tough competition. Some investors would also like to see the company use its cash horde to buy back stock or to pay a dividend.
Shares of the world's largest software maker are 31 percent off their 52-week high and are trading at 25.6 2002 projected earnings.
Analysts expect Microsoft (MSFT: up $0.05 to $48.92, Research, Estimates) earned 43 cents a share versus last year's 43 cents.
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