NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Monday Night Football reaches its 500th game Monday, more important to ABC than it has ever been, as the troubled network's only hit.
But the show could have meant more to ABC with a simple change in real estate -- if it had started life as Thursday Night Football. That would have been more financially worthwhile to the network, as it would have given the network a staple show on the most important and profitable night of the television schedule. And the one on which it has stumbled ever since.
So don't be surprised if some day a TNF joins MNF in the weekly lineup.
Thursday, the last night of viewing before the weekend, is the most desirable evening of programing for advertisers. Movie studios, department store chains and some other important advertisers will pay a premium to make a pitch on the night's highest rated shows, right before consumers and their dollars head out into the marketplace.
It's no coincidence that NBC has made Thursday, not some other night, its "Must See TV," by packing one hit show after another onto the night for the last 20-plus years. That's also why CBS decided to put its two biggest hits -- "Survivor" and "CSI" -- on Thursday night despite the competition from NBC.
But when it comes to Thursday night, ABC has been MIA since the days of Howard Cosell and Dandy Don. The only true hit it has aired on Thursday in recent years was "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," a short-lived phenomena that was on almost every night, including the hour before MNF. The last time the network had a lineup of hit shows on Thursday was 1978-79, when the programs included "Mork and Mindy" and "Barney Miller."
The NFL has had the occasional Thursday night game outside of Thanksgiving. This year's season opener was the Giants vs. the 49ers, played on the Thursday before the other 28 teams started the season. It aired on ESPN, which is also owned by ABC parent Walt Disney Co. (DIS: Research, Estimates) The game drew better ratings than the average Sunday night NFL game on ESPN.
An NFL official says that ABC has "floated the idea" about having regular Thursday night games in addition to Monday night, but they were informal discussions and nothing has come of it. He said the NFL is wary of introducing an additional day or night of football programming.
"The word we use a lot is commoditization. We want our games to be appointment TV. We wouldn't want oversaturation," said the NFL official who spoke on a not-for-attribution basis.
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An ABC spokesman also says the network is happy with the MNF product and is not interested in changing it, and wouldn't speculate on interest in an additional night of football.
No one would suggest that a Thursday Night Football would top the more established Monday Night Football now that the latter is so entrenched, especially given the competition.
"Monday Night Football is a television institution, if not a cultural institution," said Jeffrey Logsdon, media analyst with Gerard Klauer Mattison & Co. "It's not unlike '60 Minutes' trying to go to '60 Minutes II.' It never really captured the audience."
Still ad buyers believe that especially in years with a stronger advertising market, a Thursday night NFL game could gather a premium ad rate.
Tim Spengler, director of national broadcast for Initiative Media, said that there would be risks to the ratings and ad rates of the other NFL games, including ESPN's Sunday night game, due to too much football inventory. But he also believes a Thursday Night Football could be an effective way to reach the male viewers, both those 18 to 34 and 18 to 49 years old, who watch three current national NFL games in greater numbers than any of the Thursday night hits.
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"There would be more value (to Thursday night NFL games) in certain categories (of advertisers)," he said. "It's also a better day of the week to advertise."
Thursday is already becoming a football night. ESPN is getting respectable ratings for Thursday night college games, even though the nation's premier teams are generally not featured, there are fewer households than broadcast college games, and the programming competition is strong.
The problem of a short preparation week for the two teams playing Thursday could be addressed by the fact that most weeks the league has two teams not playing at all. The teams with a bye could play each other the following Thursday, although that would mean that some Thursday matchups would include the league's weaker teams that rarely make it onto MNF.
The biggest reason for such an offering is the NFL's desire to increase broadcast revenue while keeping its games on broadcast networks. Other sports are seeing more and more of their games move to cable networks, which can draw on both advertising revenue as well as subscribers' fees, to pay the rights fees.
The four broadcast networks have complained regularly about how unprofitable sports are with the current rights fees. But Disney has made a commitment to more, not less, sports, picking up the National Basketball Association this season for both ABC and ESPN.
ABC has nowhere to go but up with its Thursday night programming, while the NFL probably has nowhere else to go for increased rights fees if it is going to remain on the broadcast networks.
Are you ready for more football? Ready or not, it's probably inevitable.
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