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News > Technology
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Intel raises revenue estimates
Chipmaker projects revenue of as much as $7 billion in the 4th quarter.
December 5, 2002: 7:45 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Intel late Thursday guided analysts to expect higher revenue when it reports its fourth quarter results on Jan. 15th.

The company projected revenue of $6.8 billion to $7 billion in the fourth quarter; previously, Intel had told analysts to expect from $6.5 to $6.9 billion. The new forecast lifts the estimated sequential growth rate from a range of 4 percent to 6 percent to a range of 5 percent to 8 percent. But from last year's fourth quarter, growth is essentially zero.

Intel indicated it could also deliver the 50 percent or better gross margin analysts have been watching for, stating that it would come in at the high end of a range of "give or take a few points" around 49 percent.

At the same time, Intel mentioned losses from investments would be higher than a forecast $50 million, more on the order of $90 million.

In a call with analysts, Intel CFO Andy Bryant deftly batted away questions about the health of the PC market. Insisting that the fourth quarter looked like "just another seasonal quarter," Bryant sidestepped questions about which kinds of computer products were doing better or worse, and whether PC markets were seeing a lift from corporate buying.

Analysts attempting to gauge the health of the corporate computing sector repeatedly asked whether Intel was selling more units into the high-priced "server" computer market -- laptops and corporate desktop models. Bryant declined to comment on product mix, saying sales were strong across the entire range of Intel's chips. However he did throw some cold water on hopes for a corporate upgrade cycle, stating that Intel had seen "no major liftoff that we can tell in corporate purchases."

Intel's only real competitor in the PC processor business, AMD, offered its own strong update earlier in the day, guiding analysts to expect revenue in the December quarter of $700 million, much higher than prior estimates of around $600 million.

Observers are watching to see if Intel's numbers will confirm their sense that strength among Dell and HP indicate a return to corporate purchases of PC's.

Several analysts are hoping a long overdue upgrade cycle of personal computers will boost sales in 2003. Estimates for worldwide growth in personal computers shipments range from 6 percent to 8 percent, but much of that growth hinges on how sales fare in the U.S. market, which represents more than a third of the worldwide market in unit terms.

The United States is predominantly a replacement market for PC makers, with sales to new PC users reaching only 2 percent to 3 percent per year. In a mature market, it's up to business users to replenish their stocks of new PCs in order to drive sales. In the economic downturn, corporate buyers in the U.S. have delayed purchases of new machines.

Significantly, Intel noted strength in Asia in its announcement today, which is a market where new sales exceed the U.S. as a percentage of sales. However, Intel clearly depends on the higher margins for business PC's in the U.S. to drive the average selling price of its chips, and, in turn, its gross margin.

Assuming Intel can combine higher-than-expected sales with improved margins of between 49.5 and 50 percent, the chipmaker's earnings could surprise positively come January.

According to some analysts, if Intel is successfully holding firm on the average selling prices of its chips, then any boost in the number of units sold would flow directly to the bottom line, assuming constant or gradually improving gross margin. Analysts' estimates for the fourth quarter range from 12 to 16 cents, and from 47 to 55 cents for the year.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.