PALO ALTO, CAlif. (CNN/Money) -
Announcing Friday that it would no longer offer quarterly or annual earnings guidance, Coca-Cola may just be at the front of a revolution.
Amusingly, Coke did give guidance for 2002 (it is "comfortable" with estimates), which is sort of like taking one last deep drag from the cigarette in your hand while declaring that you'll never smoke again. That move helped keep the stock (KO: Research, Estimates) steady on an otherwise down day.
But let's give Coke the benefit of the doubt. If you take its executives at their word, they're setting themselves up as an example of a big company that refuses to play the wink-wing/nudge-nudge game of managing their earnings anymore.
This sort of thing drives Wall Street crazy. Analysts like to have as much spoon-fed information as they can get. Listen to a conference call for an earnings report -- or, even a so-called mid-quarter update -- and you'll hear a company's CFO give "guidance" on such minutiae as the tax rate, the gross margins, inventory levels, order backlogs and the like.
One giant leap
The debate over such information until now has focused on how the information is disseminated. Regulation FD (for "fair disclosure") is all about ensuring the data is widely available to all investors who want it -- that is, guidance is fine as long as enough people get it at the same time. Coke is taking things a step further.
Anyone with common sense knows that public companies behave badly in order to meet Wall Street's quarterly expectations. They may offer too good a deal to a customer who's willing to sign on the bottom line before the quarter's end. Or they may put off an important capital investment because the expense would hit the bottom line too hard this quarter.
In short, public companies too often manage for Wall Street's near-term expectations rather than for the long-term health of the business.
Can you imagine the owner of a healthy private company slashing the price on a product today -- one he knows he can sell at the normal price next week -- because earnings are two pennies short? Of course not.
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There are those who will say that Coke's new policy is about promoting ignorance. If you listen to what Coke is saying, however, you'll see that Coke isn't going to stop communicating with its shareholders. It's just not giving earnings-per-share guesses.
It does plan to give "perspective on its value drivers, its strategic initiatives and those factors critical to understanding its business and operating environment." Translation: It'll talk about the business, just not the earnings forecasts.
As for the analysts, well, they're going to have to analyze. That means looking at historical performance, considering stated promises such as dividend payouts, and forecasting industry trends and competitive threats. Sounds like tough work, no? That's why they get paid the big bucks.
Stock speculators, otherwise known as traders, should be jumping for joy because tidbits of information will be ever more meaningful. Meantime, corporations can get back to what they're supposed do -- manage their businesses for the long-term interests of their shareholders.
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.
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