The Bottomline: Predictions for 2003

Predictions for 2003

The top Dow stock? Which CEO will get canned? Here are my guesses.
December 18, 2002: 4:09 PM EST
By Adam Lashinsky, CNN/Money contributing columnist

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PALO ALTO, Calif. - If you're reading this then you're still interested in what's going to happen in the market next year. What does 2003 hold?

Don't ask the experts -- they don't have the best track record of predicting. Guessing is far more enjoyable. That's why I've provided this handy-dandy news quiz. I'll play too.

1. The Nasdaq composite will:
a) Fall greater than 20 percent. (That would mean four consecutive down years.)
b) End the year flat. (After this year's 29 percent decline as of Dec. 17, would you complain?)
c) Rise 4 percent. (Sounds cool, but why not just buy a T-bill?)
d) Jump 19 percent. (The comp's due, right?)
e) Plummet by 50 percent when Microsoft and Intel shift to the Big Board.

2. The best-performing Dow Stock will be:
a) Eastman Kodak, 2002's apparent winner, up 34 percent as of Dec. 17.
b) AT&T, among this year's biggest losers.
c) Microsoft, the new stability stock.
d) Hewlett-Packard, because you believe in this merger.
e) Home Depot, because when the housing bubble stays inflated, Home Depot's shares will roar back.

3. The "hot" technology in 2003 will be:
a) There won't be one.
b) Search engines. (That's right, what's old is new again.)
c) Wi-Fi. Wireless offices are cool again.
d) Disk drives. (Not as silly as you think.)
e) Cell phones with built-in cameras, because teenagers gotta have them.

4. The big market story in 2003 will be:
a) Solid recovery in tech and telecom shares with Cisco topping $20.
b) A steady decline in the dollar, stemming from confusion at the Treasury department.
c) Oil prices collapse to $10 after Saddam Hussein is exiled to Saudi Arabia.
d) Housing continues to resist all the bubble talk.
e) An end to double-taxation of dividends provokes a run on cash-rich tech stocks.

5. The sexiest tech company of 2003 will be:
a) Lucent. (Party like it's 1999)
b) Google. (The only tech company anyone wants to talk about)
c) IBM. (It's baaaack -- again.)
d) Crystal Decisions. (Haven't heard of the next Silver Lake Partners company to go public? You will.)
e) Microsoft. (because if I keep writing Microsoft you'll keep reading.)

6. The mega-merger of 2003 will be:
a) McDonald's and Burger King. (Business has eroded so much that no one will care about antitrust.)
b) Oracle and Siebel (This way Oracle finally can be No. 1 in software applications sales.)
c) Citigroup and CSFB. (Because misery loves company.)
d) Cisco and Lucent (Fire sale)
e) Sorry bankers, there won't be any mega-deals. Valuations aren't low enough yet.

7. The CEO least likely to be in his or her job at this time next year is:
a) HP's Carly Fiorina. (Her detractors always will want her on this list.)
b) AOL's Dick Parsons. (More punishment for a failed deal.)
c) Tyco's Ed Breen. (No turnaround, no job.)
d) Motorola's Chris Galvin. (Enough is enough.)
e) WorldCom's Michael Capellas (No company, no CEO)

8. New York State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer will:
a) Get outfoxed by incoming SEC chair William Donaldson and Wall Street in the global settlement deal with investment banks.
b) Succeed in getting a $2 billion fine as a global settlement
c) Resign to become commissioner of baseball.
d) Fail in his bid to win suit against fast-food restaurants in the they-made-me-fat trials.
e) Announce his candidacy for New York governor -- three years early.

Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.

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