SAN FRANCISCO (CNN/Money) -
As 2002 works through its last few ticks, it's time to recap the year that was. Odd days they were, with many companies struggling simply to break even.
But all was not bleak in Tech Investor Land. In fact, for some companies and sectors, it was...a very good year! So cue up the Sinatra sound track, and let's have a look back.
Story of the Year, Part 1
The biggest story of the year, of course, was the never-ending parade of corporate wrongdoers appearing on the nightly news and on magazine covers. Ken Lay. Bernie Ebbers. Dennis Kozlowski. The list goes on. In the year 2002, the bloom came off the rose for many who came of age during the late 1990s.
Story of the Year, Part 2
Politicians love a good guys/bad guys tale, and the corporate crooks of 2002 provided fodder for plenty of congressional hand-wringing (as well as some nifty Karl Rove-designed backdrops for President Bush's speeches). But for lasting impact, this was all just window dressing.
Oh sure, we saw some legislation pushed through, and a few politicians may get reelected on a "get tough on corporate crime" platform, but do you really think we'll see meaningful change in accounting law and Wall Street oversight in 2003? If so, I have some portal stocks I'd like to sell you.
I think the story with the most lasting impact might be the Microsoft (MSFT: up $0.76 to $53.80, Research, Estimates) decision -- a.k.a. the Seattlement. The ruling in the antitrust case gave Redmond's monopoly state sanction, but the court also said that the software giant could no longer bully its competitors.
And that's where it gets interesting, because Microsoft isn't making money in any post-PC category. With its tactics now under close scrutiny and the PC market nearing saturation in the United States, the next few years will be lots of fun for Microsoft-watchers.
Man of the Year
When he rests his feet atop the governor's desk in 2006 and looks back on the road that got him there, New York state attorney general Eliot Spitzer will probably raise a toast to 2002, when he gained an international reputation as a corporate crime fighter. Spitzer's legacy won't be tested until the next round of business scandals -- which, if history is any guide, won't take place until shortly after the next boom.
Like Rudolph Giuliani before him, Spitzer has a bright future thanks to his tireless efforts to prosecute corporate sleaze. Giuliani made his name going after junk-bond traders; Spitzer targeted Wall Street itself. Little is known of his politics outside this area, but with the landmark $1.5 billion research settlement announced last week, watch for Spitzer's star to continue its upward trajectory.
Woman of the Year
Somewhere, Walter Hewlett is fuming. Of course, it's too early to say whether the Hewlett-Packard/Compaq (HPQ: down $0.22 to $18.69, Research, Estimates) merger will be a success in the long run, but the early returns are strong, and most of the thanks go to the woman on top.
Recently in Tech Investor
|
|
|
|
In the second half of fiscal 2002, Carly Fiorina's HP-Compaq netted merger-related savings of $651 million, 30 percent more than its goal of $500 million. The company earned $390 million on revenues of $18 billion last quarter, compared with a loss of $505 million on revenues of $18.2 billion a year earlier. "Our strategy is working, and we're picking up momentum," Fiorina said during the most recent earnings call.
Some big challenges still lie ahead: With Michael Capellas departing to resurrect WorldCom (WCOM: Research, Estimates), Fiorina's top priority is to find someone who can oversee day-to-day operations. Fiorina's strength is sales and vision, not steering the ship. To keep the merger on track, she needs a strong No. 2.
Company of the Year
Investors who bought Amazon.com (AMZN: up $0.28 to $22.21, Research, Estimates) shares on Jan. 2, 2002, have more than doubled their investment at year's end. In fact, Amazon was the best-performing stock of the Nasdaq 100. Though he may no longer be the Internet wonder child, Jeff Bezos has morphed into something even more impressive: a solid businessman.
Amazon offered the right mix of incentive discounting (free shipping for orders of $25 or more), smart expansion (into apparel through partnerships), and attention to the bottom line (the company reduced losses in the last quarter to $10 million, compared with $70 million the previous year). Next year won't be easy, as the company begins to expense its stock options, but 2002 was the year Bezos and Amazon finally arrived.
Sign up to receive the Tech Investor column by e-mail.
Plus, see more tech commentary and get the latest tech news.
|