NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -
Bear markets are unforgiving. In fact, it's a Wall Street truism that almost all stocks drop during a major market decline. But note the word "almost."
Even in a bear market as destructive as the one that has battered share prices over much of the past three years, a few stocks buck the trend.
These Bearbusters may account for as little as 10 percent of the total market, and their gains may be small. But the mere fact that they rise when most other companies' share prices are falling means they are worthy of special attention.
Many of the stocks that keep advancing in tough times offer only short-term trading opportunities. Some are just inherently countercyclical -- gold or energy stocks may rally during an international crisis, for instance.
Other companies get a one-time boost from unique events, such as the approval of a biotech firm's breakthrough drug. And occasionally stocks are so deeply depressed -- perhaps because of an earlier disaster -- that they enjoy a mild recovery for no particular reason.
The 'quiet achievers'
There is a category that provides genuine long-term opportunities, however. These stocks, which could be called quiet achievers, never become wildly overpriced, so they never have that far to fall in a downturn. And the net profits of these companies continue to rise, even in a discouraging economic climate.
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| | Company (ticker) | | 3-Year gain | | Earnings growth | | P/E | | Yield | | Anadarko Petroleum (APC) | 37% | 15% | 12.3 | 0.9% | | General Dynamics (GD) | 45% | 12% | 13.5 | 1.6% | | Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 22% | 14% | 20.9 | 1.5% | | PepsiCo (PEP) | 25% | 12% | 19.9 | 1.4% | | Washington Mutual (WM) | 136% | 13% | 8.3 | 3.1% |
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3-Year gain from Dow's bottom on Jan.14, 2000 through Jan. 17, 2003. Earnings growth based on 5 year estimate. P/E based on 2003 estimate. | Source: Baseline |
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Why are these steady stocks a better choice than high-quality growth companies at a time when the market appears poised for a recovery? Aggressive investors may prefer to bet all their chips on a growth-stock rebound. But it is worth remembering that the outlook remains highly uncertain.
In this climate, steadier stocks provide precisely the balance that a portfolio needs, without undermining long-term returns.
To find such quiet achievers, we screened a universe of large, high-quality companies, looking for those that had managed to turn in share-price increases during the bear market -- and were likely to continue their solid performance in the coming recovery.
Our initial criteria: annual revenue and market capitalization of $5 billion or more; at least 4 percent compound annual historical earnings growth; projected growth averaging 8 percent or more a year; and long-term debt equal to less than 65 percent of total capital. That universe was quite small -- only 116 stocks passed the screen.
Of those, 45 rose in price during the long downturn from early 2000 to October 2002. We trimmed that list by dropping foreign companies and stocks with projected earnings growth of less than 12 percent, as well as a few with high P/Es or a conspicuous lack of analyst support. Of the 21 that remained, these five appear to offer the best mix of above-average growth prospects, reasonable P/Es and financial strength.
Anadarko Petroleum (APC: Research, Estimates) is a top independent producer of oil and natural gas, with most of its reserves in North America. The company would be a prime beneficiary of the rise in oil prices. But it also offers long-term growth potential -- production could rise almost 10 percent annually over the next few years. The stock is up nearly 40 percent in the past three years, but at $46, it still trades at less than 13 times estimated 2003 earnings.
General Dynamics (GD: Research, Estimates) is a traditional defense contractor, making combat ships, tanks, armored vehicles, helicopters and commercial aircraft. Should the conflict with Iraq be settled quickly, defense stocks may pull back, as they did in the 1990-91 Gulf War. But longer term, the rising defense budget should benefit contractors like General Dynamics. The stock is up 45 percent over the past three years; at $74, it trades at a P/E below 14.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: Research, Estimates), a Money magazine favorite, is one of the best-diversified drug and health care companies, and it boasts a stellar track record. The share price has softened in the past few months because one of J&J's promising new drugs faces restrictions by European regulators over fears of possible side effects. Even so, the stock should match or surpass the 13 percent annual earnings growth it has enjoyed for a decade. The share price, down to below $55 (a 21 P/E), is still up more than 20 percent versus three years ago.
PepsiCo (PEP: Research, Estimates) enjoys steady growth from its Frito-Lay snack foods and beverage businesses (Pepsi, Mountain Dew). The company has also entered the bottled-water market with its successful Aquafina. At $43.65, the stock is up 25 percent over three years; it trades at a 20 P/E versus 23.5 for chief rival Coca-Cola.
Washington Mutual (WM: Research, Estimates), the largest U.S. savings and loan, is a perennial darling of value investors. Lately the company has benefited from the mortgage refinancing boom. Longer term, national expansion will drive earnings growth for the West Coast thrift. At $35.90, WaMu has more than doubled since the bear market began. Earnings growth has been so remarkable, though, that the shares trade at a P/E of less than 9 and pay a 3.1 percent yield.
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