NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Hollywood loves sports movies more than movie goers do.
Sports stories are a major staple at multiplexes across the nation, more common than bad movie choices by Kevin Costner. But the truly big box office blockbuster sports movie is rarer than the hero losing the big game at the end of the picture.
This summer's big sports movie -- "Seabiscuit" due in theaters July 25 -- is already being hyped as an Oscar contender and the most critically acclaimed movie of a summer filled with action sequels and kids' movies. Like other inspirational sports movies, it will probably be playing nonstop on cable in a year or two.
But some analysts say the depression-era story of America's favorite race horse, featuring "Spider-Man" star Tobey Maguire, is not likely to be in the box office winner's circle.
"It's a film we'll be seeing on television for 20 years, but it's not going to be in black when it leaves theaters," said David Mumpower, president of Box Office Prophet.
Mumpower predicts a total domestic gross of the Universal Pictures release of about $50 million, which is less than the opening weekend of six different movies released this year.
"Seabiscuit" does have a couple of advantages for the Vivendi Universal (V: Research, Estimates) unit. It is based on a critically acclaimed, best-selling book and is coming at a relatively weak part of the summer schedule for movies. Mumpower predicts because of scheduling it could stay in theaters much longer than many bigger box office movies that grab big opening numbers then burn out quickly.
"Sports movies generally don't open well, but they have a tendency to have better legs, no pun intended," he said.
And unlike many sports movies, this one has a chance for better overseas box office.
Horse racing is at least a global sport. Movies built around baseball or football, even when they do strong domestic box office, usually bomb overseas, if they get released there at all.
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| The movie "Seabiscuit" will have a tough time making money at the box office, despite anticipated critical acclaim. |
Last year's "The Rookie" pulled in $75.6 million with its real-life story of a 35-year old high school coach breaking into major league baseball. But it did only $1.1 million overseas.
Still "The Rookie" cost only $22 million to make and $18 million to market, according to Box Office Mojo, making a nice profit for Walt Disney Co. (DIS: Research, Estimates)
"Seabiscuit" may be one of the more expensive sports movies. Mumpower estimates it cost $80 million before an extensive marketing campaign.
Seabiscuit may eventually make money, but like most race horses who depend on stud fees for their owners' profits, the real money will come when it leaves the cheering crowds behind. DVD sales and video rentals as well as fees from cable and broadcast networks will be the key to the movie's financial fortunes.
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If "Seabiscuit" ends up being a box office nag, it will join good company. The sports movies everyone knows and supposedly loves -- "Bull Durham" or "Rudy" or "Hoosiers" -- had really pretty modest success while in theaters.
The biggest box office sports movies are a far less critically acclaimed group - movies like Adam Sandler's "The Waterboy" or Michael Jordan's "Space Jam" or Rocky sequels. And only a dozen sports movies have ever cracked the $100 million mark in box office.
Still Hollywood keeps turning out at least several sports movies a year, and will likely to continue to do so.
"There's something cinematic about sports movies," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co. "They're easy to pitch. You always have a winner, usually an underdog, and a loser. You don't need a lot of special effects."
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Even global appeal of a sport and a star with some box office success on his record - both of which "Seabiscuit" has, won't guarantee success.
Just ask box office powerhouse Will Smith, whose golf movie "The Legend of Bagger Vance," cost $80 million to make, but brought in only $30.7 million domestically and $8.5 million overseas. His critically-acclaimed "Ali," which cost an estimated $130 million to make, did only $58.2 million domestically and $27.1 million overseas.
But, for the most part, the sports films with modest box office have even more modest budgets that are relatively easy to recoup at the video store if not the multiplex. So Hollywood will keep playing games when it makes movies.
"I think we're being blinded by the blockbusters," said Dergarabedian. "Sports movies have been pretty consistent. It's not a hotbed of $100 million films, but it's a solid performing genre."
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