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Bank mergers: Who's next?
With Lehman-Neuberger a done deal, eyes turn to other consolidation candidates.
July 22, 2003: 1:09 PM EDT
By Andrew Stein, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - For those who missed out on the recent M&A flurry in the financial services sector, there's still talk of other companies looking around.

New York Community Bancorp kicked off the buying in late June with its $1.6 billion acquisition of Roslyn Bancorp and Lehman Brothers followed Tuesday with its $2.63 billion buy of asset manager Neuberger Berman in a deal Lehman hinted at last week.

Since those developments were first announced, shares of Neuberger (NEU: down $0.36 to $40.08, Research, Estimates) and Roslyn (RSLN: Research, Estimates) have jumped about 18 percent, compared with a rise of about 2 percent for the Dow Jones financial index.

But if you missed the boat on Neuberger and Roslyn, there are other financial services firms that may be on the block, according to industry watchers.

Citizens Financial Group, a unit of the Royal Bank of Scotland, is interested in Philadelphia-based Sovereign Bancorp (SOV: Research, Estimates) after Sovereign's CEO said in a radio interview he would be interested in selling at the right price, according to London's Sunday Times.

"If the Bank of Scotland sees something it likes, it will generally pay to get it, and this would be a good fit for them," said James Ackor, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, adding that a price in the $24 to $26 per share range would be reasonable.

A spokeswoman for Citizens said the company does not comment on acquisition plans. A spokesman for Sovereign confirmed the radio interview, but said it is company policy not to comment on marketplace speculation.

Another firm in the New England area that may be in play is John Hancock Financial Services, which has held merger talks with both FleetBoston (FBF: Research, Estimates) and Prudential Financial (PRU: Research, Estimates), according to reports in the Boston Globe.

In both cases the talks broke off in the preliminary stages, the paper reported, but it signaled that Boston-based Hancock may be up for sale.

"I would say John Hancock is a definite [buyout] candidate," said Ira Zuckerman, analyst with Pittsburgh Securities.

A company spokesman said Hancock does not comment on merger speculation.

With an 11 percent gain since the report, compared to 7 percent for the Dow Jones Financial index, Hancock shares haven't seen quite the same rise as Neuberger or Roslyn.

David Lewis, analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphries, said there is a minimal takeover premium in Hancock shares right now. "There may have been some premium priced in when it demutualized in '99, but I think's dissipated since then."

But caveat emptor for those looking to buy solely on takeover talk.

"You want to buy a company you think will do well if no one buys it," Pittsburgh Securities' Zuckerman cautioned, adding that he has a "market perform" rating on Hancock.

"It's gotten some bad press on the size of its CEO's pay, its annuity products are getting squeezed by low interest rates, and it had several bad loans in the past," he added.

Heading to the bank

New York Community's purchase of Roslyn wasn't a blockbuster, but it was a reminder that banks often rely on acquisitions to fuel growth. This might be especially true amid the three-year bear market, low interest rates and the virtual absence of investment banking activity.

And PNC Financial Services could add that fuel to a bigger bank, according to Evan Momios, equity analyst with Standard & Poor's.

"I haven't heard of anyone explicitly saying they want PNC, but the bigger banks haven't seen strong revenue growth, so they may look at PNC as a presence in Pennsylvania," he said.

PNC shares have lagged other takeover targets with a gain of about 10 percent since its March low, but that may make it more of a target, Momios noted.

"It's trading about 13 times 2003 earnings and typically, a bank would pay 18 or 19 times earnings, but I don't think PNC could get that," he added. "I'd say 16 times would be a reasonable price."

PNC (PNC: Research, Estimates) shares trading at 16 times Momios' 2003 estimate of $3.80 a share would put the stock at $60.80, roughly 26 percent above its current levels.

One more possible target is FleetBoston, said Matthew Kelley, a New York-based analyst with research firm Moors Cabot.

"In the Northeast, I expect Fleet will be the first to be bought," he said. "The big national banks, like Wells Fargo and Bank of America, want more presence in some of the wealthy areas, so they will look for a bank that's already established."

Investors may be anticipating a Fleet takeover as well. Fleet shares have soared about 40 percent since hitting their March lows, above the 30 percent gain of the Dow Jones financial index in the same time frame.

Click here to check other financial stocks

While analysts agree it's hard to find takeover targets and even more difficult to buy the stock at the right time, Sandler O'Neill's director of research Mark Fitzgibbon stressed that consolidation will be coming in the sector.

"With these things, where there's smoke, there's often fire," he said.  Top of page


--None of the analysts quoted own shares of they companies they cover. Sandler O'Neill does have a banking relationship with FleetBoston. RBC Capital Markets has had a banking relationship with Sovereign Bancorp.




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.