NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
With only four full shopping days remaining before Christmas, retailers are anxiously anticipating a rush of last-minute shoppers on the busiest shopping weekend of the year.
On average, consumers still have to complete about 30 percent of their holiday shopping, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's largest trade group.
"We are a nation of procrastinators," NRF President Tracy Mullin said in a recent report. "With many consumers completing their holiday shopping -- and some of them just starting -- retailers are expecting crowded parking lots and heavy traffic this weekend."
This weekend will be crucial since snowstorms in the northeast have already dampened two important shopping weekends.
Analysts, however, say there's enough time to make up for any shortfalls.
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Shoppers are picking up pricey gifts like this $295 Burberry signature check cuff. |
"Clearly everyone was hurt by the weather and store traffic declined sharply. But retailers can hope to recover this weekend, and from the one extra shopping day this year," said Michael Niemira, senior economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
The NRF anticipates the snowstorms will have a minimal impact on its holiday forecast of a 5.7 percent sales increase. That compares with last year's anemic growth of 2.2 percent.
"In the grand scheme of things, we might see growth of 5.6 percent instead of 5.7 percent," said Ellen Tolley, spokeswoman for the group.
The Saturday before Christmas is the busiest shopping day of the year, and some observers say retailers could be piling on the incentives and slashing prices further in a race to the finishline.
Here's the rundown on the winners and losers this holiday season:
Feeling luxurious: It is a sweet story for upscale retailers like Saks (SKS: Research, Estimates), Neiman Marcus (NMG.A: Research, Estimates), Gucci (GUC: Research, Estimates) and Nordstrom (JWN: Research, Estimates).
The group posted solid sales numbers in November as shoppers snapped up Prada bags and Burberry watches.
Early indications point to strong results in December as well. Gucci on Friday logged a rise in its third-quarter profit and said it expects "excellent" results for the remainder of the year.
"This category is a definite winner," said George Whalin, president of Retail Management Consultants. "It's the economic realities that are benefiting the high-end retailers. There's been a significant bump-up in 401(k)s and people are feeling richer."
At the same time, a few high-end retailers such as Coach (COH: Research, Estimates) have reduced prices in a bid to make their expensive leather handbags and watches more affordable to the masses.
A gadgets fiesta: Digital cameras, flat-screen TVs and personal computers are quickly flying off the shelves, forcing some retailers to cope with supply shortages.
Sears (S: Research, Estimates) said the unexpected surge in demand depleted its stock of some models of the "micro projection" flat-screen TVs and the Apex model DVD players priced at $27.99.
"The demand for the micro-projection TVs was two-and-a half times our expected volume," said Sears spokesman Larry Costello. "We're buying more from our suppliers and restocking them as fast as we can."
Although industry watchers expect the consumer electronics category will be a winner, they're less sure about the performance of individual players.
Best Buy, the No.1 electronics retailer, this week cited bad weather for weaker sales trend in its fourth quarter.
E-tailing's on fire: "This is a banner year for online retail sales," said Whalin. "The weather was an enormous factor for the big holiday sales numbers. The other factor is that consumers are much more comfortable using the Internet and they're appreciating the convenience of it."
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Consumers spent a record $2.1 billion dollars on Internet purchases last week, up 28 percent compared to the same period a year ago, according to ComScore Networks. "This is the highest level of weekly non-travel spending recorded to date," said company spokesman Graham Mudd.
Mudd expects total online holiday sales will grow about 25 percent to 30 percent to between $12.1 billion and $12.6 billion.
... and the losers
Discount and Department stores in distress: Both Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates) and Target (TGT: Research, Estimates) have given gloomy outlooks for December, citing softness in sales. One problem is that many retailers have been holding off on aggressive discounting, hoping consumers will pay regular price.
Anecdotal evidence suggests consumers were disappointed by the leaner promotions. All that could change as the countdown begins.
Sears already surprised shoppers with unplanned storewide sale last weekend in a bid to spur sales and could do it again. J.C.Penney (JCP: Research, Estimates) has planned a 2 to-60 percent-off storewide sale on Saturday.
No oomph in apparel: "This is the group that I'm most concerned about," said Marshal Cohen, co-president of market research firm NPDFashionworld. "There's nothing exciting here that jumps out at you and makes you want to buy it. Do I really need another striped sweater?"
Clothing is more of an impulse buy, Cohen said, and the absence of "must-have" items continues to hurt this group. "Consumers who normally would have bought clothing are looking elsewhere."
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: Research, Estimates) , American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS: Research, Estimates), Wet Seal (WTSLA: Research, Estimates) and Dillard's (DDS: Research, Estimates) reported disappointing sales last month. A few names that bucked the trend were Ann Taylor (ANN: Research, Estimates), Coach (COH: Research, Estimates), Gap (GPS: Research, Estimates), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN: Research, Estimates).
Toys: The real competition this season is between the retail stores and online merchants such as eBay (EBAY: Research, Estimates) and Amazon.com (AMZN: Research, Estimates) as e-tailers steal customers with steep price cuts and, in some cases, free shipping.
"Toys R Us (TOY: Research, Estimates) could see a tough season overall, while discounters and online merchants will do better in this category, " said Cohen.
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