Portland, Ore. (CNN/Money) -
Pixar has a history of guiding low and delivering high, so few doubted that the animation company would post a big number for the fourth quarter and full year after the bell on Wednesday (it did). But most investors are taking a cautious approach toward the stock, still trying to gauge the impact of the recent fallout with Disney.
Not too long ago, Pixar had given guidance that it would report earnings per share of $1.04 for the fourth quarter, but the Street wasn't buying it, and by Wednesday afternoon the consensus was for $1.27.
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Even so, many investors were noting that Pixar would need to post an even bigger number for results to be considered any good -- $1.38, figured David W. Miller, senior vice president and media analyst with Sander Morris Harris.
Final result: $1.44. Pixar CEO Steve Jobs didn't miss the opportunity to revel in the performance. "We are thrilled to report the most profitable quarter and full year in Pixar's history," he gloated.
That compared with 31 cents a share for the year-earlier quarter, and reflected some of the proceeds from the film "Finding Nemo," which Jobs touted as "the highest grossing animated film in history."
For the full year, Pixar (PIXR: Research, Estimates) reported earnings of $2.17 a share, compared to the year-earlier results of $1.68 and Pixar guidance of $1.76.
But while Jobs was basking in the earnings news, analysts are still shaking their heads over the rift between Pixar and Disney, which distributed such films as "Finding Nemo," "Monsters Inc." and "Toy Story" I and II. The film distribution agreement is set to expire in 2005.
"In a sense both companies lose in this scenario," said Miller. "Disney is losing the product, but Pixar will now have to finance 100 percent of its projects instead of sharing 50-50 with Disney."
On a conference call with analysts following the earnings release Wednesday afternoon, Jobs took several shots at Disney and specifically at its CEO, Michael Eisner.
Jobs insisted that Pixar asked for less from Disney during 10 months of fruitless negotiations over a new distribution deal than it could have gotten from other studios, and said it was "unlikely" the parties would return to the negotiating table.
"It's time to move on," he said. On the conference call, Jobs said that there are four companies that could do as good a job as Disney and that he intends to begin negotiations in March and have a new partner selected by this fall.
Before the call, analysts had speculated that potential partners might include, Fox, Sony and Warner Bros., part of Time Warner, which is the parent of CNN/Money.com.
Jobs also referred to a December article in the Los Angeles Times, in which Eisner was quoted by a third party as questioning "Finding Nemo"'s quality and potential in the marketplace. In the article, Eisner was quoted as saying that the film's failure would be a wake-up call for the "high-flying" Pixar and would give Disney an advantage in reneogtiating the distribution deal.
"Obviously, things turned out quite differently," Jobs told the conference call audience.
Preparing for life on its own
The talks between Pixar and Disney had been going on for some time. Most analysts thought the talks would be hardball, with Pixar pushing for a bigger piece of the pie and more control over "derivatives" (theme park rights, sequels, etc.)
But they also assumed something would be worked out. When the parties agreed to disagree at the end of January, The Street reacted negatively.
Pixar shares have been right around $64 since the Disney deal fell through. Most analysts feel the stock is, if anything, overvalued, trading at around 45 times earnings.
"The Street was expecting a deal between Disney and Pixar and it didn't happen," said Shub Mukherjee, research associate with Oppenheimer. "Now, we don't see much news until Pixar's out on its own. For the short term investor, that doesn't offer much."
And Miller argues that, absent successful marriage counseling for the alienated Hollywood couple, the long term is now riskier than ever for Pixar.
"Sure, Disney loses the films," he said. "But Pixar has to pay all the costs of making the movies, and if they stumble and deliver a bomb, it's look out below!"
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