NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It sure doesn't feel like it from the way the stock markets have been acting, but so far, second-quarter earnings have been stellar.

Of the 77 members of the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 93 percent have met or topped estimates, according to Thomson/First Call. In the last week alone, First Call's projections for second-quarter earnings have risen from 19.7 percent growth versus the same period a year ago to 21 percent growth. Not exactly a bad thing.

Actual earnings should rise somewhere around 25 percent year over year, said First Call analyst Jaceem Hasib, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with year-over-year growth of at least 20 percent.

But the strength of second-quarter earnings had been predicted for so long that the actual arrival of the earnings has done little for investors. Instead of being the much-longed-for catalyst that moves the markets out of the nearly six-month trading range they've been languishing in, earnings so far have just been mildly supportive.

Meanwhile, as predicted, third-quarter earnings are shaping up to show slower year-over-year growth, due to tougher comparisons to a year earlier. Since July 1, the start of the third quarter, estimates for year-over-year earnings growth in the third quarter have barely budged, tiptoeing from 14.8 percent to 14.9 percent.

What the market really needs, analysts say, is a highly influential bellwether company to say something incredibly bullish, so much so that investors are eager to respond, despite the seasonal tendency for summer doldlrums. Next week brings a whole batch of big bruisers. Maybe one of them can do the trick.

Next week's earnings that matter: 3M, Delta Air Lines, Texas Instruments, General Motors and Ford Motor, Merck, SBC Communications, Amazon.com, Microsoft.

And one that doesn't: Washington Mutual.

3M (MMM: Research, Estimates) had a good 2003, growing its earnings and stock price in tune with an improving economy, a weak dollar and a broad-based stock market recovery. The first half of 2004 has been good for the company as well, although you wouldn't know it from 3M's stock price, which has barely got off square one, much like the broader stock market.

The company raised first-quarter earnings estimates, then beat them. It has also raised second-quarter and full-year 2004 earnings estimates. The continuing weakness in the dollar has been a boon for 3M, due to the fact that 50 percent of the company's business is international. The still-low interest rate environment has been supportive as well.

Analysts continue to wonder – as they have for some time – what happens to companies like 3M when the dollar turns higher and short-term interest rates rise more aggressively. The recent mixed signals about economic growth in the second-quarter are another mild concern, although the company is diverse enough to be fairly well protected if there is a slower period of growth, analysts say.

As for issues specific to the company, its very profitable optic-film business is set to face some competition in 2005, now that General Electric is entering the market. However, its pharmaceutical unit has been charging ahead in the first half, setting it up to reap stronger profit from that arm in the future.

Why it matters: The company is one of the most telling cyclical issues out there, due to the breadth of its product line and the international scope of its business. If the economic recovery is indeed slowing down, as some fear, there ought to be indications of that in 3M's outlook. If the economic recovery is actually doing just fine, thank you very much, the earnings and outlook should reflect that as well.

First Call forecast: 96 cents a share versus 78 cents a year ago.

In the troubled airline industry, no carrier is in more distress than Delta Air Lines (DAL: Research, Estimates).

Despite stronger demand for air travel in the second quarter at No. 3 carrier Delta and throughout the industry, Delta's losses are forecast to rise in the second quarter. The other troubled major carriers' losses are forecast to fall compared to a year earlier.

High fuel prices during the quarter were part of the problem. Fuel is the airlines' second largest expense behind labor.

That's Delta's biggest problem. But it also gave its pilots a large raise just before the Sept. 11 attack, and unlike its larger competitors, American Airlines parent AMR (AMR: Research, Estimates) and bankrupt United Airlines parent UAL (UALAQ: Research, Estimates), it has not been able to win wage concessions back from its pilots union. Executives at Delta have warned the airline could be the next to fly into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protections unless it wins the reported $1 billion a year in wage concessions it is seeking from the company's pilots union.

Why it matters: Delta is one of the first major carriers to report results for the quarter. Its results could give a picture of what to expect from competitors such as Northwest Airlines (NWAC: Research, Estimates) and Continental Airlines (CAL: Research, Estimates).

If Delta is forced to seek bankruptcy protection, it would put further pressure on other troubled competitors to perhaps seek the cost-cutting advantages of bankruptcy. Therefore even airline investors not owning Delta shares will be looking closely at its quarterly report, and its executives' comments.

First Call forecast: A loss of $2.02 a share versus a loss of $1.95 a share a year ago.

Semiconductor stocks have been shellacked recently, mainly due to concerns about rising inventories and weakening corporate demand for computers and servers. Intel's disappointing second-quarter results added more fuel to those fears.

Consumer spending on tech, however, has remained relatively robust. But is that still the case? Texas Instruments (TXN: Research, Estimates)' results and guidance will help answer that question since its chips are used in devices such as MP3 players and plasma TVs.

But investors are especially hoping to hear that sales of TI's digital signal processors used in cell phones are still healthy, despite woes at Nokia, one of its top customers.

Why it matters: Because it is less reliant on PC sales, some chip-stock followers say that TI, not Intel, is the true semiconductor industry bellwether. So if the more diversified TI boosts its sales guidance, this move could indicate that demand is just fine (which could also lessen the inventory buildup concerns).

And that could lead to a rebound for the beleaguered chip sector, not to mention manufacturers of cell phones and other high-tech equipment.

First Call forecast: 25 cents a share versus 7 cents a year ago.

This is the quarter investors might get to see how much fuel prices and concerns about fuel efficiency hurt the nation's top automakers.

General Motors (GM: Research, Estimates) and Ford Motor (F: Research, Estimates) both saw sales of some of their most profitable sport-utility vehicles slump in the quarter, though not as much as might have been expected in the face of record prices at the fuel pump. While the overall number of vehicles sold has been reported, the automakers have yet to report the prices they've been able to get for the SUVs and other light truck models that have been the basis for their profits.

Still, Ford raised its earnings guidance for the quarter a month ago, and GM has said that it still anticipates to hit its earlier guidance for earnings growth for the second quarter and the year, and that it is still aiming for strong earnings growth to $10 a share by 2006. Analysts have forecasts at the high ends of both companies' guidance.

Why they matter: The U.S. auto industry is still both a key building block of the economy, as well as an excellent indicator of consumer spending. Spending on motor vehicles and parts represented almost a quarter of retail sales last year.

Rising interest rates can also hit results at the automakers. Besides increasing the cost of zero-interest financing packages being offered to consumers, rising rates could hurt the nonauto finance business of General Motors Acceptance Corp., one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders. GMAC and Ford Credit have been important drivers of the two companies' profits in recent years.

First Call forecasts: GM – $2.24 a share versus $1.58 a year ago; Ford – 50 cents a share versus 22 cents a year ago.

As a sector, big pharma hasn't been popular of late. The big rally of 2003 -- ending a three-year bear market -- saw battered investors thirsty for stocks that could offer big returns, not slow and steady gainers like the drugmakers. Add to that the threat of Congress passing a drug re-importation bill -- which would allow consumers to gain easier access to lower-priced drugs from Canada and other nations -- and you can see why the stocks haven't been terribly appealing.

But that could change. The likelihood of continued insecurity in the stock market in the next few months and a push away from tech and toward more secure blue chips is good news for the big pharma sector. Additionally, recent comments from Congress imply that any vote on drug re-importation likely will not happen until at least next year, analysts say.

Why it matters: There are also some major drug launches on tap in the second half of 2004, including Merck (MRK: Research, Estimates) and Schering-Plough (SGP: Research, Estimates)'s cholesterol-lowering treatment Vytorin. Both Merck and Pfizer (PFE: Research, Estimates) -- which markets leading cholesterol-lowering medicine Lipitor -- are expected to benefit from new U.S. government guidelines that are likely to increase the number of people who take such medicines.

This week brings a number of big pharma companies. Eli Lilly (LLY: Research, Estimates) reports Thursday and is expected to have earned 68 cents versus 64 cents a year earlier. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY: Research, Estimates) also reports Thursday and is expected to have earned 39 cents per share, down from 44 cents a year earlier. Pfizer reports Friday and is expected to have earned 46 cents per share, versus 30 cents a year earlier.

First Call forecast: 79 cents a share, unchanged from a year ago.

At first blush, the profitability of Washington Mutual (WM: Research, Estimates), the No. 2 U.S. mortgage lender, would seem to matter a great deal.

In recent years, no business has been more closely tied to the health of the broader economy than the mortgage business. Homeowners, analysts and investors have been closely following the health of the industry for signs that rising interest rates are going to put a damper on housing demand and maybe even pop that mythical housing bubble everybody's talking about.

Last year, mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in more than 40 years, triggering a boom in demand for new mortgages and mortgage refinancing, a bonanza to mortgage lenders.

But an improving economy and signs of inflation have led interest rates back up this year, snuffing out refi activity and threatening to slow demand for new loans. Though mortgage lenders will still make money from their outstanding loans, weaker refi and origination activities mean the salad days are likely over.

When WaMu warned late in June that a bump in rates would slam its 2004 profits, shares of other mortgage lenders, such as Wells Fargo (WFC: Research, Estimates), Countrywide (CFC: Research, Estimates) and Golden West Financial (GDW: Research, Estimates), were briefly hurt.

Why it (sort of) doesn't matter: But Countrywide, the No. 3 mortgage lender, quickly distanced itself from WaMu, saying rising rates weren't hurting its profitability at all.

And many industry analysts agreed that many of WaMu's problems were unique to WaMu, including the hangover from its rapid expansion program in recent years and the fact that bigger banks are finally cutting their fees to better compete with WaMu and stop it from taking market share away.

What's more, Citigroup (C: Research, Estimates), HSBC or some other big bank could soon buy WaMu, making the whole issue moot.

But beware: Countrywide, No. 1 lender Wells Fargo and other lenders are still due to report earnings. If they surprise analysts by echoing some of WaMu's concerns, WaMu's pain might be more significant than it now seems.

First Call forecast: 59 cents a share versus 66 cents a year ago.

Telecom is a tough business. Price competition is brutal and new technologies are usurping the traditional landline.

That's why Baby Bell SBC (SBC: Research, Estimates) is doing everything it can to remain relevant in a rapidly changing industry. Its Cingular unit (which SBC co-owns with BellSouth (BLS: Research, Estimates)) is in the process of acquiring AT&T Wireless (AWE: Research, Estimates) in order to boost its wireless presence.

The company also announced last month that it plans to spend as much as $6 billion over the next five years to build a fiber-optic network. Such a network will help it compete more effectively against cable companies, which have started to offer telecom services of their own.

This all sounds like savvy strategy for the long term. But an impatient Wall Street has been largely unimpressed. SBC's stock has fallen more than 6 percent this year.

Why it matters: Investors are hoping that an improving economy will boost corporate demand for SBC's local and long-distance services in the near term. And since SBC is the first Baby Bell to report, its results will give some clues about how things are going at BellSouth and Verizon (VZ: Research, Estimates) as well.

Specifically, it will be interesting to see whether or not SBC is able to post healthy gains in subscribers and revenues from more advanced technologies such as digital subscriber line (DSL) high-speed Internet access, wireless, and Internet phone calling, often referred to as voice-over-Internet protocol (VoIP). If so, that bodes well for other telecoms.

First Call forecast: 36 cents a share versus 42 cents a year ago.

Thanks to low prices, free shipping, and the breadth of its offerings, the king of online retailers is expected to post another quarter of 90 percent year-over-year earnings growth, just like it did in the first quarter. Sales are expected to jump 30 percent from a year earlier.

But like the rest of the market, Amazon.com stock hasn't been doing much lately. After zooming more than 178 percent in 2003, it's down 7.5 percent in 2004. Maybe it's the overall market malaise. Or maybe investors are getting wary.

Amazon is trading at 48 times expected 2004 earnings, not cheap, whether you consider the company more of an online play or more of a retail play.

Amazon grew its earnings in the first quarter thanks in large part to continued cost-cutting initiatives, and at the expense of boosting its gross margins as aggressively as some had hoped. Gross margins represent a key measure of profitability.

Why it matters: Driven by cost-cutting or not, Amazon's sales will be taken as a key measure of consumer demand, important for the retail sector, and for the economy, particularly amid worries that spending is slowing down.

First Call forecast: 19 cents a share versus 10 cents a year ago.

It seems that just about every major software company has issued an earnings warning lately. Of course, that's not really true. But investors have soured on the near-term prospects for the software sector. Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) could change that with a solid report.

Hopes are high that the world's largest software company will be able to benefit from what appears to be a strengthening economy.

After all, most of the software warnings have come from smaller players. SAP (SAP: Research, Estimates) boosted its second quarter guidance this month. And PC sales are still expected to be fairly strong in the quarter, which should help Microsoft.

But investors may very well overlook the near-term fundamentals if Microsoft finally gives Wall Street some details for how it will use its massive hoard of cash, which stood at more than $56 billion at the end of March.

The company has promised Wall Street that it will unveil a plan by the end of the month, either in the earnings announcement or at its analyst meeting on July 29.

Why it matters: Tech investors are very confused. Are all the recent software warnings a sign that IT corporate spending is slowing down, or are they just examples of second-tier companies losing market share to rivals? If Microsoft's guidance is decent, that could throw cold water on the argument that the tech profit cycle is peaking.

In addition, what Microsoft decides to do with its cash could also have a broader impact on tech stocks. If Mister Softee boosts its dividend significantly, then that could be a signal that it sees itself, and other PC-focused companies, as mature. (i.e. slow growth)

But if Microsoft announces a large share buyback program, then that could be interpreted as a sign that the company thinks its stock is a good value and that there is decent growth ahead.

First Call forecast: 29 cents a share versus 23 cents a year ago.