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Bets off on Miers confirmation?
Things don't look rosy for Supreme Court nominee based on online bidding.
October 21, 2005: 1:15 PM EDT
Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers
Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers' confirmation by the Senate looks doubtful, according to an online site where traders can bet on future events.

Traders at Intrade, a futures market based in Dublin, Ireland have been betting that Miers, President Bush's nomination to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court, will not be confirmed when she appears before members of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Nov. 7.

According to the company's Web site, the current contract was at $40 in midday Thursday trading, down $22 from its previous close of $62.

The bidding on Miers' confirmation, which is one of Intrade's most traded contracts, is scheduled to end on Dec. 31. It opened on Oct. 4 at its highest point of $92.50 and has fallen steadily since.

Miers, the White House counsel and President Bush's longtime personal attorney, was nominated for the post on Oct. 3.

Intrade, which allows traders to bet on such future events as who will be named the next chairman of the Federal Reserve or whether Osama Bin Laden will be captured or 'neutralized,' by Dec. 31, has had a lot of success predicting the future, according to Mike Knesevitch, the director of communications at Trade Exchange Network which is the parent company of Intrade.

"It's been incredibly reliable, its almost spooky," he said, pointing at the market's ability to pick the selection of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger as the new pope, President Bush's victory and the correct electoral vote outcome for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the 2004 election.

Recent news reports have weighed on the contract including Friday's editorial section of the Wall Street Journal, in which the paper called the nomination by President Bush "a political blunder of the first order."

If confirmed, Miers would replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.


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Harriet Miers
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