Disney's high seas gamble pays off The 'Pirates of the Caribbean' sequel broke box office records. That's good news for Disney, which has already committed to a third film for next summer. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- This story is an update of one that originally ran on July 5. Arrrghh matey! After setting a box office record this past weekend, nobody from Walt Disney is going to have to walk the plank.
The eagerly awaited "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" grossed $132 million at the box office during its opening weekend, breaking the previous three-day record of $114.8 million set by "Spider-Man" in 2002. This is obviously great news for Disney (Charts), which had an unexpected $305 million blockbuster hit with "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" in 2003. Based on that film's success, Disney decided to begin filming two sequels back to back, a move that was viewed by some as being a bit dicey since sequels don't always pan out. "Any time you are producing back to back sequels you are taking a big risk," said Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com, a movie industry research site. "Usually, studios don't jump into an expensive endeavor like that unless they know it's going to be a slam dunk." The gamble has obviously paid off. And now, people will start to wonder if the third movie, which is rumored to be named "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" and scheduled to be released in the U.S. on May 25, 2007, can surpass the opening of "Dead Man's Chest." It seems safe to say that the "Pirates" trilogy will turn out to be more like "The Lord of the Rings" for Disney than "The Matrix" and "Back to the Future?" "Rings" ruled but "Back to the Future" sunk Time Warner's New Line Cinema unit took a big gamble when it decided to film all three movies in "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy simultaneously. (Time Warner (Charts) also owns CNNMoney.com.) But this turned out to be a huge success for the studio: "The Fellowship of the Ring" grossed $313.4 million in the U.S., according to figures from movie research firm Box Office Mojo, when it was released in December 2001 and was also a critical favorite. The next two movies did even better. "The Two Towers" grossed $339.8 million while "The Return of the King" wound up raking in $377 million and swept the Oscars. New Line's corporate cousin, Warner Bros. was not so lucky with "The Matrix." The first movie, a surprise hit in 1999, grossed $171.5 million and became an instant cult favorite. That spurred the film's creators to produce two sequels simultaneously and release them in the same calendar year. The first Matrix sequel, "The Matrix Reloaded" was a colossal hit, generating nearly $281.6 million in ticket sales after being released in May 2003. But the movie was a critical bomb that also disappointed many fans. As a result, "The Matrix Revolutions," released in November 2003, was a bust, grossing just $139 million at the box office. Universal fared even worse with "Back to the Future." The first movie in that trilogy grossed more than $210 million in 1985. Two sequels were released within a span of six months in 1989 and 1990 but both were disappointments. The box office take for the second and third "Back to the Future" films combined was less than the first film. But before "Dead Man's Chest" opened, many movie industry experts were predicting that both "Pirates" sequels will avoid the fate of "The Matrix" and "Back to the Future" rake in plenty of doubloons. After all, the same director of the first movie is at the helm for both sequels and the cast from the first "Pirates" remains intact. "The buzz is that the second movie should out gross the first one, at least for the opening weekend, and that the success of a third film is absolutely assured," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., a box office tracking firm. The first "Pirates" made about $46.6 million during its opening weekend. I saw the movie at a special screening on Wednesday night and agree that Disney had nothing to worry about. Fans of the first movie have been impressed. "Dead Man's Chest" ends with a great cliffhanger that will have people eagerly counting the days until the third "Pirates" movie hits theaters next summer. Depp's a huge draw Keira Knightley and Orlando Bloom, who also starred in "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy as Legolas the elf, are both attractive young actors who should appeal to younger audiences And most importantly, there's Johnny Depp. His transfixing performance as the lisping, sexually ambiguous and seemingly perpetually drunk Jack Sparrow charmed both kids as well as many adult women who are normally turned off by big budget summer popcorn flicks. Depp even earned an Academy Award nomination for Best Actor for his portrayal of Sparrow. "This is a very fun summer thrill ride that should have broad appeal with men and women," said Pandya. "It probably has the strongest female appeal of any action movie franchise and that's key for making the grosses reach the stratosphere. Any action film can get the guys in. Getting women is a tougher sell." In fact, Pandya said that "Pirates" could wind up being the biggest hit of the year, surpassing current leader "X-Men: The Last Stand." That movie, released by News Corp. (Charts) subsidiary Fox, has taken about $230 million at the box office so far. Based on its opening weekend, "Pirates" should have no problem overtaking "X-Men" by the end of the summer. That would obviously be great news for Disney, which is also basking in the glow of a more than $200 million box office grosses for its latest movie from Pixar, "Cars." And even though many Wall Street analysts are quick to say that investors discount the performance of theatrical releases because it is an unpredictable hit-driven business, movies are undeniably an important part of the Disney story. Sales from Disney's studio entertainment division accounted for nearly a quarter of the company's total revenues during the first six months of this fiscal year. So a big "Pirates" box office bounty is just the latest welcome development for Disney shareholders. The stock is already up more than 25 percent so far this year. Shares were up nearly 2 percent in pre-market trading Monday thanks to the big opening weekend. And one analyst, Laura Martin of Soleil -- Media Metrics raised her revenue targets for fiscal 2006 and 2007 Monday morning in order to reflect the movie's box office bonanza. "This movie is a crowd pleaser. People are really champing at the bit to go see this one. I think this will pay off for Disney," Dergarabedian said. Yo-ho-ho! _____________________ Related: Eisner and other media vets debate the impact of YouTube Related: DVD or download? Related: X marks the spot at the box office The reporter of this story owns shares of Time Warner through his company's 401(k) plan. |
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