Trade gap narrower than expected
Deficit between imports and exports edges only slightly higher in May, comes in below forecasts.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The nation's trade deficit edged only narrowly higher in May despite soaring oil imports, as Americans' appetite for non-energy imports started to show signs of waning and U.S. exports made gains in global markets.

The value of imports exceeded exports by $63.8 billion in the month, up from a revised $63.3 billion gap in April. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a $65 billion trade deficit.

Imports rose 2 percent in the period to a record $182.5 billion. But the gap stayed relatively in check because exports also rose 2 percent to a record $118.7 billion.

"It looks like the real trade deficit may be starting to stabilize and turn around," said Jay Bryson, international economist for Wachovia. "The big thing that causes export growth is foreign economic growth. This report reflects strength in the rest of the world."

But Bryson said that the trade gap is likely to continue to edge higher in the near term and likely won't see even modest declines until the end of the year. The rising oil prices will continue to push up the trade gap.

The gap attributed to oil imports shot up 21 percent a record $25.4 billion, a $4.4 billion jump that was the biggest one-month change in that measure on record. The oil trade gap was 9 percent above the previous record deficit, set in October 2005, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

The oil trade gap was driven by the average price of a barrel of imported oil rise to a record $61.74 a barrel in May, according to the report. And August oil futures for the most attractive grade of oil hit $75.78 a barrel, a record high, on Friday, and many experts believe $70 oil could be around for a while.

Gains outside of oil

But the gap attributed to non-petroleum imports fell 9 percent from April to May to $43.2 billion. Part of that was due to a broad-based gain in U.S. exports. Products ranging from soybeans to aluminum and from civilian aircraft to drugs and telecom equipment all saw solid gains.

Meanwhile, U.S. demand for some key import categories fell significantly, a sign of the slowing U.S. economy that Bryson said will also be a key to trimming the trade gap. The Federal Reserve, and most economists, are forecasting slower U.S. economic growth in the second half of this year.

Imports of cotton products such as apparel and household goods fell $346 million, while purchases of televisions and VCR's made overseas fell by $296 million. Imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors fell by $387 million, and imported automobiles and auto parts were down $522 million compared to April.

The biggest gap with any one trading partner was with China once again, as imports from that country outstripped exports by $17.7 billion, up from $17 billion in April and $15.8 billion a year earlier.

And that gap may keep rising, as China has already reported an increase in its trade surplus for June. But even the numbers with China showed some promise; U.S. exports to China were up 40 percent from a year earlier to $4.5 billion, which was faster than the 17 percent growth in U.S. imports from China over the same period.

The problem is that imports from China are almost five times as great as U.S. exports there, so exports would have to grow at an 83 percent pace just to keep the trade gap with the country level, given the current rate of import growth.

Related: Surplus spurs Chinese trade policy debate Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.