Gift shoppers: Bag your best bargains early

As merchants stock less holiday merchandise, retail experts say procrastinators will either miss the best deals or products when they are finally ready to buy.

EMAIL  |   PRINT  |   SHARE  |   RSS
 
google my aol my msn my yahoo! netvibes
Paste this link into your favorite RSS desktop reader
See all CNNMoney.com RSS FEEDS (close)
By Parija B. Kavilanz, CNNMoney.com senior writer

chart_holiday_sales.ju.gif
chart_holiday_consumer.ju.gif
What is your favorite Apple product?
  • iMac/MacBook
  • iPod
  • iPhone
  • iTunes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you expect holiday bargains to get better as Christmas Eve draws near, you may be disappointed this year.

Retailers aren't as panicked about the upcoming holiday shopping season as they were last year.

That's bad news for shoppers because this could mean leaner sales, sparsely stocked stores and a run on the best deals for such sought-after items as smartphones, thigh-high boots, side-sling bags and ruffled cardigans.

With this scenario in mind, retail experts said their No. 1 tip for gift shoppers this year is grab what you want, when you see it.

"Merchants got burned badly last year when they were left with a lot of unsold merchandise after Christmas," said George Whalin, retail expert and president and CEO of Retail Management Consultants.

And since the past 10 months have been a sales nightmare for most merchants, amid an ongoing spending slump, sellers have up to 30% less merchandise stocked for the year-end gift-buying season that unofficially kicks off the day after Thanksgiving.

The November-December period is critical for sellers because it can account for as much as 50% or more of retailers' profits and sales for the full year.

Without the fear of being overstocked, merchants will also be less promotional with holiday goods versus last year in order to preserve their profits.

So don't expect big red sales signs screaming 50%, 60% or even 70% off right after Black Friday, analysts said.

"This year, the magic point for retailers will probably be 40% off and maybe 50% and another 20% off on clearance items much later in the season," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with market research firm NPD Group.

Will there be a holiday rush?

With the nation's unemployment rate at its highest level in more than two decades, no one expects Americans to whip up an uninhibited shopping frenzy over holiday gifts.

The National Retail Federation, the industry's largest trade group, expects holiday sales will decline 1% this year, although that dip would be an improvement over 2008's 3.4% drop for the season.

Still, some industry watchers say the recent pick-up in monthly sales seen at chain stores, coupled with more than a year of pent-up demand among consumers, could make it hard for many to resist "splurging" a little bit on the seasonal sales that are coming up.

If that happens, it could bring a run on some merchandise in the coming weeks, said Craig Johnson, president of retail consulting group Customer Growth Partners.

If some sellers are caught with product shortfalls, Johnson said they could even sneak in spring merchandise by December to fill any vacant spots in their stores.

"This is not a totally new phenomenon," he said. "We've heard rumors that some teen-focused retailers may bring in spring products by mid-December."

Johnson also gave examples of what he expects to be this year's hot holiday sellers. "Everyone already has a big flatscreen TV," said Johnson, "E-readers, whether it's [Amazon's (AMZN, Fortune 500)] Kindle or Barnes & Noble's Nook e-reader that's coming out later this year, are going to be hot."

Smartphones and gaming consoles will be top purchases as well, he said. In clothing and accessories, women's embellished leggings, boots, sweater vests and side-sling handbags will be in big demand, Johnson said.

NPD's Cohen, has a somewhat different perspective.

"If consumers can't find something in one store, they will look elsewhere, or online," Cohen said.

Regarding introducing spring products during the winter sales events, Cohen said that it could actually be a smart move by retailers to infuse some newness and freshness into the stores.

"You want to keep consumers coming back to the store. It's a good way to get holiday gift card [recipients] to come back, too," he said.

Countering Johnson's predications of holiday hot sellers, Cohen thinks many consumers will shop for traditional gifts.

"It's back to tradition this year. Sweaters, perfumes, small leather items, music. movies, board games and gift cards," he said.

The single biggest holiday shopping trend, however, will be "fewer people on the shopping list," said Cohen. 'For those on the bottom of the list, people will be baking cookies."

Talkback: Are you giving more or fewer holiday gifts, and how much do you plan to spend per gift this year versus last year? E-mail your response to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  To top of page

Features
They're hiring!These Fortune 100 employers have at least 350 openings each. What are they looking for in a new hire? More
If the Fortune 500 were a country...It would be the world's second-biggest economy. See how big companies' sales stack up against GDP over the past decade. More
Sponsored By:
More Galleries
10 of the most luxurious airline amenity kits When it comes to in-flight pampering, the amenity kits offered by these 10 airlines are the ultimate in luxury More
7 startups that want to improve your mental health From a text therapy platform to apps that push you reminders to breathe, these self-care startups offer help on a daily basis or in times of need. More
5 radical technologies that will change how you get to work From Uber's flying cars to the Hyperloop, these are some of the neatest transportation concepts in the works today. More
Sponsors
Worry about the hackers you don't know 
Crime syndicates and government organizations pose a much greater cyber threat than renegade hacker groups like Anonymous. Play
GE CEO: Bringing jobs back to the U.S. 
Jeff Immelt says the U.S. is a cost competitive market for advanced manufacturing and that GE is bringing jobs back from Mexico. Play
Hamster wheel and wedgie-powered transit 
Red Bull Creation challenges hackers and engineers to invent new modes of transportation. Play

Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.