The Same River Twice

(MONEY Magazine) – Wayne Hummer Asset Management's Sandy Lincoln has compared today's market with the way things looked the first time the Dow hit 10,000. It's a different world.

Indicator Early 1999 Late 2003 S&P 500 price/earnings ratio[1] 35 27 S&P 500 dividend yield 1.2% 1.6% Corporate profit growth[2] 10% 25% GDP growth[3] 6.2% 8.2% Inflation 1.7% 1.8% 90-day T-bill yield 4.5% 0.9% Gold, per ounce $280 $410 Oil, per barrel $16 $32 Euro $1.07 $1.24

Note: As of Dec. 23, 2003. [1] Based on earnings in prior four quarters. [2] Growth in quarter prior to 10,000 mark vs. same quarter previous year. [3] Growth in quarter prior to 10,000 mark, at annual rate, vs. previous quarter. Sources: Wayne Hummer, Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson/Baseline.