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The 4Q bargain basement
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February 2, 2002: 3:19 p.m. ET
Advertisers shy away from fourth-quarter Super Bowl ads due to blowout risk.
By Staff Writer Chris Isidore
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Advertisers aren't expecting a close game Sunday. History would say they're right.
The bargain basement of television's most expensive day is the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl, when viewership is expected to fall off, and advertising prices do as well. The last few spots that Fox had to scramble to sell were reportedly in the fourth quarter.
Historically, by the fourth quarter of the game the outcome is pretty well set, and a lot of the game's more casual fans and viewers are turning elsewhere. Bookmakers aren't predicting anything different this time. They've made the New England Patriots one of the biggest underdogs in the game's history with a more than two-touchdown point spread.
The nature of football makes upsets unusual, and close contests in the championship game the exception, not the rule. Baseball's World Series had four games last year come down to the final pitch with the game tied or the potential tying run at the plate. All five of the games the year before ended that way. The Super Bowl hasn't had that many games come down to the last play in its history.
For example last year's game saw the number of households watching the game fall more than 10 percent as the large-market New York Giants went from down a relatively close 10-0 at half time to a 24-7 deficit late in the third quarter. The game ended up 34-7.
Because of the risk of drop-off in viewers discounts can be 30 or 40 percent off the nearly $2 million price tag of an average 30-second spot, according to advertising buyers. If the game is one of the rare close Super Bowl contests, the ad buyer can look like a hero for saving money that way. But some of those buyers say they still aren't interested in the late game spots.
"I don't think the Super Bowl is the right place to buy a spot that is less expensive," said Andrew Donchin, director of national broadcast for Carat USA, a media buying agency. "You have to be very wary, because even if you save $300,000, it could turn out you could have paid more on a cost-per-thousand (viewers) basis. It's one of handful of events where the position is as important as the price. Where your spot runs is part of negotiations."
Fox officials say they can't worry about things they can't control, such as the score, but they believe the game will be interesting enough to hold viewers.
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Pat Summerall, left, will work his last game with long-time partner John Madden, right, at Sunday's Super Bowl, and Fox hopes fans will stick around for a tribute to Summerall in the post-game show. | |
"You go in hoping it's a competitive game, but I think the numbers will hold up regardless," said Fox Sports President Ed Goren at a press conference last week. He said Fox broadcast team of Pat Summerall and John Madden, who are working their last game together, should be able to help hold viewers even with a blowout.
"One of the things I've said about Pat and John, of all the broadcast teams in football, they tend to hold an audience longer in a bad game," he said.
Summerall is widely recognized as one of the best play-by-play announcers in sports, and has a fan following of his own who might want to see what could be his last game to the end. Fox also has some tributes planned during its broadcasts, although executives won't reveal details.
"I suggest every Nielsen set stay on all the way through the end of the post-game or you might miss a very special moment," said Goren.
But Donchin said that even Summerall's popularity and imminent departure won't hold the ratings in a blowout.
"Its going to be competitiveness of the game that will hold audience," he said. "People are going to go to other things if it's a blowout." 
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