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News > Economy  
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Business inventories fall
January's small gain revised to loss, extending decline in stockpiles to 13 straight months.
April 15, 2002: 10:30 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. businesses cut inventories for the 13th straight month in February, the government said Monday, though sales fell, a sign that the recovery from the nation's first recession in a decade could be less than robust.

The Commerce Department reported that inventories at U.S. businesses fell 0.1 percent in February after falling a revised 0.1 percent in January. January's inventory shift had first been reported as a gain of 0.2 percent, which would have been the first rise in inventories since January 2001.

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Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected inventories to be flat in February. Most economists think inventory growth following a record reduction in the fourth quarter will give a huge boost to first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health.

"Prior to the release of [Monday's] report, we all expected that inventories would be the 500-pound gorilla component in the first quarter's real GDP reading," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "After going through this report, we learn that, although inventories will continue to be the dominating theme of the overall report, this gorilla appears to have started dieting a bit and may therefore end up being somewhat less important in the first quarter while simultaneously increasing its positive contribution during the second quarter."

The Commerce Department said sales at U.S. businesses fell 0.9 percent in February, the biggest drop since November, after rising a revised 0.9 percent in January. And the stocks-to-sales ratio -- the time it would take to deplete inventories at the current sales pace -- rose to 1.38 months from a revised 1.37 months in January.

U.S. stock prices were mixed in early trading, while Treasury bond prices fell.

A long period of inventory reduction has followed a glut of spending in the late 1990s and 2000. When the spending bubble burst, businesses were left with an excess of inventories, causing manufacturers to stop producing goods.

A manufacturing recession followed, leading to more than a million job cuts and a recession in the broader economy. Economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research think the broader recession began in March 2001. They have not yet declared when it ended.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in speeches in February and March that the recession was already over and that businesses' ability to cut inventories would set the stage for a pick-up in production in 2002 -- provided there was also a pick-up in demand for new goods.

A continuing decline in business inventories could indicate that businesses still don't see great demand for their products. On the other hand, the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating a turnaround could be on the way, and many economists still think inventories will add to first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health.

Even though inventories have fallen in the first quarter, the Commerce Department measures the swing from quarter to quarter, economists pointed out. Inventories fell a record $119 billion in the fourth quarter, so even a loss of $15 billion in the first quarter will mean a positive swing from quarter to quarter of $104 billion.

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"What matters for GDP growth is neither the level of inventories nor the change, but the change in the change," said Henry Willmore, senior economist at Barclays Capital. "That's going to be quite positive. In fact, inventories will contribute close to 4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter."

To keep consumers spending during the downturn, the Fed slashed its target for short-term interest rates 11 times in 2001. It left rates alone at its first two policy meetings in 2002, and observers began to speculate about when the central bank might start to raise rates.

If the labor market continues to worsen -- unemployment rose in March to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent in February -- then the Fed might be inclined to leave rates lower for longer, many economists think, especially with inflation relatively low.  Top of page






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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.