Where the economy is headed

Economist GDP 2Q 2011 GDP 2011 GDP 2012 Total job gain June Priv sec job gain June June unemployment rate Total job gain 2011(millions) Total job gain 2012 (millions) Unemployment rate 12/2011 Unemployment rate 12/2012 June CPI June core CPI CPI 2011 CPI 2012 12-mo home price change 2Q 2011 2011 home price change 2012 home price change 10-yr Treasury yield 12/2011 10-yr Treasury yield 12/2012
Allen Sinai Decision Economics 1.3 2.3 3 110,000 122,000 9.1 1.6 2.1 8.8 8.3 3.8 1.6 3.6 2.6 -3.8 -3 -0.9 3.25 3.9
Bernard Baumohl Economic Outlook Group 2.3 2.6 3.3 70,000 80,000 9.2 1.3 2 9.3 8.3 3.8 1.6 3.6 4.4       3.8 4.6
Bill Watkins Center for Economic Research and Forecasting 2 2.4 3.4 21,000 32,000 9.15 1.6 1.8 8.9 8.2 3.7 1.6 3 3.2 -7 -5 -2 4.08 4.41
Bob Brusca FAO Economics       25,000 50,000 8.8 1.968 2.52 8 7 3.9 1.5 3.2 1.9 -3.5 -3 0 300 400
Bob Stein First Trust Advisors 2 3.3 4.1 115,000 135,000 9 2.4 2.4 8.5 7.6 3.2 1.6 3.1 3 -7.3 0.6 6 3.8 4.9
Brett Ryan Deutsche Bank 2.3 3.0 3.6 125,000 145,000 9.0 2.2 3 8.4 7.2 3.5 1.6 3.3 3.0 -4 -5 2.5 3.5 4.5
David Berson PMI Group 2.1 2.9 4 140,000 160,000 9.1 2.3 2.9 8.7 7.8 3.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 -7.9 -1.5 1.2 3.8 4.75
David Nice Mesirow Financial 2.1 2.7 3.5 95,000 115,000 9 2.068 2.8 8.7 8.1 3.3 1.4 3 2 -13.2 -6 2.4 3.65 4.45
David Wyss Brown University 2.2 2.6 3 180,000 205,000 9 1.8 2.2 8.6 8 3.2 1.5 3.3 2 -3 -1 3 4 4.8
George Mokrzan Huntington National Bank 1.7 2.8 2.95 203,000 210,000 9.1 2.4 2.9 8.7 8.2 3.4 1.65 3.2 3.1 -2 0 3 3.85 4.5
James Smith Parsec Financial Management 3.2 3.8 4.4 189,000 235,000 8.9 2.8 3.4 7.8 6.4 3.4 1.6 2.4 1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.47
Keith Hembre Nuveen Asset Management 2 2.25 2.5 100,000 110,000 9.1 1.69 1.8 8.8 8.4 3.2 2.1 2.6 1.5 -4 -5 -1 3 3.25
Kevin Giddis Morgan Keegan 1.9 2.2 2.8 100,000 120,000 8.9 2.4 3.8 8.6 7.5 3.8 1.4 3.2 3.3 -3 -4 2 2.75 3.25
Kurt Karl Swiss Re 2 2.7 3.4 150,000 175,000 9 2.4 3 8.7 7.7 3.6 1.4 2.8 1.6       3.6 4.6
Lawrence Yun National Association of Realtors 2.1 2.4 2.7 110,000 130,000 9 1.4 2 8.8 8.4 3.7 1.7 3.5 3.1 -3 -1 2 3.4 4.2
Lynn Reaser Fermanian Business & Economic Institute 2.4 2.8 3.2 180,000 200,000 9 2 2.2 8.7 8.2 3.7 1.6 2.9 2.2 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.65 4.35
Mark Zandi Moody's Analytics 2.1 3.2 4.3 115,000 121,000 9 2.05 2.96 8.8 7.9 3.5 1.5 3 1.9 -7.2 -3.7 1.1 4.12 5.71
Maury Harris UBS 2.5 2.7 2.5     9 1.746 1.434 8.6 8.3 3.6 1.5 2.9 1.8       3.8 4
Neil Dutta BoA/Merrill Lynch 2 2.4 3.1 125,000 145,000 9.1 1.988 2.25 8.7 8.1 3.8 1.7 3.2 2       3.6 4.5
Patrick O'Keefe J.H. Cohn 1.7 2.5 2.8 175,000 190,000 9.2 2.4 2.8 9 8.8 3.8 1.7 3.6 4 -3.5 -5   2.9 3.3
David Crowe Nat. Assoc of Home Builders 2.3 2.7 3.3 181,000 206,000 9 2.052 2.652 8.8 8.5 3.4 1.5 3.2 1.9 -9.3 -3 2 3.7 4.7
Russell Price Ameriprise Financial 2 2.6 2.8 45,000 70,000 9.1 2.3 2.7 8.6 7.8 3.6 1.5 3 3.2 -5 -1 4 3.75 4.6
Sal Guaieri BMO Financial Group 3.2 2.8 3.1 130,000 150,000 9.1 1.6 2 8.6 8 3.7 1.5 3.2 2.3 -4 -5 -2 3.6 4.3
Sam Bullard Wells Fargo Securities 2 2.4 2.4 130,000 160,000 9.1 1.968 2.22 8.8 8 3.85 1.55 3.3 3       3.3 3.9
Sean Snaith Univ Central Fla 1.9 2.62 2.39 89,000 103,000 9.2 1.484828 2.03078 8.8 8.5 3.3 1.4 3.04 1.7 -3.4 -4.1 -0.75 3.5 4.1
Sue Sterne Economic Analysis Associates 1.4 2.4 2.2 237,000 232,000 8.9 1.7 2.355 8.2 7.6 3.7 1.7 3 2.6 -3 3 3 3.8 4.5
Sung Sohn Cal State Channel Islands 2 2.3 2.7 150,000 160,000 8.9 1.98 2.4 8.5 8.1 3.4 2 3.5 3 -0.5 -2 0 3.17 4
Overnight Avg Rate Latest Change Last Week
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15 yr fixed3.09%3.10%
5/1 ARM3.20%3.22%
30 yr refi4.00%4.08%
15 yr refi3.11%3.19%
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Economic Calendar
Latest ReportNext Update
Home pricesAug 28
Consumer confidenceAug 28
GDPAug 29
Manufacturing (ISM)Sept 4
JobsSept 7
Inflation (CPI)Sept 14
Retail sales Sept 14
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