NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Feeling good about stocks yet? Two up-weeks for the market has gone a long way toward erasing the feeling that the equity market is just one big black hole and given us the taste for rising stocks again.
But are conditions that much better than they were just three weeks ago? Can we really feel good about piling back into stocks? Here's what five people from different corners of the market had to say.
One fund manager is upbeat
Help in a tough market
|
|
|
|
Finally, it seems, the market is paying attention to strong earnings -- and that may be a sign better times are on the way for stocks, said William Batcheller, manager of Armada Tax-Managed Equity. The Dow surged more than 300 points on Tuesday after blue chips improved their profits. It wasn't long ago that the market would have shrugged off the news, he said.
Batcheller said he started cautiously buying in late summer in anticipation of an economic rebound. "We thought the market was setting itself up for a better fourth quarter than a third quarter, and a better '03 than an '02."
Fortune.com: 401(k) First Aid
|
|
|
|
He was especially encouraged by strong earnings reports from banking stocks, and has been adding to Bank of America and other financials with strong consumer and real estate businesses.
A market strategist says he'll be late to the party
Sure, there are signs of a turnaround. But Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp., admits he's always late to the party when stocks rally. He needs more than a short-term blip to make him a believer -- maybe a month or so.
"Four days ain't enough," Johnson said. "It's still too soon for investors to jump back on board until you get more confirmation from the stock market. We've had so many false starts before."
There are still potential weaknesses in the economy, he said. Consumer sentiment, a pillar of the economy, fell sharply in October. Jobless claims fell last week, but the labor market is still struggling, a government report said. Deflation is also a looming threat.
A financial planner is still suspicious
Ron Roge, a certified financial planner in Bohemia, N.Y., isn't advocating any swan dives into stocks. In fact, he thinks investors should simmer down and stop trying to time the market. "Everybody is feeling good, but no one knows if this rally is going to last."
Roge thinks the recent rally may be fueled by short-sellers. Stocks rose a bit, so short sellers, who bet on falling prices, had to cover their positions. As stocks kept rising, it triggered a buying craze.
The only sane strategy for a small investor is to use dollar-cost averaging, Roge believes, in which you commit to buying a fixed dollar amount worth of stocks at pre-determined intervals. You'll buy fewer shares at high prices, and more at low prices, reducing your overall cost.
"You need to have a long-term horizon: If you think the markets will be higher in five years, then you should be investing in stocks," Roge said. "With dollar-cost averaging."
An economist says a rising market makes sense
The market rally makes sense given how oversold the market has been and how the economy has been performing, said Anthony Chan, chief economist of Banc One Investment Advisors. But that doesn't mean investors should expect regular triple-digit gains.
"Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline," Chan said. "Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week."
Encouraged by positive earnings growth on the S&P 500 after several consecutive quarters of no growth or negative growth, plus the likelihood that the quality of earnings coming out now is higher -- and hence more reliable -- than a year ago, Chan said, "I think we're headed in the right direction."
For the long-term investor -- someone with at least an eight- to 10-year horizon, the opportunity to get back into stocks in what are close to oversold conditions is a good one, he thinks. But, he added, "be very careful about short-term horizons."
A 401(k) expert says it's time to buy stocks
Rally or no rally, said 401(k) expert Wayne Bogosian, today is as good a day as any to invest in stocks in your 401(k) and to correct for an overweighting in bonds and cash.
"Ask yourself why you're investing to begin with. If the answer is retirement (and it's more than 7 years off), then the answer all along was you shouldn't have gotten out," Bogosian said. "Now is the time to undo the mistake you've already made." (For more on the risks of investing your long-term money too conservatively, click here.)
Whether the market is up or down, he warned, "be careful about making long-term decisions based on short-term events. Five years from now no one will remember today."
|