NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
The four-year-long Microsoft antitrust saga might finally be nearing an end.
On Friday afternoon, U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly decided to uphold all the terms of the settlement Microsoft made last year with the federal government and rejected harsher remedies proposed by nine other states that had not settled with Microsoft. For more about the case, click here.
Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) has held up relatively well this year when compared with other technology firms. Its stock is down 20 percent year-to-date but the Nasdaq has plunged nearly 32 percent. And Microsoft's shares have surged since the market hit its low point on October 9, gaining 20.5 percent. However, in anticipation of the court decision on Friday, the stock fell about 1 percent.
Microsoft's momentum is likely to shift on Monday though. Jean Orr, an analyst with Nutmeg Securities, says Kollar-Kotelly's decision could provide a boost to the stock. To that end, shares of Microsoft were up more than 4 percent in after-hours trading, according to Island ECN.
"It would be a modest positive because it would remove uncertainty and the market does not like uncertainty," Orr said. Orr owns some shares of Microsoft ("but not enough to move the market," she joked) and Nutmeg does not have an investment banking relationship with the company.
The terms of last year's settlement make it easier for PC makers to use software from Microsoft competitors, force the company to have uniform contracts with personal computer manufacturers, and prohibits the company from retaliating against customers who choose products from Microsoft rivals.
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But nine states, including California, Florida and Massachusetts, have yet to settle. They were asking for stricter terms, such as more disclosure of Microsoft's code (which could make it easier for competitor's software to work on Windows) as well as a version of Windows that would allow for customers to remove Microsoft features more easily.
Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates argued that these more onerous restrictions would be detrimental to the company. But an institutional shareholder says that even if rivals are allowed more access to proprietary code, that would actually not be a bad thing.
For more expert opinion click here
"I understand what they are doing. Microsoft is playing hardball," said John Thompson, manager of the Thompson Plumb Growth fund, which owns about 500,000 Microsoft shares.
"But if it becomes more profitable for companies to try and develop software for the Windows operating system, it makes it less likely that Linux will gain more traction. It will just solidify Microsoft's hold on the operating system business," Thompson said.
Thompson notes the only scenario that would have truly hurt the company was a renewal of the break-up talks. The government originally proposed splitting Microsoft into two companies -- one for Office and other content such as the MSN Internet service and another for the Windows operating system.
Another shareholder says he is just glad that a resolution of the case is finally in sight. "This suit has been about placating competitors, not benefiting consumers," says Kent Mergler, president of Northstar Capital Management and manager of the Fremont New Era Growth fund. Mergler owns about 200,000 shares of Microsoft.
Mergler adds that most of the negatives have been priced into the stock and that as a result of the favorable decision, the stock might break out of the range it has been trading in since April. That's the last time the stock traded above $60. It's been hovering between $45 and $55 for the most part since then.
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