NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Heading into 2003, the question on most investors' minds is whether or not three years of stock market losses will come to an end.

Well, if you believe some January market gauges, you could have the answer to this question as early as January 8...and no later than January 31.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, a market information guide, the first five trading days of a new year tend to be a good measure of how the whole year will pan out.

For example, the S&P 500 has been up during the first five days of trading 33 times since 1950, according to the Almanac. Of those 33 years, the S&P 500 only failed to finish higher for the full year five times. Unfortunately, one of those years was this year. The S&P increased 1.1 percent in the first five days of 2002 but as of December 30, the index was down 23.4 percent.

This indicator has been less reliable for rough starts to the New Year, however. Of the 20 times since 1950 that the S&P 500 has fallen during the first five days of trading, the S&P 500 has finished the year down ten times and up ten times.

Another first month market predictive tool is the so-called January Barometer, which looks at the entire month's market performance. Basically, the theory goes, if the market is up in January, it will be an up year. If the market falls in January, look out below.

First month foreshadowing? The S&P 500's January performance has been a fairly accurate gauge for what it did over the entire year recently. Year  January change  Year change  1993  0.7%  7.1%  1994  3.3%  -1.5%  1995  2.4%  34.1%  1996  3.3%  20.3%  1997  6.1%  31.0%  1998  1.0%  26.7%  1999  4.1%  19.5%  2000  -5.1  -10.1%  2001  3.5%  -13.0%  2002  -1.6%  -23.4%*   * as of 12/30/02  Sources: Stock Trader's Almanac, CNN/Money

The January Barometer has had an even better record than the first five-days method. Since 1950, there have been only four significant errors. This does not include six years when the market was essentially flat, in a range between down 5 percent and up 5 percent for the year.

The S&P 500 was up slightly in January 1966 but finished down 13 percent. In 1968 and 1982, the market was down in January but went on to a more than 5 percent gain. The only odd-numbered year blemish was 2001, further proof of how this latest bear market has bucked a lot of historical trends. The S&P 500 increased 3.5 percent in January 2001 but wound up losing 13 percent for the whole year.

But since stocks tend to go up far more often than not -- although you'd never guess that from the way the market has performed the past three years -- it seems that all these January indicators might be nothing more than coincidence.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has increased 38 times and fallen just 15. So if the market is up in January, it makes sense for it to be up for the year because the market has gone up more than 70 percent of the time during the past half century.

In other words, these January quirks may be fun to look at but that's all they are: quirks.