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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Clint Eastwood might soon be thinking he should have called his latest flick 'Ten Million Dollar Baby.'
If the odds makers are right and the Eastwood-directed boxing film gets a few top Oscar nods next week, 'Million Dollar Baby' is likely to get millions of dollars in return.
It's Academy Award season again, with 2002 best-actor winner Adrien Brody due to announce early Tuesday the nominations for 10 out of 24 categories recognized.
For movies that get a best picture, best actor or best actress nod, there's a payoff at the box office.
Far and away the most lucrative nomination is for best picture, worth an estimated $11 million in added domestic ticket sales. That estimate, adjusted for today's ticket prices, is based on a 2001 study by Colby College economics professor Randy Nelson.
"Even if you get a nomination for best picture but have no chance in hell of winning you can reap incredible profits at the box office," said Gitesh Pandya, an analyst with BoxOfficeGuru.com
Films with best actor and best actress candidates also get a box office lift, albeit a much smaller one. The top acting nominations should add just over $1 million in ticket sales per film.
The box office boon is one reason the Academy Awards are often likened to the 'Good Housekeeping seal of approval.'
Unfortunately for nominees in categories below the top three, the promise of a golden Oscar statuette is likely to be just a source of pride, not one of cash.
"For a best supporting actor or actress, a nomination is virtually worthless," said Nelson. Nor does it mean a boost for the salaries that the nominated actors command.
A brief bonanza
Nelson said the box office hike will be limited to the interval between Tuesday, the day the nominations are announced, and the Feb. 27 awards telecast.
Nelson's analysis also assumes that the film was released in the fourth quarter and is still in theaters. It also does not factor in the impact on ticket sales overseas or DVD revenues.
Among the top category nominees, the windfall is likely to be bigger for small movies more than blockbusters. Nelson and box office analysts say that blockbusters nominated for best picture see little, if any, boost because they are so popular that movie buffs have already flocked to see them by the time the nominations are announced. That's what happened to 'Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King' last year and its prequel in 2003.
Instead the big beneficiaries tend to be movies that have been middling box office performers. Paul Dergarabedian, the president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations, estimates that films with less than $50 million in domestic ticket sales could see their box office hauls double with a best picture nominee.
Among the 2004 films that analysts say have a good shot at a top nod, the big winners could be 'Million Dollar Baby,' and 'Sideways,' the comedy about two middle-aged men touring California's wine country.
'Million Dollar Baby,' a Warner Bros. film, sold $6.5 million worth of domestic tickets between its mid-December release and Jan. 19, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. 'Sideways,' a Fox Searchlight production, has pulled in sales of $29 million during its three month-old release.
Other oft-mentioned contenders include 'Finding Neverland' and 'The Aviator.' Both are Miramax pictures based on the lives of flamboyant men, one the author of 'Peter Pan' and the other the Hollywood luminary Howard Hughes.
On the flip side, another best picture contender -- 'The Incredibles' from Walt Disney (Research) and Pixar Animation (Research) -- will get bragging rights if the nomination comes through, but little else. The computer animation flick about a family of superheroes qualifies for the blockbuster exception. With $257 million in North American ticket sales, 'The Incredibles' doesn't need an Oscar nod to draw audiences.
Will 'Ray' DVD sales sing?
There are exceptions to Nelson's general rule. A handful of Oscar nominations, including one for best picture, didn't help either 'The Thin Red Line' in 1998 or 'The Insider' in 1999 at the box office, said Dergarabedian. Both were fourth-quarter releases, with small but decent box office draws, and yet Oscar contention did not excite movie goers.
One 2004 top contender that's unlikely to see a box office boost from a nomination is Universal's 'Ray.' With $73 million in box office revenues, the Ray Charles biopic is unlikely to give the General Electric- (Research)owned studio much of a lift from either a best picture nomination or best actor nod for Jamie Foxx, analysts say. That's because the movie's theater run is all but over with the DVD version due out Feb. 1, a week after the nominations.
"The timing is such that Universal is certain 'Ray' is going to get some nominations," said Scott Hettrick, the editor-in-chief of DVD Exclusive, a monthly trade magazine. "It will be in consumers' hands and in stores throughout the whole nominations period. That's the strategy they came up with" to capitalize on a best actor or best picture nomination.
Hettrick, however, thinks the impact of an Oscar nomination on DVD sales is minimal for movies already on video or those whose DVD release comes after the ceremony.
As for the box office, Nelson notes that the size of Oscar bump is largely determined by theater owners, not consumers. "The primary driving force for the increase in revenues was the spike in the number of screens on which (nominated) films appeared," he said.
"It's the theater owners actively competing for films that are going to provide the biggest box office boosts," said Nelson.
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