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Leading indicators fall
Basket of forward-looking economic reports weaker than expected in January, research group says.
February 17, 2005: 10:56 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A basket of leading U.S. economic indicators edged lower in January, a research group said Thursday, indicating that the economy was continuing to expand in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term average growth rate.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent to 115.6 after two months of increases. The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Briefing.com was a 0.2 percent decline.

December's increase was revised slightly higher to 0.3 percent.

Four of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in January, including gains in average weekly manufacturing hours, real money supply, building permits and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods.

The indicators showing weakness were vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, stock prices, interest rate spread and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. The other indicator, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, was unchanged.

The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators held steady in January after rising 1.1 percent in December. Positive contributors were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production.

The index of lagging indicators was flat in January after falling 0.7 percent in December and 0.2 percent in November.

Stock prices were lower after the report cast some doubt about the outlook for the nation's economy going forward. Long-term Treasury prices fell.  Top of page

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