NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Chock full of clues on where the economy is and where it's heading, next week could prove key for investors seeking that elusive middle ground -- good growth, little inflation.
Reports are due on personal income and spending, the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy, factory orders and productivity, among others. (Click here for a full lineup.) But the biggie is Friday's employment report.
"As we look out at the month of March, it's going to be about the market trying to gauge how aggressive the economy is growing, and what the Federal Reserve is going to do about rates," said Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Wachovia Securities.
Wall Street has had a mixed few weeks, with signs of inflation and higher interest rates, including rising commodity prices and the recent read on producer prices. But last week's mostly in-line read on consumer prices showed that inflation concerns may have been overstated in the near term.
A report Friday showing faster than expected economic growth in the fourth-quarter helped lift the major stock gauges last week. Currently, the S&P 500 stands at its highs of the year, and the Dow is close to its. The Nasdaq continues to struggle with worries about tech stock valuations.
Fourth quarter earnings have come in above estimates overall, but the first-quarter earnings are likely to slow. The first-quarter pre-announcement period has already begun, but doesn't take off in earnest until the middle of March.
Strong gains expected
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect employers to have added around 225,000 jobs to their payrolls in February after adding 146,000 in January.
There is the potential for the number to come in higher than expected, analysts say, due to fairly contained reads on weekly unemployment claims over the past month. A very strong number would certainly be a catalyst for a stock advance.
However, "falling weekly employment data hasn't really produced a big rise in the monthly numbers yet, so investors and analysts would have the right to be wary of a particularly strong number," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke.
The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 5.3 percent, from 5.2 percent in January.
As for the week's other big economic reports, ISM manufacturing will be important, and Thursday's revised read on productivity may garner more attention than in the past, Sheldon added, because Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has said that he will be watching that number.
"The key for next week is that the economic data show strong growth and only moderate inflation," Sheldon added.
Key events in the week ahead
- Personal income and spending figures are due from the Commerce Department on Monday. Income is expected to have fallen 2.6 percent in January, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Income rose 3.7 percent in December. Spending likely rose 0.1 percent in the month, after rising 0.8 percent last month.
- Also due Monday is the Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturing read. PMI is expected to have fallen to 60.0 in February from 62.4 in January.
- New home sales, due Monday, are expected to have risen to a 1.125 million unit annual rate in January from a 1.098 million unit annual rate in December.
- Tuesday's read on construction spending is expected to show a rise of 0.6 percent for January, according to estimates. Spending rose 1.1 percent in December.
- The Institute for Supply Management releases reports on the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy on Tuesday and Thursday. The manufacturing index, due first, is expected to have risen to 57.0 in February from 56.4 in January. The services index likely rose to 60.0 from 59.2 in January.
- Thursday brings the revised read on fourth-quarter productivity, expected to show a rise of 1.3 percent following an earlier read that showed a rise of 0.8 percent.
- The revised read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, due Friday, is expected to have risen to 94.9 in February from an earlier read of 94.2, according to estimates.
- Factory orders for January, due Friday, likely rose 0.3 percent, just as they did in December, economists estimate.
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