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Bulls face a test
Dow, S&P 500 start the week at more than 3-1/2 yr. highs. Can stocks keep rising with less to go on?
March 5, 2005: 6:00 PM EST
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - After getting what it wanted last week -- signs of strong growth, yet little inflation -- the stock market jumped, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to levels not seen in 3-1/2 years.

After the whirlwind that was last week, the week ahead may seem less dramatic to some investors. While the week is expected to bring little market-moving economic news or earnings, it will pose an interesting question to Wall Street: namely, is sentiment bullish enough now to sustain gains even amid the absence of new bullish indicators?

"The risk next week is that there is no definite market-moving news to keep the momentum going," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "There is also the possibility that crude oil, which is near its all-time highs, at some point begins to shock people. But in the short term, I don't see what there is out there that would derail the positive momentum."

Interest-rate focused investors breathed a sigh of relief last week that with the exception of a surprise jump in a regional manufacturing indicator at the beginning of the week, most economic news supported the idea that the economy is growing fast, but not too fast.

That belief was punctuated by Friday's surprising strong jump in payrolls for the month of February, which finally pushed the Dow and S&P 500 above their December highs into territory not seen since the summer of 2001.

"I think there is a belief that overall the economy is moving forward, but not sprinting, and that the Fed is not going to speed up the pace of rate hikes," Ghriskey added. "Meanwhile, earnings growth has topped estimates, and the market currently is not moving so much in response to the higher oil prices."

"I think all these factors are contributing to an environment where, despite rising oil prices, the market wants to go higher," he added.

The inflation equation

Employers added 262,000 to payrolls in February, after a downwardly revised 132,000 gain in January, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists had forecast 225,000 new jobs on average, according to a survey by Briefing.com. In addition, the average hourly earnings held steady from the previous month.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 5.4 percent from 5.2 percent in January. Economists thought it would hold steady. However, the miss didn't seem to unsettle stock investors in the least, as a broad-based rally took place. Bond yields, which have surged over the last few months on bets that inflation is on the rise, turned around.

"What the market liked in the jobs report was that the average hourly earnings didn't go up, even though we added new jobs, so there's certainly no wage inflation," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But I wouldn't say the same thing about commodity inflation."

Commodity prices have been rising, with crude oil up and commodity-related stocks and sectors leading the recent stock market rally. As such, Mendelsohn says the weekly oil inventory data, due Wednesday morning, will be particularly of interest, as most investors don't want to see crude prices top the all-time high settlement price of $55.17, which was hit in late October.

Friday's read on the January trade gap will be relevant too, as will Treasury auctions in five and ten-year notes later in the week, to give a better sense of international investors' interest in bonds.

Some market watchers will also be keeping an eye on whether the Dow can top the 11,000 level. "11,000 is important on a psychological level in that it's a big, round number," Mendelsohn added. "But what's more important is that they took out the December highs. Now people will be looking to see if they can take out the next level."

Key events in the week ahead

  • Chipmaker Texas Instruments (Research) provides its mid-quarter update after the close Monday, and investors will be listening closely for what it has to say about demand for its products going forward, and the broader tech spending environment. Fellow semiconductors Xilinx (Research) and Altera (Research) issue their mid-quarter updates later in the week.
  • On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases its sporadic "Beige Book," survey of economic activity in 12 districts around the country. The survey plays a role in the central bank's decisions on interest rates.
  • Due to the surprise jump in monthly payrolls Friday, next week's weekly unemployment claims report, due Thursday, will be of greater interest than usual. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment in the week ended 3/5 is expected to hold steady at 310,000, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
  • The January read on wholesale inventories is due Thursday. Inventories likely rose 0.7 percent in the month, according to estimates, after rising 0.4 percent in the previous month.
  • The January trade balance is due early Friday. Economists expect the deficit narrowed to $56.0 billion from $56.4 billion in the previous month.
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