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Disney: Not the time to buy
New CEO Bob Iger is a plus, but Disney's best prospects are already reflected in the stock price.
March 15, 2005: 8:29 AM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Over the past few years, Disney has been conspicuous for the viciousness -- and the self-destructiveness -- of its corporate politics. Ever since longtime CEO Michael Eisner's falling out with former film unit chief Jeffrey Katzenberg in the late 1990s, infighting at Disney has tarnished a company with sterling media assets.

To a great extent, the source of these problems has been Eisner. Most recently, he soured relations with Steve Jobs, CEO of key Disney business partner Pixar, by making public comments that Jobs viewed as a swipe at Apple, of which he is also CEO. Worst of all, the comments could easily have been avoided.

However difficult Eisner may be, he also demonstrated considerable brilliance as Disney's CEO after he was hired in 1984. But as Disney's (Research) share price stagnated in the late 1990s, pressure built at Disney to have Eisner replaced. And Roy Disney, who was one of the stockholders responsible for hiring Eisner originally, became one of those most active in promoting Eisner's departure.

Now Roy Disney has gotten his way -- at least up to a point. Taking the helm will be Bob Iger, who is highly regarded in his role as the current company president. But some shareholders are disappointed that the opportunity was lost to bring in an outsider who would take a fresh look at the company and really shake things up.

Those who applaud the choice see Iger as a conciliator and diplomat, a man who can mend relationships that Eisner shredded. A tireless worker, Iger could also improve returns on Disney's superb assets.

Based on comments to date, Iger sounds like a Good Government type, talking about decentralizing, encouraging an entrepreneurial culture, promoting integrity and discouraging corporate politics. If this platform can bring stability to a company that has experienced too much turmoil recently, Iger will certainly make a contribution.

What about the stock?

From the investor's point of view, however, the question is whether this transition makes Disney stock a buy. And frankly, I'm not that enthusiastic. I think Disney is a perfectly sound holding for long-term growth investors, but I see no real reason to add it to a portfolio at this moment.

It's true that Disney owns a collection of fine assets. But the time to buy the stock as an asset play was last August when it was trading at $21. In the past six months, Disney has run up by more than 30 percent, and at $28, it no longer is cheap. Currently, the stock trades at nearly 22 times earnings for the fiscal year ending in September and a 19 P/E based on projections for the following year.

By historical standards, those P/Es may not sound outrageous for Disney, which has often traded at a premium over other media stocks. But one has to ask whether such a premium is justified by the current state of Disney's businesses.

The studio no longer has its crushing dominance in animation and needs to rebuild its relationship with its partner Pixar. Disney is also losing Harvey and Bob Weinstein of Miramax. And although Disney will keep the Miramax name and film rights, it's the Weinsteins who made the hit movies.

Traditionally, Disney's theme parks also were great businesses. But they have never fully recovered from the loss of business following 9/11 and fears of more terrorism.

Disney's results for the most recent quarter were hailed after they beat analysts' expectations by 13 percent. But the actual results were only 5 percent ahead of year-earlier levels.

Disney has given strong guidance that earnings growth will be in the double digits through 2007. That's certainly achievable, but it also builds expectations into the stock price that could just as easily lead to disappointments.

My view is that Iger can make a lot of constructive changes, at least as a transitional CEO. Whether he's the guy to restore the dynamism that Disney enjoyed when the company was at its best is another question.

New CEOs, particularly consolidators, typically spend their first year neatening and straightening. I'd be surprised if Disney stock, which has already enjoyed a sizable runup, can make a lot more headway until Iger shows he can create new opportunities as well as repair old ones.

Money Magazine: 3 buys from the last bull market.


Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Monday.  Top of page

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