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The perplexity of oil
Prices are racing up despite OPEC and fundamentals ... topping out, anyone?
March 17, 2005: 8:36 AM EST

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil over 57 bucks a barrel just one day after OPEC "surprised" the market with a small production boost ... it almost makes you laugh, except that it's scary to see how quickly prices have moved higher without any big disruption or global event behind them.

My favorite OPEC quote of the day comes from Iran's oil minister, Bigan Zangeneh, courtesy of the New York Times: "What more can we do? The market has confused us."

Now doesn't that also sound like a bad joke, especially if this man is serious?

Anyone who's talked an oil trader or even read a story about the oil market recently has been told the same story. Speculators and traders of all kinds are jumping into the oil market, actually into commodities generally, because these prices are going up, up, up while the regular old bond, stock, and currency markets are either stuck in a range or getting beat up.

Oil lately has looked like a free ride to instant riches. I even heard from one guy recently that more and more people – think doctors, dentists, other affluent types -- are including oil contracts in their investment portfolios! Could a top in this market be far away?

In fairness to Mr, Zangahen, I am sure he knows all this about the oil market and much more. But from his vantage point, it must be frustrating to realize that even the group that is supposed to be the biggest most powerful player in the petroleum market -- the cartel able to turn off or open wide the oil spigots with the nod of the head – cannot get the bit out of the market's mouth right now.

Also, it looks like OPEC has misgauged the market given that just a few weeks ago its members were mulling over a production cut to keep prices from tumbling in the second quarter, a time when winter demand is waning and the summer driving season has not yet hit. Surprise! Instead of slumping, here came new record highs and folks still talking about sixty dollar crude oil.

What revved up the market yesterday was the latest weekly report showing that gas stocks are getting much tighter than people thought, even as crude oil stock are building. In fact, some wise old oil heads are skeptical that prices can stay this high and more than one says: "Don't worry, we'll definitely see oil at 30 bucks a barrel again."

What no one can gauge for sure, not the OPEC ministers, not the NYMEX traders, and certainly not the dentists and doctors at the golf club, is supply and demand. OPEC is pumping out a lot of the former and the rest of the world is gobbling up a lot of the latter. With apologies to the late Henny Youngman, Take my oil conundrum, please!

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-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.  Top of page

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