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Wholesale price gains modest
Producer Price Index up 0.4%; core PPI climbs only 0.1%, signaling tame inflation for now.
March 22, 2005: 10:44 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wholesale price increases for February came in roughly in line with Wall Street expectations Tuesday, tempering inflation concerns.

The Producer Price Index, the government's key measure of wholesale prices, rose 0.4 percent in February, compared to the 0.3 percent increase seen in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 0.3 percent rise in February.

The so-called core PPI, which excludes often volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.1 percent. A 0.8 percent rise in the core PPI in January shook markets by raising new inflation concerns.

Economists had forecast only a 0.1 percent rise in the core PPI in February.

But even with the relatively modest month-to-month rises in wholesale prices, Tuesday's reading contains some troubling signs of inflationary pressures.

With Tuesday's numbers, overall wholesale prices were up a not-so-modest 4.7 percent over the past 12 months, while the core PPI increased 2.8 percent during that same period.

The change in the core PPI is the biggest 12-month increase since May 1992. Both the overall and core PPI gains also outstrip the 12-month rise in the Consumer Price Index, which measures overall retail prices, and the core CPI, which follows retail prices less food and energy.

The report comes the same day that the Federal Open Market Committee meets, and a day ahead of the CPI report.

The Federal Reserve's policy makers are widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point in a move to keep prices stable. It would reflect the seventh straight Fed meeting to raise rates by that amount since it started tightening in June.

But it's the central bank's statement on the pace of future rate hikes that is expected to get the most attention, especially whether it not it retains language that it expects future rate hikes to be at a measured pace.

"I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with JPMorgan Fleming Asset Management. "The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart."

While some economists are expecting the measured pace language to be removed in this month's statement, Chan said this report will support those at the Fed who want to retain the language for now. He expects it to stay for at least one more meeting.

Bond prices barely moved following the report, reflecting that bond traders views of the Fed action were not changed by the inflation reading.

In January, food and energy price declines kept the overall index in check while the core CPI soared past forecasts. Just the opposite occurred in February. Energy prices were up 1.4 percent in the month, compared to a 1.0 percent decline, and food prices were up 0.8 percent compared to a 0.2 percent decline in January.

In February, declines in some big ticket items kept the overall PPI low in the face of higher food and energy costs. Durable goods prices fell 0.5 percent, led by a 0.6 percent decline in vehicle prices. Prices for capital goods fell 0.3 percent.

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For more on the Federal Reserve, click here.  Top of page

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