NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Looking ahead to the week's economic reports, it's interesting to see that economists are forecasting a very healthy increase in retail sales for March AND a slight downturn in consumer sentiment.

Does this mean that even though we find higher gas prices depressing and aggravating, they aren't really hurting us all that much yet?

There's no doubt people are somewhat incensed over higher gas prices, but it's clear for many affluent Americans they aren't getting their pocketbooks pinched all that much on a proportional basis. Who this hurts most is people with lower incomes and high family costs, people on fixed incomes who can't get a raise to offset it, and businesses who use a lot of energy.

That's why it's so hard to know if rising energy prices mean more inflation, because businesses will pass them on as higher retail prices and affluent people will pay them. Or if they mean enough of a cut in disposable income for enough families that spending slows and that slows the economy.

Right now policymakers like those at the Federal Reserve seem much more worried about the inflation bogeyman than the recession demon.

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-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.