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Investors hold back
Stock gauges can't find a catalyst as optimism about interest rates is countered by oil spike.
June 22, 2005: 5:53 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks struggled Wednesday, failing to find much direction as oil prices hovered near record highs and investors prepared for next week's pivotal Federal Reserve meeting.

Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures pointed to a flat open Thursday, when fair value is taken into account.

The Dow Jones industrial average (down 11.74 to 10,587.93, Charts) lost a couple of points while the Standard & Poor's 500 (up 0.27 to 1,213.88, Charts) index and the Nasdaq composite (up 0.96 to 2,092.03, Charts) both ended near unchanged.

Ford's profit warning sent the auto sector reeling, while a solid earnings report and forecast from contract electronics manufacturer Jabil Circuits helped keep the techs afloat.

But the news from those companies was overshadowed by persistent concerns about oil prices and interest rate policy. On the upside, a Treasury bond market rally lent some support to stocks.

"What was most interesting about today was the movement in the bond market," said John Davidson, president and CEO at PartnerRe Asset Management.

"That jump had to do with the possibility of the European central bankers lowering rates and also expectations that those holding dollars should buy Treasuries," he added.

Treasury bonds rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.94 percent from 4.03 percent late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The bond rally happened as investors bet global growth would slow, Davidson added. That same expectation seemed to support stocks, with investors betting that slower growth and mild inflation mean the Fed can ease off its rate-hiking campaign sooner rather than later.

That belief got a shot in the arm Tuesday when influential bond fund manager Bill Gross said the Fed was near the end of its rate hikes and might even start cutting rates later this year.

Fed policy-makers meet next week and are widely expected to boost the fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 3.25 percent. Many Fed watchers expect another quarter-point hike in August.

"I think there is a wait-and-see attitude about next week's Fed meeting," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at CyberTrader. "Investors are thinking that perhaps the recent weaker-than-expected employment report means that the Fed is near the end of its rate-hiking cycle, but I don't think that's the case."

Nonetheless, the hopes about rates helped to keep stocks stable, even amid the threat of higher oil prices.

U.S. light crude for August delivery fell 95 cents to $58.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a mixed weekly oil inventory report.

Crude hit record trading highs Monday and Tuesday, and investors remain worried about the surging price of oil and how it will impact economic growth, corporate profits and consumer spending.

Thursday brings earnings reports from FedEx, Rite Aid and A.G. Edwards, while investors will also eye reports on weekly jobless claims and May existing home sales.

What moved?

A few second-quarter earnings and pre-announcements were released, but failed to give the market much direction.

Ford Motor (down $0.49 to $10.68, Research) warned late Tuesday that 2005 earnings won't meet expectations and said it will cut another 5 percent of its salaried work force as it struggles with falling North American vehicle sales.

Ford stock sank 4.4 percent in active New York Stock Exchange trade. Rival General Motors (down $1.09 to $34.82, Research) slipped too.

Morgan Stanley (down $0.45 to $50.52, Research) reported quarterly earning that fell from a year ago and missed forecasts. But the investment bank also reported revenue that beat estimates, and that seemed to temper the disappointment about the earnings, leaving the stock just modestly lower.

Shares of Ameritrade (up $3.05 to $17.87, Research) popped more than 20 percent after it said it will buy rival online brokerage TD Waterhouse USA from Toronto-Dominion Bank (up $0.54 to $44.15, Research) in an all-stock deal worth $2.9 billion.

Jabil Circuits (up $2.98 to $31.42, Research), a maker of circuit board assemblies for tech companies, reported improved quarterly earnings and revenue late Tuesday and also increased its forecast for the rest of the fiscal year. That sent shares 10.5 percent higher.

Eyetech Pharmaceuticals (up $0.45 to $13.44, Research), a drugmaker, climbed 3.5 percent in active Nasdaq trading after boosting its 2005 sales forecast for its vision loss treatment.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by more than nine to seven on volume of nearly 1.35 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers edged decliners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.70 billion shares.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

COMEX gold fell 80 cents to settle at $439.70 an ounce.  Top of page

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